您的浏览器禁用了JavaScript(一种计算机语言,用以实现您与网页的交互),请解除该禁用,或者联系我们。[Jefferies]:原油库存降幅大于预期;汽油和柴油库存增加 - 发现报告

原油库存降幅大于预期;汽油和柴油库存增加

化石能源2025-06-04Jefferies章***
原油库存降幅大于预期;汽油和柴油库存增加

USA|Energy LargerThanExpectedCrudeInventoryDraw;HigherGasolineandDieselBuild Inventoriesbuiltoverallthisweek,withcombinedcrudeoil,gasoline,anddistillatestocksincreasing~5.14mnbblsvs.theBBGmedianestimateofa ~3.46mnbblsoveralldraw. •Crudeoilinventoriesdrew~4.3mnbblsvstheBBGmedianestimateofa~3.13mnbblsdraw. •Gasolineinventoriesbuilt~5.22mnbblsvstheBBGmedianestimateofa~0.5mnbblsdraw. •Distillateinventoriesbuilt~4.23mnbblsvstheBBGmedianestimateofa~0.17mnbblsbuild. •Cushingcrudestocksbuilt~0.58mnbblsto~24.1mnbbls,down~32%y/y. •Refineryrunsincreased~668kpbdWoWto~17.0mmpd,down~1%y/y. •Impliedcrudeoildemandincreased~0.22mmbpdWoWto~20.37mmbpd,~2%aboveyear- ago3-wkmovingavg. •Impliedgasolinedemanddecreased~878kbpdWoWto~9.20mmbpd,~8%belowyear-ago3-wkmovingavg. •Implieddistillatedemanddecreased~473kbpdWoWto~4.56mmbpd,~7%belowyear-ago 3-wkmovingavg. •Crudeadjustmentfactorwas31kbpd,anincreaseof16kbpdWoWvsweek-agolevelof 15kbpd. Exhibit1-WeeklyChangeinOilandProductsInventory EquityResearch Within,wegraphicallybreakdowninventories(includingandexcludingSPR)anddemandbybothproductandPADD,whilecomparingresultstoweekly,quarterly,andyear-ago levels. June4,2025 6,000 (Kbbl) 1,000 (4,000) (9,000) (4,304) (3,128) 5,2194,230 (500) 171 CrudeOilStocksChange GasolineStocksChange DistillateStockChange Source:Bloomberg,EIA,Jefferies Actual(EIA)BloombergSurveyEstimate Exhibit2-TotalOilandProductsInventory(Excl.SPR)-AbsoluteLevelRelativeto1YearvsWTI 15% -5% -25% $150 LloydByrne*|EquityAnalyst (212)323-7528|lloyd.byrne@jefferies.com SamBurwell,CFA*|EquityAnalyst +1(212)284-2114|sburwell@jefferies.com JohnEdelman*|EquityAnalyst (212)336-7412|jedelman@jefferies.com EmmaSchwartz*|EquityAnalyst 1(212)336-7254|emma.schwartz@jefferies.com TaraBleustein*|EquityAssociate +1(212)323-7595|tbleustein@jefferies.com GiacomoRomeo^|EquityAnalyst 44(0)2075484727|giacomo.romeo@jefferies.com $100 $50 $0 May-20May-21May-22May-23May-24May-25 Weeks YoY%ChangeWTI($/bbl) Source:Bloomberg,EIA Pleaseseeanalystcertifications,importantdisclosureinformation,andinformationregardingthestatusofnon-USanalystsonpages92-96ofthisreport. *JefferiesLLC/JefferiesResearchServices,LLC^JefferiesInternationalLimited EnergyEquityResearchJune4,2025 Exhibit3-WeeklyDemandSummary WeeklyDemandSummary (inmbpd) 5/30/2025 5/23/2025 Change 5/31/2024 WoW%∆ YoY%∆ FinishedMotorGasoline 9,200 10,078 -878 9,837 -8.7% -6.5% ReformulatedGasoline 3,055 