比亚迪（1211）比亚迪（1211 HK 002594 CH）H A买入 买入降价是重新调整而非重置——量大于利仍是策略

Disclosures &DisclaimerThis report must be read with the disclosures and the analyst certifications inthe Disclosure appendix, and with the Disclaimer, which forms part of it.Price cutsreflectrepackage of existing subsidies with someincremental seasonal promotionsBYD to prioritisemarketshareandscale over margins;overseas/high-end business to buffer the profit impactImproving order momentum and overseasmix likely to buffershort-term volatility; maintain Buyand TPs of HKD453/RMB430Breaking down price cuts:BYD launchedanew round of promotional pricingacross its productson 23May, with its entry level model,Sea Gull,offered atRMB55.8Kaftersubsidiesand promotions. While this appears aggressive on thesurface, it is largely repackaging of existing governmentsubsidies, with marginallyincremental OEM/channel seasonal promotion, rather than a fundamental shift inpricing discipline. This campaign reflects BYD’s focus on defending and expandingitsmarket share, especially as the industry edges toward consolidation.Market share over margin:The price move reinforces BYD’s strategy tofavourscale overtemporaryper-car profitability in domestic EV. This round of seasonalpromotion coincides withsoftdomesticdemand, weak consumption sentiment, andintensecompetition(i.e. more new car supply) in Q2. Wethinkthe actual incrementaldiscount (vs. beforetheChineseLabor day holiday)ismarginal and potentiallyhighervolume/scaleislikely to mitigate part of the short-term profitper car impact.Overseasand high-end tractionisthe buffer:Domesticvolatilityis a feature (andreflectsoverall demand weakness and higher competition),not a structural flaw, ofBYD’s volume driven model. BYD’s overseasbusinessremainsstrong and marginaccretive, whichislikely to cushion the domestic pricing cycle. Monthly overseasvolumewas79,086 units in April (21% of total passenger car wholesale vs. 10% in2024).Thehigh-end brand/model volume ramp up (such as Denza’s N9),and itsabove-average margin,couldhelp to contain and absorb the margin pressure.Maintain Buy ratings withunchanged TPs;thesales dataiskey:BYD A and Htradeat 22x/23x2025eP/E, higher than local brand peers (exhibit 1). We maintainBuy on BYD A and H sharesdue tothevolume priority strategy,while theprice cutsshouldboost better scale, whichabsorb part of the margin pressure.Expandingoverseasand high-end mix alsostabilisethe blended profit per car.Exhibit1.Valuation comparisonTickerCompanyCurrencyRatingMarketcap3M ADTV CloseTarget(USDm)(USDm)price price002594 CHBYD ACNYBuy160,450782381.00430.00 13%22.117.113.61211 HKBYD HHKDBuy229,269741425.20453.00 7%22.617.514.0175 HKGeelyHKDBuy47,30819818.38 26.00 41%12.59.3601633 CHGreat Wall A CNYHold23,2656622.79 24.00 5%19.016.32333 HKGreat Wall HHKDHold26,7886211.98 11.90-1%9.27.9Source:Bloomberg,HSBC estimates.Closing price as of26 May2025BYD(1211 HK/002594 CH)H/A:Buy/Buy:Price cuts reframe, not reset–volumeover margin remains the play ◆◆◆ _____ROE_____3.63.023%23%24%3.73.123%23%24%1.51.315%17%19%21.912%13%14%10.912%13%14%PREVIOUS TARGET(HKD)453.00UPSIDE/DOWNSIDE+6.5%PREVIOUS TARGET(CNY)430.00UPSIDE/DOWNSIDE+12.9%1211 HK/1211.HKXXXXXX.XX1,796,610/229,2699999.9917%/29%XXXXXX.XX741/7829999.9912/2025e12/2026e12/2027e17.2722.2327.9217.2722.2327.920.00.00.00.018.0922.2826.40 2Financials & valuationFinancial statementsYear to12/2024aProfit & loss summary(CNYm)Revenue777,102EBITDA105,458Depreciation & amortisation-65,079Operating profit/EBIT40,379Netinterest-1,216PBT49,681HSBC PBT49,681Taxation-8,093Net profit40,254HSBC net profit40,254Cash flowsummary(CNYm)Cash flow from operations133,454Capex-97,360Cash flow from investment-129,082Dividends-9,014Change in net debt-3,582FCF equity37,162Balance sheet summary(CNYm)Intangible fixed assets42,851Tangible fixed assets282,242Current assets370,572Cash & others102,739Total assets783,356Operating liabilities564,307Gross debt20,361Net debt-82,378Shareholders' funds185,251Invested capital28,620Ratio, growth and per share analysisYear to12/2024aY-o-y % changeRevenue29.0EBITDA38.0Operating profit21.8PBT33.3HSBC EPS34.1Ratios (%)Revenue/IC (x)51.5ROIC254.8ROE24.8ROA6.1EBITDAmargin13.6Operating profit margin5.2EBITDA/net interest (x)86.7Net debt/equity-41.5Net debt/EBITDA (x)-0.8CF from operations/net debtPer share data(CNY)EPSreported (diluted)13.84HSBC EPS (diluted)13.84DPS3.10Book value63.68 Key chartsExhibit2.1Q25 blendedprofitper car atRMB9.15kSource:Company data, HSBC.Exhibit4.BYD 2025 AD models summaryPrice rangeRMB200k rangeRMB150k rangeRMB100k rangeBelow RMB100k RangeQin Plus DM-ITotalSource:Company data, HSBC-200,000400,000600,000800,0001,000,0001,200,0001,400,0001,600,0001,800,0001Q212Q213Q214Q21Quarterly sales volume (units)Blended net profit per vehicle (RMB, RHS) Valuation and risksBYD002594 CH1211 HKCurrentprice:RMB381.00HKD425.20Target price:RMB430.00HKD453.00Up/downside:+12.9%/+6.5%A: BuyH: BuyNote: Priced at close of26May2025.*Employed by a non-US affiliate of HSBC Securities (USA) Inc. and is notregistered/qualified pu