真正的矿产之争并不在地下

Restricted - External Thematic FICC ResearchZornitsa Todorova(ii)+44 (0) 20 3134 4561zornitsa.todorova@barclays.comBarclays, UKCarlos Eduardo Garcia Martinez+1 212 523 7426carlosed.garciamartinez@barclays.comBCI, USEconomicsZalina Alborova(i)+44 (0) 20 7773 2274zalina.alborova@barclays.comBarclays, UK (ii) 1See Minerals for Climate Action: The Mineral Intensity of the Clean Energy Transition.originates in Guinea. South Africa supplies 80% of chromium ores, while Kazakhstan controlsover 90% of the world’s raw beryllium.But nearly all processing happens in China.China supplies 65% of refined lithium and 80%of refined cobalt. However, no supply chain is as concentrated as that of rare earths, whereChina holds a near monopoly.By 2023, over 90% of US rare earth imports originated from China, a sharp rise from 70%in 2013.Two forces are driving thisshift:Russia’s reduced presence in the marketafterUSrestrictions and surging demand for rare earths that only China can currently meet – a clearexample of how geopolitical tensions can reinforce and deepen global dependencies.The Ukraine minerals deal marks an important step in securing access to critical minerals,with more likely to follow.The next agreements could involve the Democratic Republic ofCongo, for cobalt, and Guinea, for aluminium ores.But China, with two decades ofinvestment in mines and infrastructure across the Global South, owns 40% of the world'scobalt mines, tightening its grip on critical minerals.Building a resilient and diversified minerals supply is a key long-term challenge facingnations.Scarce minerals must be imported, and the World Bank predicts that demand willrise 500% by 2050,1potentially making rare earths and minerals such as copper, lithium andnickel more valuable than oil and gas.On a five- to ten-year horizon, rising demand forthese minerals could drive prices higher, and the market has yet to turn its full attentionto this theme.Minerals as the new geopolitical currencyChina introduced new export controls on seven key rare earth elements (REEs) in early April2025, which was widely seen as a response to recent UStariffincreases on Chinese goods. Theresulting price spikes sent ripples through global markets (Figure 1), pushing manufacturers –from AI to EVs to deference – to look for alternatives.FIGURE 1. Rare earth prices tripledafterChina's April 2025 export restrictionsSpot prices in Europe recorded on the first of each month from January 2024 to May 2025, with an additional data point onMay 22, 2025.Source: Argus Media, Barclays ResearchAI may run on code, but it is also deeply rooted in the physical world, relying on rare earths forthe magnets, sensors and cooling systems that power advanced chips and servers. Lithium,2 •••• 2See UN report.3See: the White House fact sheet.with its high energy storage capacity relative to its weight, has become virtually indispensablefor the production of electric vehicle (EV) batteries. The defence industry depends on rareearths, as well as other minerals like titanium for its unique blend of strength and lightness,making it ideal for fighter jets and missiles. Copper, with its excellent electrical conductivity, isessential for wiring and electronic components.Against this backdrop, the US-Ukraine minerals deal marked a significant step. For Ukraine, itensures a long-term US investment, supporting its sovereignty and future development. For theUS, it provides preferential access to Ukraine’s mineral resources and a chance to reduce itsdependency on China. The United Nations estimates that Ukraine holds around 5% of theworld’s rare earths and it has some of largest reserves of lithium and titanium in Europe, so thedeal taps into a resource base of growing global importance.2Yet the prospect of a surge in Ukrainian critical minerals supply remains a distant one.While attentionoftencentres on extraction – the untapped deposits of rare earths, lithium andtitanium beneath Ukraine’s soil – our research shows that the main challenge lies further alongthe value chain.The real bottleneck is not in getting minerals out of the ground, but inwhat happens next: refining. And this is where China’s dominance is unmatched.Afterseveral months of tense talks, the US and Ukraine signed an agreement3(30 April 2025) onestablishment of the Reconstruction Investment Fund in the form of a Limited Partnership (LP).The agreement aims to increase economic cooperation between Ukraine and the US, andstrengthen their strategic partnership for the reconstruction and modernization of Ukraine. Thedeal would serve as a flagship mechanism for investment into critical sectors of Ukraine'seconomy. The document defines 57 relevant natural resource assets, and while the agreementcovers minerals, as well as gold and oil and gas, the focus of our report is exclusively onminerals.We build on our Minerals and minds report, expanding the scope to include the mineralscovered in the deal.The key innovation in this analysis lies in the use