墨菲石油（MUR）：基沃斯评论-越南值得关注

USA | Oil & Gas Exploration & ProductionMurphy Oil Kiawah Commentary - Vietnam Worth Watching CEO Eric Hembly & IR Megan Larson attended.Mgmt was confident onprogress in lowering Gulf opex while also extending the economic life of fieldsthanks to the purchase of the Pioneer FPSO. In Vietnam, the market will continueto watch appraisal progress on Golden Sea Lion to inform decisions aboutfurther long-cycle spending on a 2nd FSO. Mgmt tone indicated buybacks areunlikely despite FCF expansion in 2H25 as MUR prioritizes its $1bn total debttarget. What Happened in Kiawah?We met with CEO Eric Hembly and IR Megan Larson in Kiawah tohear about strategic directives following '22-'24 delevering effort. As MUR refreshes the capitaldistribution formula to transition away from MUR2.0 etc to maintain $1bn long-term debt whilereturning a minimum annual 50% of FCF (post dividend), we gather the company remained cautiousin 2Q on shareholder returns. Long-cycle spending peaking in '25 leads us to project $100mn ofpost dividend FCF for 2Q-4Q25 driven by commodity price volatility, leaving little to repay recentRBL activity. With the majority of EF operators present at the conference, onshore cost initiativeswere topical in mature basins. MUR believes their D&C costs are in-line with scaled basin leadersat ~$600/ft with our estimate closer to ~$700/ft. While operating a partial frac crew offers roomfor considerable savings we expect the company will continue operating a single rig until signs ofGulf production declines arrive. Market Watching Offshore Operations.MUR announced a discovery in Vietnam with 1Q resultsat Pink Camel (30–60 mmboe in place) which will tie back to development at Golden Camel (100mmboe recoverable). Mgmt expects further appraisal of Golden Sea Lion will include resource inblock 15-1/05 which should maximize cost recovery / resource life. Based on Hai Su Vang 2X in3Q25 mgmt will determine if a second FSO is warranted when the field is entering development in'29/'30. In the Gulf mgmt expects the purchase of the Pioneer FPSO will extend the economic lifeof the Cascade / Chinook fields to unlock 8mmbo of resource. We expect this purchase will alsofacilitate exploration with 3rd-party WI partners likely to utilize the cost-advantaged asset whichMUR believes will cut opex from $30/boe to $12/boe on the fields it services. Tara Bleustein * | Equity Associate+1 (212) 323-7595 | tbleustein@jefferies.com Company Description Murphy Oil Murphy Oil is an oil and gas exploration and production company with offshore operations in the Gulf of Mexico and the East Coast of Canada andonshore operations in the Eagle Ford, Montney, and Duvernay basins. The company has exploration acreage in the Gulf of Mexico, Brazil, and Vietnam. Company Valuation/Risks Murphy Oil Our price target applies a EV / 2Y Forward EBITDA multiple to Murphy's 2026E EBITDA, and then we discount this back to 2024, using the cost ofequity less dividend yield. We identify five key valuation risks. Murphy's operations in the Gulf of Mexico expose the company to federal regulatory risk, as evidenced by the legalchallenges to lease sales in recent years. While there is currently federal support for more lease sales, we see the risk that once the present tightnessin the market is elevated, political winds might change. Murphy's onshore operations have experienced the most inflation out of the company's assetportfolio, and we see the risk that this could dent EBITDA and FCF generation. Like all E&Ps, Murphy is exposed to broader oil & gas market forcesthat can have a significant impact on the company's financial position. Murphy is located in the Gulf of Mexico, and thus, it is significantly exposed tohurricanes, which can cause production to go offline, lowering EBITDA and earnings potential. We see minimal risks around the company's asset base,as Murphy's operations in the Gulf are still ramping and its onshore production shows high productivity and low declines. However, by the middle ofthe decade, Murphy's position in the Gulf will begin to decline, and if the company wants to keep production stable, it will have to expand drilling in theEagle Ford and Onshore Canada. Successfully executing this asset rotation brings risks. Analyst Certification: I, Lloyd Byrne, certify that all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject security(ies) and subjectcompany(ies). I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressedin this research report. I, John Edelman, certify that all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject security(ies) and subjectcompany(ies). I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressedin this research report. I, Emm