3,215 -160 3,048 -5.0% 0.2% OtherFinishedMotorGas 6,434 6,996 -562 6,992 -8.0% -8.0% Kerosene-TypeJetfuel 1,951 1,953 -2 1,898 -0.1% 2.8% DistillateFuelOil 4,556 5,029 -473 4,746 -9.4% -4.0% ResidualFuelOil 480 207 273 425 131.9% 12.9% Propane/Propylene 2,018 2,634 -616 2,486 -23.4% -18.8% Demand-Products 18,205 19,901 -1,696 19,392 -8.5% -6.1% Source:Bloomberg,EIA Exhibit4-YTDDemandSummary YTDDemandSummary (inmbpd) 2025 2024 '25%Changevs'24 2023 '25%Changevs'23 FinishedMotorGasoline 9,490 9,537 -0.5% 9,626 -1.4% ReformulatedGasoline 2,974 2,991 -0.6% 2,916 2.0% OtherFinishedMotorGas 6,438 6,553 -1.8% 6,595 -2.4% Kerosene-TypeJetfuel 1,883 1,793 5.0% 1,715 9.8% DistillateFuelOil 5,010 4,815 4.1% 4,936 1.5% ResidualFuelOil 427 435 -2.0% 382 11.5% Propane/Propylene 3,033 2,831 7.1% 2,907 4.3% Demand-Products 19,842 19,410 2.2% 19,567 1.4% Source:Bloomberg,EIA Exhibit5-CrudeOilImpliedDemand 25,000 Exhibit6-CrudeOilInventoryExcl.SPR-Seasonal(1Yr) 600,000 sl e500,000 rra b 0 0400,000 '0 300,000 15913172125293337414549 Weeks 5-YrRange,2020-20245-YrAvg,2020-2024 20242025 600,000 550,000 500,000 450,000 400,000 350,000 300,000 147101316192225283134374043464952 Weeks 5-YrRange,2020-20245-YrAvg,2020-2024 20242025 '000barrels 22,500 000barrels/day 20,000 17,500 15,000 12,500 10,000 147101316192225283134374043464952 Weeks 5-YrRange,2020-20245-YrAvg,2020-2024 20242025 Source:Bloomberg,EIA Exhibit7-TotalProductsImpliedDemand 25,000 000barrels/day 22,500 20,000 17,500 15,000 12,500 10,000 147101316192225283134374043464952 Source:Bloomberg,EIA,Jefferies Exhibit8-TotalProductsInventoryExcl.SPR-Seasonal(1Yr) 30,000 20,000 '000barrels 10,000 0 -10,000 -20,000 -30,000 Weeks 5-YrRange,2020-20245-YrAvg,2020-2024 20242025 Source:Bloomberg,EIA 147101316192225283134374043464952 Weeks 5-YrRange,2020-20245-YrAvg,2020-2024 20242025 Source:Bloomberg,EIA,Jefferies Pleaseseeimportantdisclosureinformationonpages92-96ofthisreport.2 ThisreportisintendedforJefferiesclientsonly.Unauthorizeddistributionisprohibited. EQUITYRESEARCH|Energy EIAWeeklyPetroleumStatusReportData LloydByrne EquityAnalystlloyd.byrne@jefferies.com JohnEdelman EquityAnalystjedelman@jefferies.com EmmaSchwartz EquityAnalystemma.schwartz@jefferies.com SamBurwell sburwell@jefferies.com TaraBleustein EquityAssociatetbleustein@jefferies.com CrudeOil&ProductInventories CrudeOil&ProductsStocks 5/30/20251Week4-WeekTrailing InventorySummary (inmbbl) 5/30/2025 5/23/2025 Change 5/31/2024 WoW%∆ YoY%∆ CrudeOil(includingSPR) 837,881 841,676 (3,795) 826,109 -0.5% 1.4% Commercial 436,059 440,362 (4,303)