多米尼克：2025年第四条磋商新闻稿；员工报告

©2025International Monetary FundDOMINICAANDSTAFF REPORT•APress Release.completed onMay 22,2025.other documents. IMF Executive Board Concludes 2025 Article IV Consultationwith DominicaFOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE•Dominica’s economic outlook is positive, predicated on the implementation of thecountry’s economic modernization and development agenda, butrisks weigh on thedownside.•Fiscal and external imbalances are expected to narrow gradually, but more ambitiousconsolidation isneeded to bring debt below the prudential currency union benchmark,mitigate disaster risks, and support resilient growth.•Structural reforms are critical to fostering resilient and sustainable growth. Prioritiesinclude policies to alleviate impediments to financial intermediation, labor marketperformance, and innovation and allocative efficiency.Washington, DC–June10,2025:OnJune 10, 2025, the Executive Board of theInternational Monetary Fund (IMF) concluded the Article IV consultation1with Dominicaandendorsed the staff appraisal without a meeting on a lapse-of-time basis.The authorities haveconsented to the publication of the Staff Report prepared for this consultation.2Dominica’s economy has continued its expansion.Real GDP grew by 3.5 percent in 2024,supported by a recovery in tourism and targeted development investment to boost economiccapacity and competitiveness. Inflation has eased from its 2023 peak of 7percent, averaging3.1 percent in 2024. Tourism arrivals have surpassed pre-pandemic levels by roughly32percent, but the composition has shifted towards cruise visitors over stayovers. The labormarket recovery remains uneven, with formal employment lagging behind overall growth.Fiscal and external imbalances have narrowed but remain large. The primary balanceimproved by 2¼percentage points(ppts)to a deficit of 2 percent of GDP in FY2023/24,reflectingdeclinesin primary current spending that more than offset moderately lowerrevenues. Public debt has steadily declined from its pandemic peak but remains elevated at1Under Article IV of the IMF's Articles of Agreement, the IMF holds bilateral discussions with members, usually everyyear. A staff team visits the country, collects economic and financial information, and discusses with officials thecountry's economic developments and policies. On return to headquarters, the staff prepares a report, which formsthe basis for discussion by the Executive Board.2Under the IMF's Articles of Agreement, publication of documents that pertain to member countries is voluntary andrequires the member consent. The staff report will be shortly published on thewww.imf.org/en/Countries/DMApage. 100 percent of GDP.The current account deficit narrowed by 2pptsto 32¼percent of GDP in2024, reflecting higher tourism receipts.The financial system is liquid with a mixed credit picture andbalance sheet fragilitiesthatrequire monitoring.Bank credit has declined furthersince 2023reflecting ongoing de-riskingamid persistent balance sheet challenges, notably elevated non-performing loans (NPLs) andstill fragile provisioning.Meanwhile, the credit union (CU) sector is expanding its lendingportfolio rapidly, despite weak capitalization, high NPLs, and limited provisioning. Modernizingthe supervisory framework governing these institutions is a priority to safeguardfinancialsector stabilitygiven their growing systemic importance.Dominica’s economic outlook is positive, predicated on the implementation of the country’seconomic modernization anddevelopmentagenda. Externalimbalances are projected tonarrowon the back of increased tourism, a normalization ofinvestment-related imports, andreducedfuel importswith the rollout ofgeothermal energy.Meanwhile, public debt is set todecline gradually in coming years,supported bysustainedprudent fiscal management, butremainsabove the prudential currency union debt benchmarkandis susceptibleto shocks.Executive BoardAssessment3Dominica’s economic expansion is poised to continue, but risks to the outlook are elevatedand tilted to the downside. Real GDP growth is projected to average 3½ percent over the nextthree years, underpinned by ongoing investment in flagship infrastructure projects to boosttourism capacity and transition to lower-cost geothermal energy. The heavy import-relatedcontent of these projects has eroded the external position—which is assessed to besubstantially weaker than implied by medium-term fundamentals and desirable policysettings—but gradual improvements are expected as major capital outlays wind down andfiscal consolidation intensifies. Risks are elevated reflecting Dominica’s vulnerability to naturaldisaster shocks and amid the evolving trade policyand geopolitical environment.More ambitious fiscal consolidation than what is envisaged under the authorities’ currentpolicies is needed to reduce economic imbalances and mitigate disaster risks while helping toreinforce prospects for resilient growth. The overall risk of debt distress is high and as such, itis critical to rebuil