数据与叙事：强劲的美国数据与看跌美元的叙事之间的拉锯战仍在继续。在7月9日的最后期限之前，关税噪音可能会持续存在，但债券市场稳定措施可以带来额外的美元缓解。

FICCResearch FXStrategy8June2025 FX&EMWeeklyThoughts Dataversusnarrative ThetugofwarbetweenresilientUSdataandthebearishdollarnarrativecontinues.Tariffnoiseislikelytopersistaheadofthe9Julydeadlinebutbondmarketstabilitymeasurescangenerateadditionaldollarrelief. USD|EUR|JPY|GBP|Commodity|Scandies&CHF|NJA|LatAm|EEMEA Abearishmarketfacingresilientdata ThetusslebetweenUSdataandthemarketnarrativecontinuedlastweek.Earlyon,themarketignoredstrengthinpersonalspendingdataandJOLTSandlatchedontotheweakservicesISMandADPemployment.AhawkishECBalsoaffordedreasonstodrivetheEURhigher.Still,theUSDmovewasmodestoverall,anattestationofstill-stretchednegativeUSDsentimentperourindicator(Figure1). Atthesametime,themore-reliablesoftandhardUSdata,suchaspersonalincomegrowthandthePMIs,remainrobust(withthelattertrackingunderlyingactivitymuchbetterthanISMsinceCOVID-Figure2).Mayemploymentalsocameinbetterthanmarketsfeared–withchunkynegativepayrollsrevisionsinthepriortwomonthsaccompaniedbyarespectable139kNFPprintforMayandstrongearningsgrowth,thelatterareliablereal-timecross-checkforlabourmarketstrength.Inall,andaccountingforallthedistortionsthatlikelyinflatethelatestAtlantaFed'scurrentc.4%GDPNowcast,theUSappearslargelyonthesametrajectoryasbefore"liberationday." Accordingly,theongoingde-dollarisationnarrativehasyettobecorroboratedbyshiftsinfundamentals.Moreover,fornow,investorshavelikelyincreasedFXhedgingontheirexistingUSDassetsinsteadofactivelydivesting.WehavealreadyarguedthatanycapitulationinAsia'slongUSDposition–aregionwherecurrentaccountsurpluscountriesholdexcessdollars–islikelytobegradual,withanyreviewbyEMAsiancentralbanksoftheirreservesallocationstrategylikelytoplayoutonlyoveramedium-termhorizon.Havingsaidthat,evidencefromEuropeanpensionfundspointstoalevelofnormalizationofhedgeratiosfromunderhedgedlevelstomedium-termaverages. Lookingahead,tariffandfiscaluncertaintieswilllikelykeepnoiselevelselevated.PresidentsTrumpandXispokelastThursdaybuttherewas,yetagain,alackofconcretedetailsintermsofprogressasaresultofthediscussions.Aheadofthe9Julyreciprocaltariffsdeadline,theUSadministrationrhetorichasalreadyhardenedagainstselectAsiantradingpartners,includingVietnamoverChineseimports,whileIndiahasrespondedwithatougheningtradestancebyformallychallengingtheUSonautotariffs. SIGNATURE ThemistoklisFiotakis +44(0)2077732002 themos.fiotakis@barclays.comBarclays,UK LefterisFarmakis +44(0)2035556549 lefteris.farmakis@barclays.comBarclays,UK AndreaKiguel +12125268954 andrea.kiguel@barclays.comBCI,US MitulKotecha +6563085439 mitul.kotecha@barclays.comBarclaysBank,Singapore ShinichiroKadota +81345301374 shinichiro.kadota2@barclays.comBSJL,Japan MarekRaczko +44(0)2031340089 marek.raczko@barclays.comBarclays,UK ThisdocumentisintendedforinstitutionalinvestorsandisnotsubjecttoalloftheindependenceanddisclosurestandardsapplicabletodebtresearchreportspreparedforretailinvestorsunderU.S.FINRARule2242.Barclaystradesthesecuritiescoveredinthisreportforitsownaccountandonadiscretionarybasisonbehalfofcertainclients.Suchtradinginterestsmaybecontrarytotherecommendationsofferedinthisreport. Pleaseseeanalystcertificationsandimportantdisclosuresbeginningonpage10. Completed:06-Jun-25,21:00GMTReleased:08-Jun-25,09:00GMTRestricted-External Barclays|FX&EMWeeklyThoughts Atthesametime,governmentsalreadyareworkingtowardsmitigatingbondmarketvolatility,whichonthemarginshouldbenefitthedollarinthecurrentcontext.TheCBO'sestimateofTrump'stariffrevenueimpliesasmallerfiscaldeficitthanascenarioofsimplyextendingTCJAcuts.Accordingly,ourUSratesstrategycolleaguesexpectthemarketeffectofanysurprisesfromtheSenateversionoftheBBBtobemarginal.InJapan,BoJQTtaperingheadlinesanddiscussionsaroundapotentialMoFreductioninlong-endissuanceindicatethatgovernmentauthoritiesarerespondingtobondmarketjitterstheretoo. FIGURE1.USDsentimentstillnegativedespitereboundFIGURE2.USincomeandtransfershaveaccelerated Personalincome(y/y,%)Personalcurrenttransfers 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% Jan-23Jul-23Jan-24Jul-24Jan-25 Note:FordetailsofourUSDsentimentindicator,pleaseseeFXViews:Dollarsentiment:weakerthanmeetstheeye. Source:Bloomberg,BarclaysResearch,BarclaysResearchInvestmentScienceTeamSource:HaverAnalytics,BarclaysResearch 8June20252 Barclays|FX&EMWeeklyThoughts Majordata/events/speakers FIGURE3.Majordata/events/speakersthisweek Date Data/Speaker/Event Barclays Consensus Comments Data 9-15Jun China:Maycreditdata TSF:8.7%y/y;M2:8.0%y/y;Newloans:CNY850bn M2:8.1%y/y Governmentbondissuanceakeysupport Taiwan:Maytrade X:23%y/y X:15.5%y/y;M:26%y/y Exportslikelyremainedstrongduetosemiconductordemand 9-Jun China:MayCPI H:-0.2%y/y H:-0.2%y/y China:Maytrade X:6.5%y/y X:6.0y/y;M:-0.9%y/y Mexico:MayCPI H:0.26%m/m,4.40%y/y;C:0.27%m/m,4.03%y/y H:0.24%m/m,4.38%y/y;C:0.27%m/m,4.03%y/y 10-Jun Norway:MayCPI ATE:0.3%m/m,2.9%y/y CPI:2.7%y/y;ATE:2.9%y/y Norgesfcst:CPI:2.7%y/y,CPI-ATE:3.1%y/y UK:Apr-Maylabourmarket UE:4.6%;AWE:5.6%3m/y UE:4.6%;AWE:5.5%3m/y Privatesectorwages:Barc:5.4% Coumbia:MayCPI H:0.38%m/m H:0.40%m/m Brazil:MayIPCA H:0.30%m/m H: