Cousins Properties Inc (CUZ) 股票研究

1.761.283Q234Q23 18.3%3.2%Exhibit 2 - Leasing Volume.1,0001,200Source: Jefferies, Company Filings90.0%1Q242Q243Q244Q241Q25Exhibit 4 - Leasing Costs.$10.00$12.00$14.00Source: Jefferies, Company Filings 2026E2027E2028E1.801.831.8710.0x9.8x9.3x1.321.371.45663.2709.9756.253902004006008004Q181Q192Q193Q194Q191Q202Q203Q204Q201Q212Q213Q214Q211Q222Q223Q224Q221Q232Q233Q234Q231Q242Q243Q244Q241Q25New Leasing Volume (K SF)Renewal Leasing Volume (K SF)$10.81$0.00$2.00$4.00$6.00$8.004Q181Q192Q193Q194Q191Q202Q203Q204Q201Q212Q213Q214Q211Q222Q223Q224Q221Q232Q233Q234Q231Q242Q243Q244Q241Q25Leasing Costs PSF Peter Abramowitz * | Equity Analyst(212) 336-7241 | pabramowitz@jefferies.comJonathan Petersen * | Equity Analyst(212) 284-1705 | jpetersen@jefferies.comKatie Elders * | Equity Associate+1 (917) 421-1968 | kelders@jefferies.com The Long View: Cousins PropertiesInvestment Thesis / Where We Differ•CUZ is a direct play on Sun Belt markets, which have seen strongdemographic trends accelerate since the beginning of the pandemic.•The company's mostly Class-A portfolio should benefit from the flight toquality that has defined the office market.•We believe the Street is underestimating the impact of recent accretionfrom acquisitions. With the lowest cost of capital in our Office coverageuniverse, CUZ is well-positioned to continue executing on acquisitions ataccretive cap rates.Base Case,$32, +12%•High-80's avg occupancy•Mid/Low-20's leasing spreads in '25/'26•Steady pace of acquisitions in '25/'26•~7.5% weighted-average yield on developmentpipeline•DDM-derived PT $32Sustainability MattersTop Material Issues: 1) Energy Managementis a top ESG issue for a REIT, as energy-efficient buildingsattract environmentally conscious tenants, which help increase rents and decrease utility costs. Asowners of these properties, REITs are in a unique position to help their tenants achieve their ownenvironmental goals and spread best practices for energy management.2) Product Design & LifecycleManagementare major considerations for a REIT, given its involvement from acquisition, to development,to demolition. REITs need to incorporate ESG considerations across a building lifecycle in their acquisitionand development strategies. Those that do this sooner rather than later will be the least exposed topotential regulatory risks.Company Targets: 1)Reduce energy use intensity, with a 25% reduction by 2030 vs 2018.2)Reduce GHGemission intensity, with a 25% reduction by 2030 vs 2018.Questions to Management: 1)What strategies did you implement to achieve your carbon emission goal?2)Do you offer, or plan to offer, incentives to your tenants that promote energy efficiency?ESG Sector Deep Dive: REITsPlease see important disclosure information on pages 6 - 11 of this report.This report is intended for Jefferies clients only. Unauthorized distribution is prohibited. Upside Scenario,$45, +57%•Low-90's avg occupancy•High-20's leasing spreads•Accretive acquisitions in '25/'26•8%+ weighted-average yield on developmentpipeline•DDM-derived PT $45 Risk/Reward - 12 Month View504540353025201520252024Downside Scenario,$22, -23%•Mid-80's avg occupancy•Persistent cost-cutting in tech and return-to-office delays tamper leasing activity long term;leasing spreads decelerate to single digits•No acquisitions•Delays in development deliveries/leasing; yieldsbelow expectations (sub 7s)•DDM-derived PT $22Catalysts•Accretiveannouncements•Unexpected tenant move-outs•Reversal of structural shift in Sun Belt officemarkets acquisitions/development 2 Exhibit 6 - CUZ Net Asset Value (NAV).($ in millions)Line ItemNOIWholly-Owned NOIPro Rata JV NOIAdjustmentsCore NOICIPEst YieldCIP NOIPro Forma NOIG&A @ 25%CapEx Reserve @ 20% of NOINet Pro Forma NOIAssetsNominal Cap RateEconomic Cap RateMarket Value of AssetsFee IncomeFee Income at 4xCashOther AssetsLand Held for DevelopmentGross Asset ValueLiabilitiesWholly-Owned DebtOther LiabilitiesPro Rata JV DebtPreferred StockTotal LiabilitiesMinority InterestNet Asset ValueDiluted Shares OutstandingNAV per ShareStock PricePremium/Discount to NAVImplied Nominal Cap RateImplied Economic Cap RateImplied NAV GrowthApplied Value/Sq FtImplied Value/Sq FtSource: Jefferies, Company Materials, FactSetPlease see important disclosure information on pages 6 - 11 of this report.This report is intended for Jefferies clients only. Unauthorized distribution is prohibited. Exhibit 7 - DEI Dividend Discount Model (DDM).Dividend Discount ModelFunds Available for Distribution per SharePayout RatioDividend Per SharePresent Value of DividendsTerminal ValueSum of Present Value of DividendsPresent Value of Terminal ValueImplied Equity Value per Share12-Month Equity Value per ShareValuation AssumptionsTerminal Annual FAD Growth RateMid-Term Annual FAD Growth RateRisk Free RateBeta (5-year historical adjusted weekly vs S&P500)Equity Risk PremiumCost of Equity CapitalSource: Jefferies, FactSet, BloombergPlease see important disclosure information on pages 6 - 11 of thi