中国必选消费品: 5月份调研及消费企业日综述：通缩之际在政策转向和渠道转型下复苏之路仍然曲折

本效益，主要得益于PET、糖、大豆的价格利好（参见我们的5月份成本追踪报告）。除此之外，许多公司（如啤酒/食品饮料/白酒/乳制品公司）仍专注于利润率/利润目标，借助成本利好及运营费用控制在趋势低迷之际缓冲增加投资以促进收入增长的影响（康师傅/统一/伊利均维持利润/利润率指引）。主要新趋势：整个食品饮料行业的新兴/新渠道转型潜在加速：1）折扣店渠道：必选消费品公司正在积极加强与零食折扣店的合作，康师傅表示，由于需求上升，公司专门为零食折扣店定制食品饮料SKU，尽管目前该渠道在其方便面/饮品业务销售额中的占比仅为2-3%/不足1%。伊利/蒙牛也在折扣店渠道扩大合作/探索定制产品；与更多头部折扣店（如万辰）的合作也应会助力盐津铺子等零食企业的销售增长。2）闪购渠道：白酒和啤酒在O2O闪送平台实现快速增长，例如，美团指出白酒销售在6.18购物节初期强劲增长。大多数啤酒企业来自闪购渠道的需求上升，业内企业寻求从这些闪购平台获得更多销量以拓展市场份额，尽管其盈利能力普遍低于传统的非即饮批发渠道；3）山姆会员店：伊利指出，其山姆会员店商品（主要是低温乳制品）实现盈利，而伊利低温乳制品业务整体仍处亏损状态；4）海外市场：伊利指出，其东南亚低温乳制品业务保持强劲势头，预计2025年将实现同比双位数增长；盐津铺子二季度海外业绩较一季度环比改善。宠物食品海外业务在定价方面保持韧性，中国对美出口的直接影响有限，中宠股份也在寻求扩大自有品牌海外销售——主要是Wanpy顽皮、Zeal真致和Jerky Time，2025年目标销售额人民币4亿元；海外市场的利润率高于国内市场。我们覆盖的中国必选消费品公司2025/26年预期市盈率的加权平均值为20倍/18倍，净利润年均复合增速平均为13%，2025年预期股息收益率为3.4%。我们认为行业正在等待进一步的政策支持以提振消费者信心，并认为近期对利润率能见度的关注度上升。我们仍看好饮料（长期增长，对应26倍的市盈率及21%的净利润年均复合增速），其次是宠物食品（渗透率提升）、啤酒（增长环比回升）和乳制品（供需再平衡节点可能推迟，但仍是趋势所在）。选股：东鹏饮料，因持续强劲的产品周期推动营收增长；康师傅/华润饮料，利润率扩张路径清晰；青岛啤酒H股，可比基数较低及成本效益。April/May Check In - Still lackluster recovery trend in volumedespite easier comp base; ASP-More value offering inDairy/BeverageFor volume -Weaker in 2Y stack in April-May: We actually think the shipment run-ratefor April/May was relatively weaker than 1Q25 (stabilized in LNY) in a two-year stackon traditional categories such as dairy/beer/snacks as 2Q25 base comp is mucheasier than 1Q. We also continue to note adverse impact on on-trade relatedcategories i.e. beer/spirits/condiments from weak catering/night clubs consumptionespecially withthe recent policy tighteningon anti-extravagance for party andgov’t agencies dated on 18May amid peak season (Dragon Boat Festival).For Pricing- Deflation headwinds still lingering with more value offerings: We notethat pricing/deflation pressure still persists (-0.1% CPI in May/April/March), and wenote more value offerings in Dairy and Beverages with cost buffer, amid stillintensive competition. We also note continued cost tail winds (Headline PPI inflationdeclined to -3.3% yoy in May vs. -2.7% yoy in April primarily on falling commodityprices).2 2025年6月11日 Key monthly run-rate by subsector:(-) Spirits: Spirits wholesale price are trending lower YTD on still mutedncommercial demand and recent policy release on anti-extravagance for civilservants in mid May. In recent weeks, wholesale prices trend remains weak ledby sequentially declining prices of Feitian Moutai likely due to a weak retailsell-through in Dragon Boat Festival, and we noted the prepayment pace ofmajority of spirits players are slower yoy. Laojiao who suspended full-rangeshipment in early April hasn’t resumed shipment (original plan is to resumeahead of Dragon Boat Festival on 31 May).(=) Beer: Into 2Q25, beer consumption volume is still unexciting due to continuednweakness in on-trade channels, while competition remains largely stable.Divergence is seen across beer brands, where Bud APAC still lagged at c.HSD%declines in May lapping a low base on a two-year stack. Zhujiang/Tsingtao/CRBwere up 10%+/MSD%/LSD% yoy. Heineken maintained +20% yoy momentum.(-) Dairy: Retail demand sequentially weakened vs. LNY seasons (third party datansuggests c.MSD% yoy retail decline in March-April). The dairy industry continuedto see upstream supply reduction with herd size shrinking sequentially for overtwo years. Raw milk price decline trends are more stabilized YTD.(-) Condiments: For Jonjee, channels have been digesting inventory from 1Q innApr (down c.10%) and more shipments were made in May but stillflattish yoy.For Yihai, B2B development has helped 3rd party growth back to DD% inApril-May.(+) Beverage: Overall secular growth momentum continues into 2Q, led by strongnperformance of Eastroc’s energy drinks and rising product cycles, while Nongfuwater is seeing a strong run-rate lapping a low base. UPC is seeing beveragegrowth slowing to MSD% in May vs. 10%+ in 1Q to April. Tingyi is keeping itspricing hike for both 1L beverage (c.80%+ POS still with RSP of Rmb4.5) andnoodles so far but added promotion for SKUs. Cost benefits esp. from PET/sugarsupport reinvestments and competition remains intense YTD.(=) Snack foods: In terms of the large SKU strategies that companies have beennimplementing, SKUs emerging categories like Konjac are still seeing strongmomentum. Traditional categories are seeing more pressure from both pricingand volume. 2Q25 is lapping a low base but the support from base effect mightbe limited due to soft retail demand.(+) Pork: WH group has seen a packaged meats volume recovery in 2Q25 withnin-line sell-through, partially attributable to channel expansion. QTD volumetrend has been largely on track for cyclical improvement.(+) Pet foods: Demand remains strong and ASP has been on the rise driven bynnew product launches; per mgmt. promotion levels have eased in the earlyperiod of the618Shopping Festival. Overseas business has remained resilient onpricing and direct impact on China export to the US has been on a relativelylimited scale. Per ouronline tracker,GMV wis