汽车金融现状：负担能力仍是关键挑战，但整体市场健康

Auto Finance Check-In:Affordabilityremains a keychallenge, but overall market ishealthy U.S. Autos & MobilityNEGATIVE Equity Research: U.S. Autos & Mobility Dan Levy+1 212 526 3212dan.levy@barclays.comBCI, US Key takes: 1. Delinquencies elevated, but industry braced andloan portfolio strong, green shoots of improvement; 2.Captive financing maintains dominant share but banksreturning; 3. Lease mix normalizing supported by EVloophole; 4. Monthly payments at record, driven by elevatedpricing and rates Josh Cho+1 212 526 7156joshua.cho@barclays.comBCI, US We appreciate your 5-star vote in the 2025 Extel All-America Research Survey in the Autos &Auto Parts category.View our analysts » 1Q data from Experian’s State of the Automotive Finance Market Report largely continued thetrends we saw in 4Q (see note here), with the auto financing market continuing to show signs ofnormalization. We see several key considerations: •Elevated levels of delinquencies that are above GFC levels remain a focal point, yet we believethe industry has expected a rise in delinquencies given the unprecedented dynamics of thepast few years (highly elevated prices, low rates, debt repayment pauses) and thus should beadequately braced. Furthermore, delinquencies center on subprime-and-below loans towhich the used market is far more exposed, with the new market largely insulated. •With pricing remaining at an elevated level (slow normalization) and sticky interest rates,monthly payments reached a new peak, reflecting challenged industryaffordability;webelieve this may stick, and perhaps increase in the near term ontariff-relatedprice increases.That said,post-tariffuncertainty we'd expect payments to come down as pricing normalizesand additional rate cuts flow through. •Credit quality remains high with new loans heavily skewed to Prime / Super Prime, althoughSubprime lending has recovered shareafterbeing under-served for the past several years. •Lease mix is recovering from Covid lows, supported by elevated EV leasing mix ("LeasingLoophole"), with leasing representing 60% of new EV purchases. •OEM captive finance continues to hold dominant market share in new loans, yet bank share isrecovering from post-SVB lows. More broadly, in the the absence of a recession we believe that the worst of financing tightnessis behind us, with lower pricing, rate cuts, and the return of lenders to the market (i.e. banks)poised to support lending availability andaffordability- albeit these points will need to bebalanced withtariffuncertainty. Delinquencies remain elevated...yet some positive momentum towardsnormalization 1Q25's 30-day delinquency rate of 1.91% was encouraging, as it decreased by ~20bps y/y. Thismarks the first y/y decrease since 2021, as the 30-day rate had steadily increased from 2021 to apeak in 2024 (1Q24 2.09%). 30-day delinquencies are now more in line with levels seen pre-Covid (1Q19 1.84%). 1Q25's 60-day delinquency rate of 0.81% was also encouraging, roughly flattish y/y. The 60-dayrate had risen quite rapidly in the past several years, from a COVID trough of 0.48% in 1Q21 to0.80% in 1Q24, yet the rate now appears to have somewhat plateaued. That said, 60-day ratesremain well above levels seen pre-COVID (1Q19 0.62%). Although headline delinquency rates above GFC levels1are alarming, we believe some context isrequired. Given the unprecedented dynamics of the auto market in the last ~4 years (includingrecord prices, debt repayment pauses, and normalization of interest rates from 2020/21 lows),rising delinquencies were seemingly inevitable. Accordingly, the industry has been expectinghigher delinquencies and is likely braced, unlike the surprise/rapid onset of delinquencies in '09. Furthermore, delinquencies are concentrated in subprime borrowers, with 60-day delinquencyin subprime at 6.56% in January2, well above the industry average of 0.81% in 1Q. Recall,subprime lending is heavily concentrated in used lending, and the new sales market is far lessimpacted. We continue to see the market as healthy, especially with new loans continuing to skew towardbuyers with better credit scores. It's worth monitoring pressures at the low end of the new carmarket and within the used car market where macro conditions have shown weakness, but webelieve that the increase in delinquencies is still a temporary part of the normalization process. Note: Delinquency as a % of loan balances outstandingSource: Experian’s State of the Automotive Finance Market Report: 1Q 2025 Slight credit portfolio normalization as subprime mix increases, yet credit portfolioremains strong Subprime and Deep Subprime loans as a % of the new loan portfolio increased y/y to 6.1% in1Q25 from 5.4% in 1Q24, yet Subprime mix remains muted vs. historical levels with 1Q atjust ~60% of the 2020 mix (9.9%). A return of Subprime lending has been expected as the marketwas under-served during the production-constrained environment of the past severalyears. While currently