剑桥数字矿业行业报告：全球运营、行业态势与能源使用

ContentsForewordResearchTeamAcknowledgementsExecutiveSummaryPartI:WhatisBitcoin?BitcoinFundamentalsBitcoin'sRoadtoInstitutionalAcceptanceBitcoinasanAssetClass,MarketValueandAssetCorrelationsPartII:DigitalMiningPrimerASummaryTheProcessofBlockAssemblyProof-of-Work,AKeyMechanismBehindBitcoin’sSecurityTheEvolutionofNetworkHashrateMiningPoolsPartIII:SurveyMethodologySurveyOverviewRespondentProfilesGeographicalDistributionofMiningActivityGoalsandLimitationsPartIV:HardwareandE-WasteTheEvolutionofMiningHardwareASICMarketStructureandFirmwareUsageRetirementofMiningEquipmentandE-WastePartV:ElectricityConsumptionDigitalMiningandItsEnergyNeeds,AnOngoingControversyEfficiencyofMiningHardwareElectricityConsumption 45681213182431323335384043444546484950535557585963 8186889192MinerRevenue:BlockRewardandTransactionFeesTheCostStructureofDigitalMiningFirmsKeyRevenueMetricsKeyCostMetricsHashMargin,AMeasureofProfitabilityPartVIII:MinerSentiment9495WhatKeepsMinersAwakeatNight?NavigatingUncertainty,HowdoMinersManageTheirRisk?ScalingHurdles,WhataretheKeyExpansionBarriers?ForecastingtheFuture,HowWelldidMinersPredicttheMarkets?9798100PartIX:Trends102103110TheFutureofMining,QuoVadis?TheConvergenceofDigitalMiningandAIPartX:FinalThoughtsGlossary115117Appendix125126133136137A:BitcoinandtheWiderCryptoassetMarketfromaFinancialPerspectiveB:TheEvolutionofBitcoinC:TheImprobabilityofaSupercomputer51%AttackonBitcoinD:SurveyQuestionnaireBibliography140 ForewordTraditionalfinanceandthedigitalassetecosystemareincreasinglyconverging.Thisismostclearlydemonstratedbythegrowinginvolvementofestablishedinvestmentfirms,butalsobylandmarkeventssuchastheU.S.SecuritiesandExchangeCommission’sapprovalofspotBitcoinETFslastyearthatsignificantlybroadenedmainstreamaccesstobitcoinand,subsequently,othercryptoassets.LookingatBitcoininparticular,manylargeinstitutionalinvestors,initiallyhesitantduetoconcernsaboutillicitactivityandtheenvironmentalimpact,nowactivelyofferclientsexposuretothisstill-nascent,yetincreasinglyprominent,assetclass.TheCambridgeCentreforAlternativeFinance(CCAF)haslongrecognisedthedisruptivepotentialinherentindigitalassets.Sinceourinaugural“GlobalCryptocurrencyBenchmarkingStudy”in2017,wehaveconsistentlydedicatedresourcestoexploringthisevolvinglandscape.Thispublicationmarksourthirteenthreportfocusedonthedigitalassetsecosystemandblockchaintechnology.Onetopicinrelationtothisnoveltechnologythatquicklydrewsignificantpublicandacademicattentionwasitsenvironmentalimpact.Specifically,theenergy-intensivenatureoftheProof-of-Workconsensusmechanism,mostnotablyusedbyBitcoin,hasraisedconcernsaboutlong-termsustainability.Theseconcernsarenotnew.Alreadyoveradecadeago,earlyresearchbeganexaminingthisissue.Despitegrowingawareness,apersistentchallengehashinderedafullunderstandingoftheissue:thedecentralisednatureofnetworkslikeBitcoinmakesitexceptionallydifficulttoobtainreliable,granulardataonenergyconsumptionandtheenergysourcesusedbyminingoperators–bothofwhicharecentralvariablesforarobustenvironmentalimpactassessment.Thislackofprimarydatahasledtowidelyvaryingestimatesandongoingdebatebetweenindustryandacademicsources.TheCCAFrespondedtotheneedforgreatertransparencywiththelaunchoftheCambridgeBitcoinElectricityConsumptionIndex(CBECI)in2019,providingahybridtop-downestimateofBitcoin'selectricityconsumption,aninitiativewehavesignificantlyexpandedinscopesinceitsinception.However,CBECIstillreliesonmodellingandaccesstocontemporarydata;itdoesnotcapturethedetailed,firm-levelinformationnecessaryforatrulygranularassessment.Thisreportdirectlyaddressesthatremainingdatagap.Inanefforttoreduceabstractionsandrelymoreheavilyondirectpractitionerinsights,theCCAFhasundertakenacomprehensivestudy,surveying49digitalminingfirmswhocollectivelyrepresentnearly48%oftheimpliedBitcoinnetworkhashrate.Thefindingsofthisstudyofferunparalleledinsightsintooperationalstructures,theASICmarket,industrysentiment,and,mostnotably,theenvironmentalimpactofdigitalminingoperations.Keyquestionsaddressedincludethegeographicaldistributionofminingactivity,theefficiencyofdeployedhardware,electricityconsumption,greenhousegasemissions,andmore.Forreaderslessfamiliarwiththesubject,anintroductiontoBitcoinanddigitalminingisincludedtoensurethesubsequentcontentcanbefullyappreciated.Weextendoursinceregratitudetoallstakeholderswhocontributedtothisreport,whetherbyfacilitatingconnectionswithintheindustryorbyprovidinginvaluablefeedback.Itisourhopethatthisin-depthexaminationofthedigitalmininglandscapewillserveasausefulreferenceonavarietyoftopicsandhelpfacilitateanevidence-baseddialogue.BryanZhangCo-FounderandExecutiveDirectorCambridgeCentreforAlternativeFinanceAlexanderNeumuellerResearchLead,DigitalAssetsEnergyandClimateImpactCambridgeDigitalAssetsProgramme(CDAP),CambridgeCentreforAlternativeFinance PrincipalResearcherAlexanderNeumuellerResearchLead,DigitalAssetsEnergyandClimateImpactCambridgeCentreforAlternativeFinance,CambridgeJudgeBusinessSchool,UniversityofCambridgeResearchTeamGinaPietersResearchFellow–CambridgeCentreforAlternativeF