Mayora Indah Tbk（MYOR IJ）：持有：营业收入状况良好，但净利润表现较弱

EquitiesFood Products Hold:Healthy top-line,but weakbottom-line Indonesia ◆Short-term headwindsforinput costs, even as revenuegrowth remains healthy MAINTAIN HOLD TARGET PRICE(IDR)PREVIOUS TARGET(IDR)2375.002350.00SHARE PRICE(IDR)UPSIDE/DOWNSIDE2280.00+4.2%(as of28 May 2025) ◆However, we expect FY25 net income to fall ◆Maintain Hold rating with a TP of IDR2,375(from IDR2,350) Revenue growth is intact, risk lies in input costs:Despitethe fewer number ofworking days in 1Q25, Mayoramanaged to register impressive 13% Y-o-Y revenuegrowth. However, elevated input costs (particularly for coffee,cocoa and, to a lesserextent, sugar) brought about a significant compression in the gross profit margin(GPM) and consequently operating income and net income. FY25 net income to decline:We find Mayora’s top-line growth impressive as thecompany continues to identify new areas of growth. We think that its focus ongrowing volume and securing market shareisthe right approachas aconsumercompanyin a competitive landscape. We now thinkMayoracan register 10% Y-o-Yrevenuegrowth, in-line with its guidance. However, given the elevated input costs(particularly cocoa and coffee) and the company’s need to strike a balance betweenpassing on higher input cost and securing its market share, we thinkMayorawilllikely de-prioritise net income growth. We think FY25 net income is likely to decline–a scenario thatismore pessimistic than the guidanceof net incomegrowth. Maintain non-consensus Hold rating:We seeincreasingrisks from rising inputcosts not being fully passed onas consumer price increasesin FY25.OurFY25EBITand net income forecasts are approximately17% and 16% below consensus,respectively. We think consensus underestimates the potential margin compressionthat may result from higher input costs and the low utilisation of the new factory.Furthermore, we think that advertising and promotion (A&P) spending is worthmonitoring–A&P spending onanominal basis in FY24wasc25% lowerthanthepre-pandemiclevelwhile A&P as apercentageof revenuewas7.1% in FY24 (201913.6%). While this is not an immediate concern, there is a risk that underinvestmentin the company’s brand equity may weakenitsgrowth outlook. Selviana Aripin*, CFAAnalyst, ASEAN ConsumerThe Hongkong and Shanghai Banking CorporationLimited, Singapore Branchselviana.aripin@hsbc.com.sg+65 6658 0610 Increase TP to IDR2,375(from IDR2,350):Ourhigher TP is driven by a higherrevenue growth rate and a more favourable tax assumption, which is partly offset bya lower operating income assumption. The TP of IDR2,375 translates into 19.5x2025e P/E and 12.0x 2025eEV/EBITDA. The TPimpliesc4% upsideand wethereforemaintainaHold rating. Rayman Kaur Chadha*AssociateBangalore * Employed by a non-US affiliate of HSBC Securities (USA) Inc, and isnot registered/ qualified pursuant to FINRA regulations GCC Exchanges Conference 2025 16 -19 June, The May Fair Hotel, London Register Issuer of report:The Hongkong and ShanghaiBanking Corporation Limited, Singapore Branch This report must be read with the disclosures and the analyst certifications inthe Disclosure appendix, and with the Disclaimer, which forms part of it.MDDI (P) 005/01/2025 MDDI (P) 006/09/2024 MDDI (P) 004/10/2024 MDDI (P) 020/10/2024 View HSBC Global Research at:https://www.research.hsbc.com Financials & valuation:Mayora Indah Tbk Source: HSBCNote:Priced at close of 28 May 2025 1Q25 results Change in estimates We cut our net income estimates by 13%/6%/2% for 2025/2026/2027 due to higher COGS andoperating expense estimates as we incorporate 1Q25 results. Our net income forecast is belowconsensus due to our morepessimistic gross profit marginassumption. MYOR: HSBC vsconsensus We raise our target price from IDR2,350 to IDR2,375 and maintainaHold rating on the stock.The higher TP is driven by a higher revenue growth rate and a more favourable tax assumption,which is partly offset by a lower operating income assumption. Valuation Risksto our view Upside risks:Faster-than-expected increase in exportsales, owing to market share gains in the Philippines;larger-than-expected operating margins due to fallingcommodity input prices; and new product launchesleading to quicker-than-expected revenue growth. Downside risks: Intense competition from rivals, suchas Universal Robina in the Philippines; a spike in rawmaterial costs, resulting in margin pressure; and anyaffordability challenge from end customers may resultin Mayora having to either cut prices or risk losingmarket share. Disclosure appendix Analyst Certification The following analyst(s), economist(s), or strategist(s) who is(are) primarily responsible for this report, including any analyst(s)whose name(s) appear(s) as author of an individual section or sections of the report and any analyst(s) named as the coveringanalyst(s) of a subsidiary company in a sum-of-the-parts valuation certifies(y) that the opinion(s) on the subject security(ies) orissuer(s), any views or forecas