百思买（BBY）：中国采购占比从业务的一半以上降至三分之一，未来还有更多进展

2024A2025A2026E43,452.041,528.041,511.06.376.376.28--41,356.0--6.12 2027E42,458.36.9591,994.06.68 Jonathan Matuszewski, CFA * | Equity Analyst(212) 284-1737 | jmatuszewski@jefferies.comRandal J. Konik * | Equity Analyst(212) 708-2719 | rkonik@jefferies.com The Long View: Best BuyInvestment Thesis / Where We Differ•Differentiatedvalueknowledgeable sales associates, integrated online / store infrastructure,strong vendor relationships, exclusive products, and services offering•'25 and '26 poised to benefit from CE replacement cycle stemming fromwave of COVID-induced demand in 2020•Membership poised to increase existing wallet share•U.S. marketplace a source of growing profit tailwinds•Retail Media Network a source of growing GM% tailwinds•2H margin recovery is realizableBase Case,$88, +23%•Comparable sales slightly positive•GM% slightly down•Promotional levels stable•Upgrade/replacement cycle continues in '25,and '26, driving computing & tablet sales•Membership grinds higher•Market share slightly expands vs. flat 0-1%industry growth•GM: Best Buy Ads, Marketplace•C'26E EPS: $6.95; $88 Price Target based on~12.5x F’27E EPS and ~7x F’26E EBITDASustainability MattersTop Material Issue(s): 1) Labor Practices.BBY’s ability to uphold commonly accepted labor practicesand offer competitive compensation & benefits is paramount, given the size of its workforce (>100Kemployees in US & Canada).2)Energy Management.BBY’s physical footprint (>1,100 stores) along withits large supply chain renders the retailer’s energy usage & efficiency, and the company’s investments incleaner resources, critical to its environmental impact.Company Target(s): 1)Reduce carbon by 75% by '30 (vs. '09 baseline) and become carbon-neutral by '40.2)Reduce Scope 3 carbon emissions from ENERGY STAR products by 20% by '30 (vs. '17 baseline).Qs to Mgmt: 1)What are the costs associated with the worker flexibility mindset that BBY embraces?2)What is the financial impact of using more renewable resources and cleaner energy?3)What is BBYdoing to push forward circularity in consumer electronics? Is rental a viable option long term?ESG Sector Deep Dive: Multiline and Specialty Retailers & DistributorsPlease see important disclosure information on pages 4 - 9 of this report.This report is intended for Jefferies clients only. Unauthorized distribution is prohibited. propositionforconsumers: Risk/Reward - 12 Month View110100908070605020252024•Comparable sales +1-1.5% as prices stick withconsumers and unit elasticity is minimal•GM% 0-10 bps in CY25, as vendors swallowmajority of price increases and BBY price hikes•Promotional levels lessen•Sharp uptick in membership enrollment•Accelerating market share gains vs massmerchantsand home centers as robustinnovation cycle plays out•C'26E EPS: $7.20; $101 Target: ~14.0x P/EDownside Scenario,$54, -24%•Comparable sales (2%)•GM% declines 10-20 bps compression withgreater than anticipated tariff mitigation costs•Promotional levels intensify•SKUs outside of Computer & Tablets deterioratefurther•Membership levels hold flat or deteriorate•Competitive pressures from mass merchantsand home centers increase•C’26E EPS: $6.40; $54 Price Target: ~8.5x P/EmultipleCatalysts•PC vendor commentary•Industry promotional levels•Membership enrollment•White House actions on tariffs•U.S. marketplace (2025)•BBY Health optimization•Ongoing sourcing diversification dedicatedandUpside Scenario,$101, +41%offset cost headwindsmultiple 2 .Source: Company data, Jefferies estimates.Please see important disclosure information on pages 4 - 9 of this report.This report is intended for Jefferies clients only. Unauthorized distribution is prohibited. Company DescriptionBest BuyBest Buy is North America's No. 1 specialty retailer of consumer electronics. Globally, it generates nearly $43 billion in sales across more than 1,200stores in categories such as computing & mobile phones, entertainment, appliances, and others. In addition, the retailer operates a leading e-Commerceplatform and mobile application.Company Valuation/RisksBest BuyOur $88 PT is based on ~12.5x C'26E EPS and ~7x C'26E EBITDA. This is a slight premium to multiyear historical averages. Risks include maturingproduct cycles, competitive pricing pressures, tariff cost pressures, and softer consumer spending.Galaxy EntertainmentSOTP price target with properties based on mid-cycle forward EV/EBITDA. Key downside risks: weaker-than-expected GGR, Galaxy Macau failed togain share especially premium mass.Analyst Certification:I, Jonathan Matuszewski, CFA, certify that all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject security(ies)and subject company(ies). I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations orviews expressed in this research report.I, Randal J. Konik, certify that all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect my perso