进步的未来：关于全球超越GDP转型的前瞻性报告

Data, signals, trends, benefits and risks mentioned in this report are non-exhaustive andwere based on information available at hand at the time of publication.Ideas and content within this report are by DFF. GenAI was used to aid in grammar,copyediting and translation with human editorial oversight.Recommended CitationDubai Future Foundation (2024) ‘The Future of Progress: A foresight report on the globaltransition beyond GDP’.www.dubaifuture.ae/the-future-of-progress TABLE OF CONTENTSINTRODUCTION12345THE CASE FOR ‘BEYOND GDP’A Brief Summary of GDPThe Challenge with GDP‘BEYOND GDP’ TODAYGlobal IndicesCity-Level IndicesRecent and Upcoming DevelopmentsBARRIERS TO MOVING BEYOND GDPBarrier 1:The ‘Ontology’ of Economic GrowthBarrier 2:The Role of GDP in the Future Beyond GDPBarrier 3:Conceptually Varied Stances on Well-BeingBarrier 4:Holding on to GDPTHE GLOBAL TRANSITION BEYOND GDPApproach to ForesightPreferable FutureA Roadmap for the Global Transition Beyond GDPScenarios for the Global Transition Beyond GDPGLOBAL RECOMMENDATIONSRecommendation 1:A Global Definition for ProgressRecommendation 2:Common Principles for Global ProgressRecommendation 3:A Global Working Group for ProgressRecommendation 4:Global Pilot Locations 320313861 ACRONYMSACKNOWLEDGEMENTSABOUT THE DUBAI FUTURE FOUNDATIONREFERENCESBACKGROUND READINGOUR APPROACH TO RESEARCH1.Understanding the Problem and the Preferable Future2.Expert Engagement and Analysis3.Research Triangulation, and Roadmap and Scenario DevelopmentCONCLUDING REMARKS 444686982707765 →The history and the evolvingdiscussions around GDP andthe future of GDPINTRODUCTION 6Gross domestic product (GDP) – based on the value of goods and services producedand consumed within national boundaries, savings and investments made withinthose same boundaries, government expenditure, tax revenues and net exportsmade over a period of time – has long been accepted as the global gauge for theeconomic and, increasingly, the social progress of a nation. While the word ‘progress’is laden with meaning and has philosophically challenging connotations (Lange,2011), by‘progress’, we refer to the pursuit of integrated economic, social andenvironmental betterment for people and the planet today and in the future.However, GDP has played a limited role in accounting for developments that havegenerated new economies and – as a gauge for progress – has not evolved in line withenvironmental imperatives, technological advances, or socially redefined forms of valuesuch as well-being and inclusion. The world has evolved, and even if GDP is positivelycorrelated with many aspects of societal progress and development, the way wemeasure progress will need to evolve.In 2008, then French president Nicolas Sarkozy called leading economists to createa commission, later named the Commission on the Measurement of EconomicPerformance and Social Progress (CMEPSP), to study whether GDP was a reliableindicator of socio-economic progress (Stiglitzet al., 2009). The seminal Stiglitz–Sen–Fitoussi report was published in 2009 as a result. This report was pivotal because itconcluded that while ‘statistical indicators are important for designing and assessingpolicies aiming at advancing the progress of society…what we measure affects whatwe do; and if our measurements are flawed, decisions may be distorted.… It has longbeen clear that GDP is an inadequate metric to gauge well-being over time particularlyin its economic, environmental, and social dimensions, some aspects of which are oftenreferred to assustainability’ (Stiglitzet al., 2009: 7–8).Following the Stiglitz–Sen–Fitoussi report, in 2013 the Organisation for EconomicCo-operation and Development (OECD) set up the High-Level Expert Group (HLEG)on the Measurement of Economic Performance and Social Progress, co-chaired byJoseph E. Stiglitz, Jean-Paul Fitoussi and Martine Durand (Nobel laureates and leadingeconomists on the topic of going beyond GDP). Then, in 2018, the HLEG publishedBeyond GDP: Measuring What Counts for Economic and Social Performance(OECD,2018a) andFor Good Measure: Advancing Research on Well-Being Metrics BeyondGDP(OECD, 2018b), which stated that the 169 targets established and agreed as partof the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) were too many and recommended thatcountries should choose a set that aligned with their priorities (OECD, 2018b).6 In 2021, the UN Secretary-General’s reportOur Common Agendamade a call toreimagine measurements of progress and socio-economic performance, as GDPdoes not fully account for the human and environmental harm of some businessactivities. The report also argued that we should seek measures that matter topeople and the planet and that complement GDP as part of a reimagined socialcontract (United Nations, 2021).These efforts simultaneously continue to pave the way for and shape an ongoingintellectual debate and conversation calling for a collective effort to develop ideasaround a new metric of national progress that w