comscore，inc (scor) 模型更新 - 等待增长可持续地突破低个位数

2025E2026E361.0372.849.156.34.025.124.005.23 2027E386.765.7-6.64 Surinder Thind, CFA * | Equity Analyst(415) 229-1515 | sthind@jefferies.comLogan Schuh * | Equity Associate+1 (201) 685-6981 | lschuh@jefferies.com The Long View: ComscoreInvestment Thesis / Where We Differ•Industry disruption accelerates•Continued market share gains in local TV measurement•Market share gains outside of local TV will be more difficult to achieve butare possibleBase Case,$5, +3%2025 organic revenue grows 2-4% y/y•Revenue grows low single digits with growthof low to mid single digits in Content & AdMeasurement and low single digits in Research& Insights•Cost efficiency initiatives are implemented•Price Target of $5.00 (= 1.25x 2025E adj EPS of$4.00)Sustainability MattersTop material issues: 1) Employee Engagement, Diversity, and Inclusion:Software development anddata/analytics is a human-capital-driven business. With over 1700 employees globally, the challenge ofpromoting and maintaining equality, opportunity, and respect for everyone is significant.Company targets:1) Not applicable.The company has not published any quantitative ESG targets.Questions for management: 1)Please explain the company’s current lack of quantitative targets for itsESG strategy?Published Research:US Software, IT Services & Payments ESG Integration RefreshPlease see important disclosure information on pages 5 - 10 of this report.This report is intended for Jefferies clients only. Unauthorized distribution is prohibited. Upside Scenario,$6.75, +39%2025 organic revenue grows at/above 5% y/y•Revenue grows mid single digits with growth of•Aggressive cost efficiency initiatives are•Price Target of $6.75 (= 1.5x 2025E adj EPS of mid single digits in Content & Ad Measurementand low single digits in Research & Insightsimplemented$4.50) Downside Scenario,$0, -100%2025 organic revenue growth is negative y/y•Revenue declines continue. Mgmt unable tocut expenses fast enough to offset earningsdecline.•Price Target of $0 (= bankruptcy)Catalysts[+/-] Meaningful change in US industry ad spendfrom current levels[+/-] Large contract wins or clients defect from/toa competitor[+/-] Product delivery ahead/behind schedule[+/-]Material change in revenue target ofbreakeven cashflow from operations 2 Exhibit 2 - GAAP to Non-GAAP Reconciliation.Comscore(Ticker: SCOR)Surinder Thind, Jefferies, 415.229.1515FYE Dec 31$ in Millions except per share dataINCOME STATEMENT (GAAP)GAAP to Non-GAAP ReconciliationFYE Dec 31$ in Millions except per share dataRevenues (GAAP)Discontinued OpsRevenues (Adjusted)Net Income (GAAP)Income tax provision (benefit)Interest expense, netDepreciationAmortization of intangiblesOther, netEBITDAStock-based compensationOther income, netAdjusted EBITDAAdjusted EBITDA marginNet Income (GAAP)Stock-based compensationInvestigation and audit relatedAmortization of intangiblesSettlement of litigation, netRestructuringOther, netNet Income (Non-GAAP)Source: Company Data, Jefferies EstimatesPlease see important disclosure information on pages 5 - 10 of this report.This report is intended for Jefferies clients only. Unauthorized distribution is prohibited. Company DescriptionComscoreComscore, Inc. is a cross-platform media measurement company. Its products and solutions offer clients insights into consumer behavior, includingdetailed information regarding usage and viewership statistics, including those of their competitors, along with advanced data and analytics. Thecompany was founded in 1999 and is headquartered in Reston, VA.Company Valuation/RisksComscoreOur $5.00 price target is established by applying a below peer group multiple of approximately 1.25x to our 2025 adj EPS estimate of $4.00. Positiverisks to our estimates and/or price target include acceleration in new product adoption and/or faster realization of cost efficiencies. Negative risksinclude reduced industry ad spend, increased competition, and/or an inability to maintain positive free cash flow.Analyst Certification:I, Surinder Thind, CFA, certify that all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject security(ies) andsubject company(ies). I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or viewsexpressed in this research report.I, Logan Schuh, certify that all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject security(ies) and subjectcompany(ies). I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressedin this research report.As is the case with all Jefferies employees, the analyst(s) responsible for the coverage of the financial instruments discussed in this report receives compensationbased in part on the overall performance of the firm, including investment banking income. We seek to update our research as appr