轮胎：橡胶战争（第四部分） -日本和韩国竞争对手深度剖析。通过品牌投资而非研发投资坚守阵地

www.bernsteinresearch.com BERNSTEIN TICKER TABLETickerRating5108.JP (Bridgestone)OCON.GRMML.FPOPIRC.IMMJPLEDMO - Outperform, M - Market-Perform, U - Underperform, NR - Not Rated, CS - Coverage SuspendedSource: Bloomberg, Bernstein estimates and analysis.INVESTMENT IMPLICATIONSWe rateMichelin Outperform. Michelin is the longtime innovation leader in tyres, with a flawless record of launching ‘categorykiller’ tyres. This innovation, coupled with Michelin’s pricing power through the cycle, and high market share in premiumsegments, mean we expect ongoing positive mix shift to drive margin and valuation upside. Alongside the earnings story,Michelin also has balance sheet firepower with leverage at a 20-year low. Today’s committed €1bn buyback and dividend onlyaccount for ~60% FCF to 2026, meaning scope for more buybacks or M&A.•Michelin: Nunc est Bibendum. A Primer on our new top pick in Tyres (Outperform)We rateBridgestone Outperform. Bridgestone’s recent performance has been held back by an inferior product, howeverearly data suggests their new ENLITEN technology could be gamechanging. This should allow the company to accelerate mixshift into premium tyres, the key profit pool in the industry, driving margin and valuation. Bridgestone also has exposure to otherattractive segments like high-margin mining tyres and fleet management•Bridgestone Primer: Starting on the path to ENLITEN-ment (Outperform)We ratePirelli Market-Perform. Pirelli is the sector ‘darling’: it has a flawless record of beating on earnings in recent years,zero analyst sell ratings and near zero short interest. The premium tyre business is rightly recognised and understood - but thisis priced in. We see Pirelli relatively well set into 2025, with potential upside from tariff-driven market share gains or excesspricing, but see governance questions overhanging the stock in the near term.•Global Tyres: Pressure Monitor (Q1 Preview). Upgrading Pirelli to Market-PerformWe rateContinental Market-Perform. The tyre business is most exposed to European replacement strength and we seemargin expansion ahead. There are also no imminent negative catalysts on our radar, and the spinoff of Automotive (which wecontinue to view as structurally challenged) likely dominates fundamentals.•Global Tyres 2025 Outlook: Box Box! Downgrading Pirelli to Underperform; Upgrading Continental to Market-Perform•Continental AG Primer: In the eye of the storm (Underperform)EUROPEAN AUTOMOBILES & COMPONENTS 2 Table Of ContentsToday’s State of Play...............................................................................................................................................................................................................4Japanese/Korean tyremakers could pose a viable threat to the Tier 1s...................................................................................................... 4However, they haven’t been able to match Tier 1 technology..........................................................................................................................9Japanese/Korean investment priorities have often focused around brand building............................................................................. 13Profiling the Tyremakers..................................................................................................................................................................................................... 15Sumitomo Rubber..........................................................................................................................................................................................................15Hankook.............................................................................................................................................................................................................................16Yokohama..........................................................................................................................................................................................................................17Toyo..................................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 18Kumho................................................................................................................................................................................................................................ 19Nexen..................................................................................................................................................................................................................................20DETAILSRelated ReseachOn the IndustryEuropean Auto Suppliers: Initiating on Tyres - A gripping journeyGlobal Tyres 2025 Outlook: Box Box! Downgrading Pirel