对提供商税收可能降至3.5%安全港的快速解读

USA | Healthcare Services Quick Take on the Potential Move to 3.5% SafeHarbor for Provider Taxes With the imminent release of the Senate Finance Committee's text of HCprovisions for OBBB, including changes to provider taxes, we're augmenting ourprior detailed provider tax analysis showing the EBITDA-NCI impacts of a "6% to2.5%" scenario to estimate impacts for a potential "6% to 3.5%" scenario. Notethat the actual impact should be less than our analysis suggests from statesbetween 2.5% and 3.5%. Est impacts: 6.4% for HCA, 7.0% for THC, 14.2% forCYH. Awaiting Senate Finance Committee Text & Possible Change to Provider Taxes.The SenateFinance Committee is expected to release the text of its reconciliation bill today, which will unveilthe extent of changes to the healthcare spending cuts and tax policy. One possible change couldbe a lowering of the safe harbor threshold for provider taxes from 6% to 3.5%. Analyzing the Impact on Hospitals if Safe Harbor is Lowered.To frame this, we are recycling ourprevious analysis on the potential impact on hospitals if the safe harbor threshold for provider taxesis lowered to 2.5% from 6% (based on CBO scoring). Given the lack of CBO scoring for a changeto 3.5%, we're making a simple adjustment to our prior analysis based on the relative sizing of thecuts (i.e. cut to 2.5% vs cut to 3.5%) to arrive at estimated EBITDA-NCI impacts on FY26 numbersfor each hospital from a move to a 3.5% provider tax safe harbor. Summarizing the analysis: •How we arrived at our prior 2.5% estimates: we allocated the CBO estimated $241B in savingsover 10 years from a cut to 2.5% based on provider tax levels of each state and the marketshare of staffed beds for public hospitals. Notably, we haircut the $241B by 20% to account fornon-hospital SDP/provider tax programs (e.g. SNFs). This analysis pointed to 2026E EBITDA-NCI impacts of 9.0%, 9.8%, and 19.8% for HCA, THC, and CYH, respectively.•Given a lack of CBO scoring for a 6% to 3.5% provider tax threshold scenario, we arebenchmarking off of this analysis to estimate EBITDA-NCI impacts in the "3.5%" scenario. Wedo this by taking a simple ratio of the prior overall cut (6% to 2.5%) vs. the newly proposed cut(6% to 3.5%) and adjusting our final figures for that ~28.5% delta. Based on this analysis, FY26EBITDA-NCI impacts would be 6.4%, 7.0%, and 14.2% for HCA, THC, CYH, respectively.•This "straight-line" approach represents a simplified version. In reality, we should see a greaterreduction in the EBITDA headwind moving from a "2.5%" scenario to a "3.5%" scenario, giventhat headwinds in states between a 2.5% and 3.5% provider tax level would actually move tozero rather than being cut by 28.5%, as illustrated in our high-level math. Brian Tanquilut * | Equity Analyst(615) 963-8338 | btanquilut@jefferies.com Jack Slevin, CFA * | Equity Analyst(212) 284-4686 | jslevin@jefferies.com Meghan Holtz * | Equity Associate+1 (212) 708-2876 | mholtz1@jefferies.com Cameron Harbilas * | Equity Associate+1 (615) 963-8319 | charbilas@jefferies.com Company Valuation/Risks Community Health Systems, Inc. Our PT is derived by applying a 9.0x EV/EBITDA multiple (in line with CYH's recent valuation range) to our FY25 EBITDA-NCI estimate. Risks includeelevated debt leverage. HCA Healthcare Our PT is derived by applying a 10.5x EV/EBITDA multiple (calculated using HCA's LT growth rate) to our FY25 EBITDA estimate.Risksinclude volumedeceleration and abrupt changes to the U.S. policy landscape. Tenet Healthcare Corp. Our PT is based on an ~8.5x EV/EBITDA-NCI multiple.Risksinclude an unexpected deterioration in volume trends and government reimbursementreductions. Analyst Certification: I, Brian Tanquilut, certify that all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject security(ies) and subjectcompany(ies). I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressedin this research report. I, Jack Slevin, CFA, certify that all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject security(ies) and subjectcompany(ies). I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressedin this research report. I, Meghan Holtz, certify that all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject security(ies) and subjectcompany(ies). I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressedin this research report. I, Cameron Harbilas, certify that all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject security(ies) and subjectcompany(ies). I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is, o