6月初步结果显示进一步疲软

Preliminary June Results IndicateFurtherSoftening We present preliminary data from our June Barclays RealEstate A.G.E.N.T. Survey. Buyertrafficis weakeningsequentially into early June; Our Home Price Index suggestsdeclining home prices; Listings rise further. This reflects ~50%of the responses that we expect to receive for this edition. U.S. Homebuilding & Building ProductsPOSITIVE U.S. Homebuilding & BuildingProductsMatthew Bouley+1 212 526 9029matthew.bouley@barclays.comBCI, US We appreciate your5-star votein the 2025 Extel All-America Research Survey in theHomebuilders& Building Productscategory:Vote 5 Stars for Barclays » Elizabeth Langan+1 212 526 5960elizabeth.langan@barclays.comBCI, US Preliminary results from our June Real Estate A.G.E.N.T. suggest that the existing homemarket has diminished further into June, marking the end of the underwhelming SpringSelling Season of 2025. Perhaps most concerning, our Home Price Index has now fallen intothe low 30s in 1H June, a reading last seen in 2022, and before that you have to look backto 2011. In addition, our Home Listings Index read an anemic 5 points in 1H June (lowernumbers mean rising inventory in this index): 5 is the lowest reading in the 17-year historyof our index, suggesting extensive agent observations of rising inventory.The waning daysof Spring are illustrating a deterioration in housing activity. Inventory is continuing toclimb, setting up for incremental corrections in home values as the market tries to find aclearing price, a potentially cascading risk as we move past the peak of annual housing activityin the Spring. Anika Dholakia+1 212 526 8780anika.dholakia@barclays.comBCI, US Elaine Ku+1 212 526 7529elaine.ku@barclays.comBCI, US With earnings results upcoming from homebuilders LEN and KBH over the next two weeks, wethink further negative earnings revisions are likely, with cautious management commentary. Wethink that low investor sentiment is not in itself a reason to be contrarian, as the marketsoftensfurther, and believe we remain 'too early' to find an entry-point in homebuilder stocks. Thatentry-point likely requires a clearing of excess inventory, stabilization in home price trends,lower rates (while employment holds up), and calming of policy uncertainty. Our BuyerTrafficIndex is reading 24 thus far in June, -3 pts from May (-1 pts from 2H May).OurTrafficIndex has remained subdued throughout the year, declining from a 'peak' of 47in January, moderating further through the spring to reflect even slower-than-expected buyertraffic(a reading below 50 meanstrafficbelow agents' seasonal expectations). In May, 1H read29 while 2H read 25, followed by this 24 in 1H June. Our real-time read suggests agents aresimply observing weakening trends, compounded by rate volatility, while more availableinventory with list price reductions and a recovered stock market have not driven an uptick intraffic.Our agent contacts are largely citing high interest rates as limiting buyer urgency, but this is compounded by home prices that are seen to be too elevated, and overall macro uncertaintyacrosstariffsand job security impacting home buyer sentiment. FIGURE 1. Barclays Real Estate A.G.E.N.T. Survey Weekly BuyerTrafficIndex Levels Our Home Price Index is reading 33 in June, down -3 pts vs. 2H May, indicating that moreagents are observing sequential price declines.Readings below 50 in this index mean moreobservations of lower home prices sequentially. Our Home Price Index read 33 in 1H May and 36in 2H May, and the trend has remained below 50 since 1H April, indicating more agents areseeing home price reductions as the spring selling season fades into summer. Historically, theindex is very rarely in the low 30s: Other than 2022,a low 30s reading was last observed in2011 (Figure 4). Agent commentary reflects that high prices are restricting activity with a 'mismatch' betweenbuyer and seller price expectations. Higher interest rates are continuing to act as a constraint onaffordability,and many agents are anticipating that home values will have to fall, resetting tomore appropriately matchaffordability.Altogether, sluggishtraffictrends, coupled with still-elevated home prices and rates, and rising inventories (below) are likely to drive further homeprice reductions, in our view. FIGURE 3. Barclays Real Estate A.G.E.N.T. Survey Weekly Home Price Index Levels Our Listings Index fell to a reading of 5 thus far in June, down from 10 in May.In this index,readings below 50 mean more agents are seeing higher listings sequentially, so a reading of 5representsnearly ubiquitous observations of rising inventory from agents,and reflects thelowest reading we have registered in this Index ever (going back to 2008 | Figure 6).This meansthat we have never seen observations of rising listings to be this widespread across oursurveyed agents. Housing supply has continued to increase into June as sellers list homes, but home prices arelikely too high to find an