标准普尔的展望升级凸显乌兹别克银行的价值；购买2029年高级债券

Restricted - External Valentina Stoykova+44 (0) 20 7773 2552valentina.stoykova@barclays.comBarclays, UK 3UZ Daily: Uzbekistan’s Central Bank tightens microloan requirements starting from 24 July, 28 May 20254See also Uzbek banks: Initiation: Attractive yield exposure to reforms and growth, 18 March 2025sovereign rating is upgraded and if the bank maintains "a RAC ratio higher than 10%, on asustainable basis, and continues improving its asset quality; or we see increased prospects ofsupport from OTP Bank". For context, the Risk Adjusted Capital (RAC) ratio is S&P's measure of abank's capital strength. S&P calculates IPTBZU's RAC at 9.5% in FY24 and expects the ratio torise to 11% in FY25.We think the revision to a Positive Outlook could make it easier for IPTBZU to refinance itsmaturing eurobonds later this year, if the bank decides to do so in the markets rather thanwithin the OTP group. For NBUZB, we think the outlook revision could help the bank inopportunistic issuance (it refinanced its 2025 maturity last year). However, we would expect anycredit rating changes for the banks to be driven by the sovereign. Since the sovereign and allbanks we cover are currently rated BB- at the credit agencies, we think the main impact of anyfuture rating upgrades would be mainly in terms of investor sentiment, given that their bondswould likely remain in the BB bucket in the short term.Key highlights from FY24 results and regulatory developmentsAsset quality metrics improved in FY24 at both IPTBZU and NBUZB compared with H1 24:The share of problem loans (ie, stage 2 and stage 3) declined, while stage 2 and 3 coverageremained stable at IPTBZU and improved at NBUZB. CoR increased to 250bp at NBUZB, from180bp in FY23, which we think reflects the bank's proactive approach to provisioning, given thatits NPL stock was flat y/y in FY24 and stage 2 loans increased only 1.4% y/y. IPTBZU'sprovisioning materially declined in FY24 mainly due to sizeable recoveries, post upfrontprovisioning taken by OTPafterit acquired the bank in 2023. Despite the improvement in FY24,IPTBZU's NPL ratio remains the highest within our Uzbek bank coverage at 21%, driven mainlyby SMEs (11% up from 8% in FY23) and corporate loans (NPL ratio at 7%, down from 10% inFY23). According to OTP management, IPTBZU was not materiallyaffectedby the data integrityissues at the the tax registry that was recently uncovered in Uzbekistan and mentioned on bothOTP (NC) and TBC Bank's (NC) Q1 25 earnings calls.Tightened micro-loan requirements - IPTBZU most exposed among banks we coverThe Uzbekistan Central Bank has introduced further measures to limit growth in micro-loans. Inparticular, the new regulations limit the share of micro-loans to individuals at each bank to amaximum of 25% of the total loan portfolio. Banks that are not in compliance would need todevelop an action plan to align their activities by 20293. Among the Uzbek banks we cover,IPTBZU is most exposed given that c.22% of its loan portfolio are consumer loans. For the otherbanks this seems less of an issue: NBUZB's share of consumer loans was 3% in FY24, while forSBQNZU and AGROBK micro-loans were 4% of total, as of H1 24. Limiting growth in one of thehighest margin segments which also comprises a sizeable portion of its loan portfolio, posesrisks to IPTBZU's profitability, in our view, but we also see a number of mitigating factors to thisrisk. For example, the bank could be given until 2029 to adjust to the new regulatory limitationsif needed, and OTP also mentioned on the Q1 25 earnings call that mortgages remain the keystrategic area for retail loan growth for its Uzbekistan business (for which they receivesubsidised funding from the government and are a low credit risk product; mortgage NPLs atIPTBZU were 0.8% and covered at 55%, as of FY24). OTP management also noted that it seesopportunities in the corporate loan segment.Sizeable FY24 capitalbuffersand improving y/y liquidityIPTBZU and NBUZB were among the better capitalised banks compared with AGROBK andSQBNZU, with end-FY24 T1/CARbufferscomfortable in excess of 300bp, which is sizeable, in ourview4. Assuming current NPL coverage stays unchanged, we estimate their excess capital could2 absorb NPL ratios of 29% (vs 21% in FY24) for IPTBZU and 18% (vs 4% in FY24) for NBUZB; or putdifferently,some 10% of performing loans for IPTBZU and 16% for NBUZB could turn into NPLsbefore their capitalbufferswould be depleted (Figure 1).In our second scenario, loss absorption is reduced, as we assume the banks provision fully fornew NPLs (ie, we do not take into account any mitigating factors such as collateral). In that case,we estimate their excess capitalbufferscould absorb NPL ratios up to 26% for IPTBZU and 12%for NBUZB, from 21% and 4%, respectively, in FY24; or putdifferently,some 6% for IPTBZU and9% for NBUZB of performing loans could turn into NPLs before their capitalbufferswould bedepleted.On the funding side, loan-to-deposit ratios of 181% at NBUZ