科派（CPAY）：绘制财年有机增长图并更新子细分市场构建；燃料/外汇检查

Equity ResearchJune 4, 2025Trevor Williams * | Equity Analyst(415) 229-1546 | twilliams3@jefferies.comAlexander Glockner * | Equity Associate+1 (415) 229-8729 | aglockner@jefferies.comRyan Levine * | Equity Associate+1 (415) 229-1512 | rlevine4@jefferies.com$326.05^$375.00 | +15%$400.81 - $247.10FLOAT (%) | ADV MM (USD)93.9% | 161.92$23.3B^Prior trading day's closing price unless otherwiseJEF vs CONS20242025NMNMNANA 2024E2025E18.9522.153,974.64,420.34,873.83,974.64,404.64,863.019.0121.10-6.5%7.4%2.4%-0.1%1Q252Q25E3Q25E4Q25E 2026E25.9524.57 Current FX spot rates imply ~$35mn incremental tailwind; fuel prices tracking ~in-line.Our fueltracker implies an avg. fuel price of $3.01 in FY25, ~in line with the $3.03 guide. Current FX spotrates imply a $35mn incremental FX tailwind vs. the FY guide (USD 1% weaker vs. GBP and BRLlast 1 mo).Refreshing our sub-segment build (Excel avail.); for FY25 we model:•Vehicle: +8% in FY25•Fleet: +4%,with growth improving to 6% in 4Q from 1% in 1Q, driven by NA Fleet growthramping to 5% in 4Q vs. -3% Y/Y in 1Q. We est. Int'l growth to slow slightly to ~7% in2H vs. 8% in 1Q due to tougher comps.•Brazil: +18%vs. 22% in 1Q,as we expect toll-related and “expanded network” growth toslow from 1Q. We est. Zapay + Gringo grew ~70% Y/Y in 1Q, adding ~3ppt to Brazilorganic growth and expect a similar level of contribution to FY25.•Corp. Pay.: +18%vs. 19% in 1Q (~20% ex-LY) and builds in:1)Cross-Border growth to accel.1ppt in 2Q (based on comments on April strength from tariff pre-buying) and 2H growthslowing to 17%/16% in 3Q/4Q reflecting a ~3ppt tariff-related headwind (now potentiallyconservative),2)Direct Payables growth to slow from 19% in 1Q to 14% by 4Q due to lappingone-time rev synergies,3)Partner channel growth slowing to 7% in 4Q vs. 16% in 1Q.•Lodging: ~flatvs. -1% in 1Q,which assumes:1)Workforce growth stays at -2% Y/Y,2)Airlinesimproves to 6% by 4Q from -8% Y/Y in 1Q (weighed down by tough comp in the re-ticketingbiz),3)Insurance growth +8% Y/Y.•Other (i.e. Gift):+14% FY growth vs. -13% in 1Q, which assumes 24% growth in 2Q / 23% in3Q / 24% in 4Q.20+ Exhibits inside.Please see important disclosure information on pages 16 - 21 of this report.This report is intended for Jefferies clients only. Unauthorized distribution is prohibited. The Long View: CorpayInvestment Thesis / Where We Differ•Ongoing organic and inorganic mix shift to Corporate Payments shouldprovide natural growth accretion to the consolidated organic growth profile,lifting normalized growth to high-single-digits over the medium-term.•We expect the multiple to re-rate as the market better appreciates thedurability of CPAY's organic growth profile.•We see significant earnings power potential through FY26 driven byaccretive M&A, lower interest expense, and ample room for outsizedbuyback activity.Base Case,$375, +15%•Fleet organic revenue growth of mid-single-digits in FY26 driven by, new sales and strengthin international•Corporate Payments organic growth in the high-teens over the med-term•Lodging organic growth recovers to mid-singledigits in FY26•Margin expansion driven by cost-savingsrealization and subdued credit losses•Capacity to return capital through buybacks•Disciplined M&A provides opportunities toenhance growth profile and revenue mix•PT: $375; FY26E EPS $24.57; target multiple~15xSustainability MattersTop Material Issue(s): 1) Data Security:CPAY, among others in the payments industry, holds largeamounts of customer data, including credit card data and personal information, which can be used inharmful ways if exposed to bad actors.Company Target(s): 1)Assist global fleet operators to reduce global CO2 emissions through the transitionto electric vehicle charging, transition planning, advanced route planning, and carbon emissions reporting.2)Pursue a major multi-year strategic initiative to consolidate data centers to reduce power usage andfootprintQs to Mgmt: 1)What percent of your fuel cards today can pay for the use of alternative energy sources,such as electricity and hydrogen?2)How does the transition to EV impact the P&L, specifically revenueper vehicle and margins?3)What investments are needed to ensure global fleet operators experience asmooth transition to electric vehicles?ESG Sector Deep Dive: US Software, IT Services & PaymentsPlease see important disclosure information on pages 16 - 21 of this report.This report is intended for Jefferies clients only. Unauthorized distribution is prohibited. Upside Scenario,$440, +35%•Corporate Payments organic revenue growth isable to sustain a high-teen growth profile overthe medium term•M&A accelerates and allows for further cross-sell and profitability expansion•Fleet organic growth accelerates to mid- tohigh-single digits as new sales channel picksup and reinforces the med-term organic growthalgo•Short-term interest rates fall, providing relief tointerest expense•Upside to synergy targets for GPS / Paymerangprovide an upside lever to EPS•PT: $440; FY