农产品投资周报

F03117830Z0019508 目录 01PART ONE主要观点及策略概述 :111131南北港库存逐步去化；2/基差中性621C09C09 167 87100%8 66.8%9 25.3%66%111245124/豆粕基差预期承压，月差暂无驱动；菜粕基差维持低位震荡。12M11M01M09USDAM11M01 15616212/1基差稳中偏弱运行；（2）油脂月差逻辑暂不明朗；（3）跨品种策价差震荡。12P2601- 2025420+2.1%1-4+4.1%+10.1%+26.7%1-4+12.8%APP20/20256 19220.862025.171.14%09/11-111-1 2025549164.46130707// 全国商业库存去化速度较快，全国工业库存维持高位。/1281000-1200（2）本周郑棉9-1月差持续走强。 11屠企和冻品库容率均处于同期低位。/1 玉米（C） PART TWO //16001900220025002800310001/0202/0203/0404/0405/0506/0507/0608/0609/06201920202021202320242025180024003000360001/0202/0203/0404/0405/0506/0507/0608/0609/0620192020202120222023 Wind -400408012016020001/0102/0103/0304/0305/0406/0407/0508/0509/0510/0611/0612/07201920202021202220232024202505001000150020002500300001/0102/0103/032019 -/030609012015001/0102/0103/032020-6006012018024030001/0202/0203/0404/0405/0506/0507/0608/0609/0610/0711/0712/082019202020212022202320242025 401002003004005006001月2月3月4月5月6月7月8月9月10月11月12月202020212022202320242025040801201602001月2月3月4月5月20202021040801201602001月2月3月4月5月6月7月8月9月10月11月12月202020212022202320242025-800-4000400800120001/0102/0103/0304/0305/0406/0420202021 40700140021002800350042001月2月3月4月5月6月7月202120222023 /-1000-50005001000150001/0102/0103/0404/0405/0506/0507/0608/0609/0610/0711/0712/0820212022202320242025-1800-1200-60006001200180001/0102/0103/0404/0405/052021 /0100020003000400050006000-9-6-3036901/0102/0103/0304/0305/0406/0407/0508/0509/0510/0611/0612/07202020212022202320242025 /-1.0-0.50.00.51.01.52.001/0102/0103/0304/0305/0406/0407/0508/0509/0510/0611/0612/07202020212022202320242025 030609012015001/0102/0103/0304/0305/0406/0407/0508/0509/0510/0611/0612/0720202021202220232024202502040608001/0102/0103/03202009182736455401/0102/0103/0304/0305/0406/0407/0508/0509/0510/0611/0612/07202020212022202320242025020040060080001/0102/012020 %F55%02040608001/0102/0103/0304/0305/0406/0407/0508/0509/0520192020202120222023-18-9091827364513/1214/11 15/10 16/09 17/08 18/07 19/06 20/05 21/04 22/03 23/02 23/12 24/11 %%02040608001/0102040608001/0102/0103/0304/0305/0406/0407/0508/0509/0510/0611/0612/072021202220232024202502004006008001000120001/0103006009001200150001/0102/0103/0304/0305/0406/0407/0508/0509/0510/0611/0612/07202020212022202320242025 %-/02040608010001/0102/0103/0404/0405/0506/0507/0608/0609/0610/0711/0712/08202020212022202320242025-1200-800-400040080001/0102/0103/0304/0305/0406/0407/0508/0509/0510/0611/0612/07202020212022202320242025 /%-600-400-200020040060001/0102/01202020002200240026002800300032003400360001/0102/0103/0404/0405/0506/0507/0608/0609/0610/0711/0712/0820202021202220232024202502040608010001/0102/0103/0304/0305/0406/0407/0508/0509/0510/0611/0612/07202020212022202320242025-9009018027036045001/0102/0103/032020 0400008000012000016000020000024000001/0102/0103/03 粕类（M&RM） PARTTHREE Wind Wind M05RM050200000400000600000800000100000005/2106/2107/2208/2209/2210/2311/2312/2401/242020/212021/222022/2305000001000000150000020000002500000300000005/2106/2107/2208/2209/2210/2311/2312/2401/242020/212021/222022/23 Wind C F T C-300000-200000-1000000100000200000300000161116212631364146512020202120222023202420250%5%10%15%20%25%30%-120000-6000006000012000018000016111621263136414651202020212022202320242025-150000-100000-5000050000100000150000 WIND Wind 62 0 2 5 / 2 6Wind%%%%19.9%20.2%23.1%18.1%18.5%18.0%18.9%20.5%21.05%20.45%15%17%19%21%23%2016/20172017/20182018/20192019/20202020/20212021/20222022/20232023/20242024/20252025/20267.2%10.2%23.4%13.6%5.7%6.1%6.1%8.3%8.0%6.7%0%5%10%15%20%25%2016/20172017/20182018/20192019/20202020/20212021/20222022/20232023/20242024/20252025/202630.7%26.8%27.7%14.4%22.4%20.6%24.1%18.3%20.2%19.7%10%15%20%25%30%2016/20172017/20182018/20192019/20202020/20212021/20222022/20232023/20242024/20252025/202647.5%51.9%51.0%47.4%47.1%48.5%41.7%49.1%45.6%46.3%30%35%40%45%50%55%60%2016/20172017/20182018/20192019/20202020/20212021/20222022/20232023/20242024/20252025/2026 6.4%9.4%11.4%9.5%8.6%8.0%0%3%6%9%12%15%2016/20172017/2018 2018/2019 2019/2020 2020/2021 2021/2022 2022/2023 2023/2024 2024/2025 2025/20260200004000060000800001000002016/20172017/2018 2018/2019 2019/2020 2020/2021 2021/2022 2022/2023 2023/2024 2024/2025 2025/2026 USDAFAS Wind %0%20%40%60%80%100%04/1204/1904/2605/0305/1005/1705/2405/3106/0706/1406/2106/2820202021202220232024202540%50%60%70%80%05/3106/10 06/20 06/30 07/10 07/20 07/30 08/09 08/19 08/29 09/08 09/18 09/28 10/08 10/18 /48%/0246801/0102/0103/0404/0405/0506/0507/0608/0609/0610/0711/0712/08202020212022202320242025010020030040050060001/0102/0103/0404/0405/0506/0507/0608/0609/0610/0711/0712/08202020212022202320242025 5NOPA120130140150160170180190200210220SepOctNovDecJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAug2019/202020/212021/222022/232023/242024/254004505005506006507009月10月2019/20 -200020040060080009/0110/0211/0212/0301/0302/0303/0604/0605/0706/0707/0808/082020/212021/222022/232023/242024/250200040006000800009/0110/0211/0212/0301/0302/032020/212021/22-6006012018024030009/0110/0211/0212/0301/0302/0303/0604/0605/0706/0707/0808/