美国人寿保险：回到未来；修订目标价格并重新排名股票

Equity ResearchJune 3, 2025Suneet Kamath, CFA * | Equity Analyst(212) 778-8602 | skamath@jefferies.comNathan Satterfield * | Equity Associate+1 (212) 778-8954 | nsatterfield@jefferies.comKEY STOCKS FEATURED INCLUDE:PRICE TARGET$284.00$110.00PRICE TARGET$70.00 ($66.00)$41.00 ($37.00)$48.00 ($46.00)$110.00 ($107.00) Summary of ChangesCompanyEquitable HoldingsEQHPreviousCorebridge FinancialCRBGPreviousLincoln NationalLNCPreviousReinsuranceGroupAmericaRGAUnumUNMPreviousMetLifeMETPreviousAmeripriseAMPPreviousPrudential FinancialPRUPreviousCNO FinancialCNOPreviousJackson FinancialJXNPrimericaPRIPreviousPrincipal FinancialPFGGlobe LifeGLPreviousBrighthouse FinancialBHFPlease see important disclosure information on pages 58 - 66 of this report.This report is intended for Jefferies clients only. Unauthorized distribution is prohibited. RatingPrice^BUY$53.61BUY$32.95BUY$33.23ofBUY$203.63BUY$82.14BUY$79.32BUY$513.24BUY$104.42HOLD$38.20HOLD$84.43HOLD$272.49HOLD$77.34HOLD$122.80HOLD$59.12 CompanyVoya FinancialVOYAPreviousAflacAFL^Prior trading day's closing price unless otherwise noted.Cons. EPS: Source for consensus: FactSetCons. Rev.: Source for consensus: FactSetPlease see important disclosure information on pages 58 - 66 of this report.This report is intended for Jefferies clients only. Unauthorized distribution is prohibited. Back to the PastWhenwe published our 2025 Outlook(see:HERE),we were focused on diversifying ourrecommended exposure to US Life stocks in the event of a market correction (i.e., after two yearsof strong equity market returns in 2023/24).As a result, we started to recommend 3 US Life baskets that included one stock from each ofthe following categories: 1) companies levered to our annuity growth thesis (i.e., "Growers"), 2)companies that had idiosyncratic re-rating potential (i.e., "Re-Raters") and 3) companies that hadlower betas / were more defensive (i.e., "Stablizers").Figure 1 shows the 3 baskets that we recommended as part of our 2025 Outlook and each company'sbeta. Since our 2025 Outlook, we downgraded BHF to Hold on 2/3/25 (see: HERE), which collapsedBasket 3.Figure 1 - US Life: 3-Year Stock Betas and YTD Stock Price PerformanceBaskets and ratings are as of the 2025 US Life Outlook from 12/9/24.1.30.70.812%12%-5%0.00.40.81.21.62.0EQHUNMRGABasket #1GrowerRe-RaterStabilizerSource: FactSet, JefferiesFigure 2 shows the YTD performance of our baskets versus the SPX and our Hold-rated stocks. Asnoted above, we effectively collapsed Basket 3 with our BHF downgrade, so we stop the time seriesfor this basket at 2/3/25. On a YTD basis, Basket 1 and Basket 2 have outperformed the SPX andour Hold-rated stocks. That said, we note that AMP and PRU, our remaining Buy-rated stocks thathad been part of Basket 3, have underperformed.Please see important disclosure information on pages 58 - 66 of this report.This report is intended for Jefferies clients only. Unauthorized distribution is prohibited. 1.31.69%CRBGBasket #2 0.91.21.41.01.10.61.01.61.10.90.64%-4%-4%23%-13%2%10%-1%-5%-4%0%0%-15%-5%5%15%25%LNCMETAMPBHFPRUCNOGLPFGJXNVOYAPRIAFLBasket #3Hold RatedYTD Performance (rhs)Average Beta = 1.1 Figure 2 - US Life: YTD Performance of JEF's US Life BasketsPerformance based on simple averages.(20%)(15%)(10%)(5%)0%5%10%15%20%1/21/91/16 1/23 1/30 2/6 2/13 2/20 2/27 3/6 3/13 3/20 3/27 4/3 4/10 4/17 4/24 5/1Basket 1 (EQH, RGA, UNM)Source: FactSet, JefferiesMoreover, in the case of LNC and UNM, which were two of our Re-Raters, both insurers announcedcompany-specific catalysts earlier this year (e.g., a FCF conversion upward revision and Bain Capitalequity investment for LNC and an LTC reinsurance deal for UNM). While we would argue that bothstocks have more upside, we feel it fair to note that some of their respective catalysts have beenannounced, particularly in the case of UNM.While our basket approach has worked reasonably well on a YTD basis, our individual stock pickinghas been a bit more mixed. Figure 3 shows YTD stock price performance, decomposed betweenchanges to 2025 EPS estimates and changes in 2025E P/E multiples.Figure 3 - US Life: Decomposition of 2025 YTD Stock Price Performance.(6%)(1%)(7%)(5%)(20%)(10%)0%10%20%30%PRUJXNSource: FactSet, JefferiesIf we exclude BHF, where we argue YTD outperformance is more a result of takeover speculationrather than core fundamentals (which, frankly, have been rather weak on the capital / RBC front), wehave had Buy ratings on the 4 of the top 5 performing stocks (i.e., UNM, EQH, CRBG and LNC). Thatsaid, referring to the left of Figure 3, we have also had Buy ratings on 3 of the 5 worst performingstocks in our coverage (i.e., PRU, RGA and AMP).We continue to like all of our 8 Buy-rated stocks but for different reasons. Figure 10 to Figure 13 in theAppendix provide additional details on our specific views on these 8 stocks as well as the rest of ourPlease see important disclosure information on pages 58 - 66 of this report.This report is intended for Jefferies cl