太空边缘的AI

Executive SummaryThe U.S. Space Force faces growing threats from near-peer adversaries capable oftargeting U.S. satellites, underscoring the need for enhanced space control capabilities.This paper examines how artificial intelligence can augment space domain awareness(SDA) and orbital warfare functions to help avoid operational surprise in orbit.Integrating AI,both on groundsystemsand onboard satellites,is essentialtoaccelerating decision-making, enhancingsatellitesurvivability, and maintaining domainknowledgein an increasingly contested environment.This analysis reviewsemergingAI applicationsupon two space mission areasandproposes additional areas for research.FortheSDAmission area, it highlights thepowerof neural networks and explainable AI tools,such asLocalInterpretableModel-AgnosticExplanations(LIME),toacceleratespace object detection andimprovesensortasking efficiency. Fortheorbital warfaremissionarea, it explores how onboard AIagents canbe applied toautonomously manageengagements through rendezvousand proximity operations (RPOs),optimizeother satellitesubsystems,and enableresponsivepayload tasking—within the constraints of satellite power and computelimitations.These findings are informed by recently published technical papers anddefense policy documents.The paper concludes withrecommendationsfor responsible AI adoption into the abovemission areas. These includethe immediate adoption ofsome more mature SDAmodels, andprocuring upgradeable satellite systems with sufficient onboard compute.This paper also recommends key policy considerations, such asdefining boundaries foron-orbit autonomy, and establishing rigorous test and evaluation protocolsto ensuretransparent and auditable AI.In aggregate, implementing all or some of these effortscould significantly increase satellite survivability, and create opportunities to gain analgorithmically informed advantage to secure spacesuperiority. Center for Security and Emerging Technology |1 Table of ContentsExecutive Summary................................................................................................................................1Introduction...............................................................................................................................................3Accelerating the Sensemaking Process––AI for SDA.................................................................5WhatIs SDA and HowIsIt Relevant to Space Control?.......................................................5Challenges with SDA........................................................................................................................6How AI Can Enhance SDA..............................................................................................................7What Challenges Remain?..............................................................................................................9Gaining Maneuver Advantage––AI for Orbital Warfare..........................................................12What is RPO andWhyIsIt Relevant to Space Control?....................................................12Challenges with RPO.....................................................................................................................13How AICan Enhance Orbital Warfare.....................................................................................14What Challenges Remain?...........................................................................................................17Onboard Compute is Limited by Hardware…..............................................................................19…but this is Quickly Changing.....................................................................................................19What IsPossible?............................................................................................................................19Conclusion..............................................................................................................................................21Author…………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………….23Endnotes.................................................................................................................................................24 Center for Security and Emerging Technology |2 IntroductionIn recent years, space has become an increasingly contested, degraded, andoperationally limited domain.Chief of Space Operations for the U.S. Space ForceGeneral B. Chance Saltzman has highlighted the dramatic rise in competitors’ use ofspaceand theexponential rise in hazards—such as orbital debris—that congest criticalorbital regimes.1This evolving landscape underscores the importance of developingadvancedtechnologiesand associated concepts of operationsto maintain a strategicadvantageagainstadversarynations.Applicationsand fieldingof such technologiestospace control—activities required to contest and control the space domain—isinevitable.Growing com