班丹银行（BANDHAN）：路演反馈：近期关注资产质量；目标是到2028财年实现1.8-1.9%的资产回报率

2025A2026E2027E2028E73.975.780.494.527.531.738.145.111.9%12.2%13.1%13.7%1.49%1.54%1.62%1.67% Prakhar Sharma * | Equity Analyst91 22 4224 6129 | prakhar.sharma@jefferies.comVinayak Agarwal * | Equity Associate+91 22 4224 6178 | vagarwal2@jefferies.com The Long View: Bandhan BankInvestment Thesis / Where We Differ•With a strong liabilities profile, healthy capitalisation (Tier-1 of 18%) andbest-in-class operating profit profile (PPOP RoA of 4%), Bandhan Bankshould be able to navigate the MFI stress better than peers.•We expect Bandhan Bank to deliver a robust 1.5% ROA / 12% RoE inFY26E, despite building in a cushion to our provision estimates.Base Case,INR195, +15%•Loan CAGR of 15% (over FY25-28E)•NIMs around 6.3% (avg. FY25-28E)•Credit cost of 2.3% over FY25-28E•Valuation at 1x Jun-27 ABV - Rs195Sustainability MattersTop Material Issue(s): 1)Incorporation of ESG into credit analysis2)Responsible Finance3)Lending /Selling Practices4)Customer Privacy & Data SecurityCompany Target(s): 1)Growth in MFI loans. Increasing the share of retail financing (including homeloans) in non-metros 2) Reduction in carbon footprint through greater use of tech and promoting theuse of digital platforms (internet and mobile banking) by customers.Qs to Mgmt: 1)How do you plan to participate in the +US$12tn green funding gap in India? What is theshare of company’s revenues from sectors promoting socio-economic causes, and from non-metro &non-tier 1 locations? 4) What steps is the company taking to ensure strong data security and customerprivacy, given the increasing share of digital transactions? 5) What steps is the company taking topromote gender diversity at different levels? What are initiatives towards employee training/reskilling?Please see important disclosure information on pages 11 - 16 of this report.This report is intended for Jefferies clients only. Unauthorized distribution is prohibited. Upside Scenario,INR210, +24%•Loan CAGR of 16% (over FY25-28E)•NIMs around 6.4% (avg. FY25-28E)•Credit cost of 2.1% over FY25-28E•Valuation at 1.1x Jun-27 ABV - Rs210 Downside Scenario,INR150, -11%•Loan CAGR of 14% (over FY25-28E)•NIMs around 6.2% (avg. FY25-28E)•Credit cost of 2.5% over FY25-28E•Valuation at 0.8x Jun-27 ABV - Rs150Catalysts•Easing of stress arising from COVID, esp. inBandhan's core eastern geographies.•RBI is expected to issue a draft paper onharmonised norms for microfinance. Whileforced caps on ticket sizes & spreads arekey risks, any favourable outcome could be acatalyst.•A sharp rebound in economic recovery wouldaid normalisation of collections. 2 Watchful of asset quality trends in near termExhibit 2 - Rise in slippages in recent qtrs driven by higher stress in MFI....9.96.34.03.913.910.205101520253QFY244QFY24Source: Company, JefferiesExhibit 4 - Mgt clarified that worst of asset quality pressures is behind, so slippages & credit costs shouldmoderate from here....Source: Company, JefferiesExhibit 5 - ...but is still watchful of impact on collections in near-term as tightening of lending caps kickedin from 1-Apr.Source: Company, JefferiesPlease see important disclosure information on pages 11 - 16 of this report.This report is intended for Jefferies clients only. Unauthorized distribution is prohibited. 5.47.512.013.53.53.64.24.08.911.116.217.51QFY252QFY253QFY254QFY25Slippages (Rsbn)MFINon-MFIExhibit 3 - ... even as it improves in the non-MFI segment.0.0%2.0%4.0%6.0%8.0%10.0%Source: Company, Jefferies Exhibit 6 - Collection efficiency improved during the qtr; However, West Bengal saw 10bps decline QoQ.Source: Company, JefferiesExhibit 7 - Collection efficiency of EEB portfolio saw 40bps improvement QoQ.99.0%97.6%98.8%96%97%98%99%100%Mar-24Source: Company data, Jefferies; Collection efficiency is for the quarterExhibit 8 - Rise in SMA 0 in MFI was due to holidays at qtr-end where collections are not made but mostof it recovered later; SMA-1&2 fall as core asset quality normalises.Source: Company, JefferiesPlease see important disclosure information on pages 11 - 16 of this report.This report is intended for Jefferies clients only. Unauthorized distribution is prohibited. Exhibit 9 - Bandhan has lower share of leveraged borrowers but will watchout for stability here over1HFY26.Source: Company, JefferiesExhibit 10 - EEB stress pool rose to Rs58bn in 4Q vs. 54bn in 3Q.Source: Company, JefferiesLowering share of MFI loans over next 2yrs to 35%Exhibit 12 - Over next 2 years, bandhan will lower share of MFI loans to 35%from 41% now....MFI41%Source: Company, JefferiesPlease see important disclosure information on pages 11 - 16 of this report.This report is intended for Jefferies clients only. Unauthorized distribution is prohibited. Secured51%Other unsecured8%FY25 AUM Mix (%)Exhibit 13 - ...and increase share of secured book to 55% from 51% now, led byhousing, other retail and commercial.Source: Company, Jefferies Secured55%MFI35%Other unsecured10%FY27E AUM Mix (%)5 Exhibit 14 - Bank aspires to build a diversif