《粮食展望》——全球粮食市场半年度报告

Biannual report on global food markets June 2025 Food Outlook Biannual report on global food markets Required citation:FAO. 2025.Food Outlook – Biannual report on global food markets.Food Outlook, June 2025. Rome. https://doi.org/10.4060/cd5655en The designations employed and the presentation of material in this information product do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on thepart of the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) concerning the legal or development status of any country, territory, city orarea or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries. The mention of specific companies or products of manufacturers,whether or not these have been patented, does not imply that these have been endorsed or recommended by FAO in preference to others of a similarnature that are not mentioned. ISSN 0251-1959 [Print]ISSN 1560-8182 [Online]ISBN 978-92-5-139879-1 © FAO, 2025 Some rights reserved. This work is made available under the Creative Commons Attribution- 4.0 International licence (CCBY 4.0: https://creativecommons. Under the terms of this licence, this work may be copied, redistributed and adapted, provided that the work is appropriately cited. In any use of this work,there should be no suggestion that FAO endorses any specific organization, products or services. The use of the FAO logo is not permitted. If a translationor adaptation of this work is created, it must include the following disclaimer along with the required citation: “This translation [or adaptation] was notcreated by the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO). FAO is not responsible for the content or accuracy of this translation [oradaptation]. The original [Language] edition shall be the authoritative edition.” Any dispute arising under this licence that cannot be settled amicably shall be referred to arbitration in accordance with the Arbitration Rules of the UnitedNations Commission on International Trade Law (UNCITRAL). The parties shall be bound by any arbitration award rendered as a result of such arbitrationas the final adjudication of such a dispute. Third-party materials.This Creative Commons licence CC BY 4.0 does not apply to non-FAO copyright materials included in this publication. Userswishing to reuse material from this work that is attributed to a third party, such as tables, figures or images, are responsible for determining whetherpermission is needed for that reuse and for obtaining permission from the copyright holder. The risk of claims resulting from infringement of any third-party-owned component in the work rests solely with the user. FAO photographs.FAO photographs that may appear in this work are not subject to the above-mentioned Creative Commons licence. Queries for theuse of any FAO photographs should be submitted to: photo-library@fao.org. Sales, rights and licensing. FAO information products are available on the FAO website (www.fao.org/publications) and print copies can be purchasedthrough the distributors listed there. For general enquiries about FAO publications please contact: publications@fao.org. Queries regarding rights andlicensing of publications should be submitted to: copyright@fao.org. Photo credits (left to right/top to bottom):©iStock/ AscentXmedia; ©FAO/Riccardo De Luca/; ©iStock/wlfella; ©iStock/Alexcrab; ©iStock/nespix; ©iStock/Zbynek Pospisil; ©FAO; ©iStock; ©iStock/ Alfribeiro; ©FAO; ©iStock/Coprid; ©FAO/Victor Sokolowicz; ©iStock Highlights FAO’s latest assessments indicate arelatively optimistic outlook for foodcommodity markets, with productionofall commodities,except sugar,anticipated to increase. However, theeffects of this growth on stock recovery willvary, depending on the delicate balancebetween supply and demand. Global foodcommodity production remains vulnerabletoweather conditions.Additionally,rising conflicts and geopolitical tensions,uncertainties in trade policy and relatedmeasures, and economic setbacks couldnegatively affect the trade outlook. Coarse grains Wheat After a tight season in 2024/25, coarsegrainprices are starting the 2025/26season above their average levels, ledbyhigher maize prices.FAO’s initialforecast for 2025/26 points to a potentialincrease in world coarse grain supplieswith an expected production rebound,which should lead to a partial recovery inglobal stock levels. In 2025/26, growth in wheat utilization isexpected to outpace a marginal increasein production, leading to a drawdownofglobal wheat stocks,especially inmajor exporting countries. Global wheattrade is forecast to partially recover fromtheprevious season’s decline,largelydrivenby an anticipated rebound inimport demand from Asia. Rice Meat Sugar Worldsugar production in 2024/25isforecast to decline on expectationsoflower outputs in major producingcountriesand to fall below globalconsumption,which is anticipated torise only modestly. Global sugar trade isalso predicted to contrac