万代南梦宫（7832）：重申买入：尽管存在短期担忧，但强大的知识产权势头仍在继续

FY3/25EFY3/26E1,241,513.01,272,053.91,220,520.01,280,280.0180.2179.0129.3129.3 FY3/27E1,350,908.91,344,650.0211.6152.1 Shunki Nakamura, CFA * | Equity Analyst+81(0)80 8120 7130 | snakamura@jefferies.comAtul Goyal, CFA ^ | Equity Analyst65 6551 3965 | agoyal@jefferies.com The Long View: Bandai NamcoInvestment Thesis / Where We DifferWeforecast sales from main IP by analyzing the product cycle ineach avenue (domestic toys, anime slates, and gaming). The company'sbusiness model pivoting around IP/content synergies is unique and robust.Our PT ¥5,970 is based on FY3/27e EPS of ¥239 and 25x PER (C. 15%premium to gaming Avg)Base Case,¥5970, +32%Against the backdrop of the growing popularityof animation in the global market, we expectstable growth for the company, which is involvedin games and goods based on popular animationIP.Consumption of IP in general is alsoincreasing in Japan. We expect the repeatedwrite-downs of games to decrease as a resultof the revamping of the development reviewsystem in the games business in FY3/24, whichshould further boost the company's reputation.Our PT ¥5,970 is based on FY3/27e EPS of ¥239and 25x PER (C. 15% premium to gaming Avg).Sustainability MattersBandai Namco develops home video games and produces toys, plastic models, prizes, stationery,etc. As part of the Sustainability Policy, the company is working toward net-zero CO2reducing the carbon dioxide emissions and plastic use.Company Targets:Bandai Namco is planning to reduce CO2by 2030 and achieve net-zero CO21.Gunpla's factory is working to reduce CO2to net zero through carbon offsetting and power purchase agreements (PPAs).2.BN is reducing the ratio of petroleum-derived plastics by combining polystyrene resinwith biomass materials.Qs to Mgmt:(1) Which company, in your opinion, is setting good benchmarks that Bandai Namcowould like to emulate? (2) Does the company incorporate good governance scores as part ofcompensation for managerial teams?Please see important disclosure information on pages 7 - 12 of this report.This report is intended for Jefferies clients only. Unauthorized distribution is prohibited. Upside Scenario,¥8590, +89%Upside scenarios: (1) Continued profit growthof Toys & Hobby business - the plastic modelkit business (especially Gunpla) can capitalizeon sticky user base of a mature (age-wise) fanbase. (2) Successful launch of the new titlesand secular growth of repeat title sales in theconsole gaming business. (3) Rapid growth inthe IP production business due to the company'soriginal animated films continuing to be a hit.Above could create FY3/27e EPS upside and,combined with 30x PER, could result in PT of¥8,590.emissions by 35% from the FY3/20 levelemissions by 2050.emissions from electricity consumption Downside Scenario,¥3820, -16%Downside scenarios: (1) Slowdown in growthof Gunpla fan base, possibly due to the supplyshortage.(2)Material cost hike to pressurethe overall margin. (3) Inability of the pipelinetitles to drive top-line growth or to foster therepeat title sales in the following year. (4) Nofurther increase in the popularity of IP and thepenetration of animation into the population,resulting in a transient boom. The above couldimpact EPS estimates by 20%, and with a PER of20x FY3/27e, the PT could approach ¥3,820.CatalystsConsole Pipeline: AAA title announcementsAnime slates:Mobile Suit Gundam GQuuuuuuX(TV Series, TBC)Capitalallocation:announcement emissions by Furtherbuyback2 Forecast and ValuationWe factored in temporary increase of the cost associted with the world expo exhibition in FY3/26.The cost will diminish after FY3/27.Exhibit 4 - Our Forecast Change - Bandai Namco.¥bnRevenueOperating incomeOPMNet IncomeBasic EPS (ex-Treasury)Segment RevenueToys and Hobby BusinessDigital BusinessSum of ex toys/DigitalAmusementVisual and Music (IP Production)Others/AdjustmentsEliminationsSegment OPToys and Hobby BusinessDigital BusinessSum of ex toys/DigitalAmusementVisual and Music (IP Production)Others/AdjustmentsEliminationsSegment OPMToys and Hobby BusinessDigital BusinessSum of ex toys/DigitalAmusementVisual and Music (IP Production)Others/AdjustmentsSource: Company data, Jefferies est.Exhibit 5 - Jefferies estimates vs. Consensus.¥bnRevenueOperating incomeOPMNet IncomeBasic EPS (ex-Treasury)Implied EPS (x)Source: Company data, Factset, Jefferies estimatesExhibit 6 - Bandai Namco - Valuation.Stock PriceTraded at multiples of:Revenue (EV/ Rev)EBIT (EV/EBIT)EPS (PER)FY3/27e Base Case EPSBase Case EPS Attainment %FY3/27e EPSGaming Peers PERPremium / DiscountsPER assumptionPTUpside/Downside to PxSource: Company data, Factset, Jefferies estimatesPlease see important disclosure information on pages 7 - 12 of this report.This report is intended for Jefferies clients only. Unauthorized distribution is prohibited. FY 03/25FY 03/25 ActualNewOldFY 03/26FY 03/27FY 03/28FY 03/26FY 03/271,2421,2721,3511,4281,2831,35318017921223319015%14%16%16%15%1291291521671371982012392652111,2421,2721,3511,4281,2831,3