关于联合航空-捷蓝航空蓝天合作伙伴关系的思考：该协议应推动各航空公司各自的常旅客计划产生增量价值，并从战略上为两家航空公司在容量受限的纽约机场提供更大的准入机会；对于这一拟议的合作伙伴关系，双方的战略价值似乎都很高。

Restricted - External North America AirlinesPOSITIVENorth America AirlinesBrandon R. Oglenski+1 212 526 8903brandon.oglenski@barclays.comBCI, USJohn Dorsett+1 212 526 8487john.dorsett@barclays.comBCI, USEric Morgan, CFA+1 212 526 9642eric.morgan@barclays.comBCI, USDavid Zazula, CFA+1 212 526 5108david.zazula@barclays.comBCI, US departure shares across Boston, New York (EWR, JFK & LGA), Fort Lauderdale, West Palm Beachand Orlando.Blue Sky partnership is built around the ability to cross-leverage frequent flier benefits forboth JetBlue and United customers, with flight interline agreements, travel products andNYC area airport access significant benefits.While JetBlue’s prior partnership with AmericanAirlines dubbed the Northeast Alliance (NEA) was struck down following a lawsuit by the USDOJ, we see the proposed Blue Sky agreement as avoiding a lot of the prior challenges cited inthe courts. First, we see network overlap between JetBlue and United as limited compared tothe other major US carriers (especially if considering the overlap between JetBlue at FortLauderdale and American in Miami). Second, the proposal is seeking to establish an interlineagreement as opposed to the NEA’s much more complicated and immunized code-sharing,which involved joint scheduling and revenue sharing that was ultimately struck down by thecourts. Nonetheless, we see the real value in Blue Sky stemming from the ability for eitherfrequent flier program to benefit from the expanded reach and presence of a combined JetBlueand United network (from an earning and burning perspective). Further, enhanced airportaccess at capacity constrained NYC area airports (Newark for JetBlue and JFK for United) willdrive incremental value for both carriers.JetBlue benefits from the broad reach of United’s domestic US and leading internationalnetworks, driving incremental value for the airline’s TrueBlue frequent flyer plan as wellas incremental growth for the airline’s Paisly travel product.We suspect the largest valuedriver of Blue Sky for JetBlue is the increased ability for TrueBlue members to earn and redeempoints across United’s industry-leading global network and expansive Domestic USdestinations. We note the airline had targeted a new airline partnership within its JetForwardstrategy, with total network enhancements (inclusive of a contemplated partnership) expectedto add an incremental $175mm in annual operating earnings. However, the company hashighlighted that the Blue Sky partnership with United has exceeded those initial expectations interms of impact, with likely greater quantification coming from the company in the next fewmonths. Beyond the reciprocal frequent flyer benefits and program integration, JetBlue shouldalso benefit from United moving the airline’s current non-flight related travel products onto thecompany’s Paisly platform. Paisly has been an area of focused growth for JetBlue in recentyears, representing an in-house booking platform for hotel and auto rentals, which historicallyhave been outsourced to other third-party providers by most other airlines. The companyhighlighted Paisly is today adding roughly $20-25mm of operating earnings per quarter, whichcould likely scale higher given the larger distribution United’s platform will bring to JetBlue.United is playing chess, while most of the US airline industry is busy hunting for elusiveprofitability. Blue SkyaffordsUnited greater reach in markets such as Boston, Florida andthe Caribbean, and importantly, represents an opening back to New York’s JFK airport forthe world’s largest airline (in 2027).Before even discussing the specific merits of the Blue Skypartnership for United, we must acknowledge the company’s leadership in driving strategicchange in a vastlydifferenttravel environment post-pandemic. It was clear since the unwindingof the prior Northeast Alliance (NEA) with American that JetBlue was seeking a US partner toexpand the reach andeffectivenessof the carrier’s valuable airport presence in markets such asJFK and Boston as well as the TrueBlue loyalty program. We sense apart from having lesscompetitive network overlap with JetBlue compared to other large US carriers, United was alsofast to act on an opportunity to secure greater eastern US network presence and access tocoveted slots at capacity constrained New York JFK airport. With the Blue Sky partnership,United and JetBlue will now have leading presence in cities such as Boston and Fort Lauderdaleand a large second position in Orlando; the partnership will also expand United’s presence inthe Caribbean given JetBlue’s vast network in this region. We expect longer term, United will2 FIGURE 1. Boston Airport Share of Departing Seats Moves to First Position for a Combined JetBlue and United Blue Sky PartnershipFIGURE 2. Fort Lauderdale Also Moves to First Position for a Combined JetBlue and United Blue Sky Partnership12.8%7.8%6.5%3.1%29.8%34.2%5.8%5.1%4.6%4.5%15.9%195271010205233LUVAALALGTOAJBLUFLYYAZULAC.CNAvianc