Foot Locker, Inc. (FL) 第一季度业绩与初步发布一致；今年秋季收购完成

2025A2026E2027E7,988.07,795.07,847.07,988.07,884.48,007.91.411.371.131.421.371.06 1.361.50 Corey Tarlowe * | Equity Analyst(212) 323-7541 | ctarlowe@jefferies.comRandal J. Konik * | Equity Analyst(212) 708-2719 | rkonik@jefferies.comKylie Cohu * | Equity Analyst(212) 778-8701 | kcohu@jefferies.comMantero Moreno-Cheek * | Equity Associate(212) 778-8407 | mmorenocheek@jefferies.comCarlos Gallagher * | Equity Associate+1 (786) 535-2025 | cgallagher1@jefferies.comTy-Lynn Johnson * | Equity Associate+1 (212) 778-8339 | tjohnson2@jefferies.comMina Solujic * | Equity Associate+1 (212) 444-4298 | msolujic@jefferies.com The Long View: Foot LockerInvestment Thesis / Where We Differ•We remain cautious as FL works to diversify its product offering andindustry-wide footwear wholesale headwinds persist•In the NT, we are growing cautious, as consumers continue to feel pressureon their wallets and be more selective in purchasing decisions•Ownership stake in GOAT supports valuation•However, DKS recently announced that it plans to purchase FL for $24/shareBase Case,$24, +0%•DKS acquires FL for $24 in 2H 2025•FY’27 EPS: $1.50; $24 PT based on a mix of~16x P/E and ~6x EV/EBITDA.Sustainability MattersTop material issue(s): 1)Energy Management:As a leader in the footwear retail industry, we believe FL’songoing energy conservation efforts are a key focus for the company moving forward.Company Target(s): 1)FL has set a goal to reduce its energy consumption in its HQ by 35% by 20502)FLhas spent >$13M since 2011 on converting >1,600 locations in North America to LED lighting. Additionally,100% of the company’s stores in Asia use LED lighting3)The company upgraded >50 HVAC units to highefficiency in 20194)>60% of energy purchased across Europe is with green power contractsQs to mgmt: 1)What plans do you have in place to lift communities that you are in?2)What do you thinkyour customers and employees care most about from an ESG perspective and how are you respondingto that?3)How do you expect this shift in energy usage to affect the company’s revenue and marginperformance?Multiline and Specialty Retailers & Distributors ESG Integration RefreshPlease see important disclosure information on pages 4 - 10 of this report.This report is intended for Jefferies clients only. Unauthorized distribution is prohibited. Upside Scenario,$30, +26%•Another buyer outbids DKS and acquires FL for$30•FY’27 EPS: $1.65; $30 PT based on a mix of~16x P/E and ~6x EV/EBITDA. Risk/Reward - 12 Month View4035302520151020252024Downside Scenario,$15, -37%•DKS and FL deal falls through•Growth initiatives do not drive expectedprofitability contributions•Apparel pressure as athleisure falls out of favor•Challenged performance and integration ofWSS/Atmos•Supply chain challenges limit sales, hit margins•Non-Nike headwinds drive larger-than-expecteddeclines•Vendors going direct causes further slowdownof sales•FY’27 EPS: $1.35; Target Multiple: ~11x; PriceTarget: $15.Catalysts•Better-than-expectedinnovation and traction in smaller brands•Accretion from acquisitions of WSS/atmos•Initiatives to reinvigorate the fleet, drive loyaltygain stronger traction•FLX loyalty program bringing new customers•Raising the dividend to historical levels•Monetization of GOAT stake•Closing of Footaction allowing for accelerationof women's/kids•Additional repurchases/dividend increase salesonproduct2 .D&AD&AD&AD&ASource: Company data, Jefferies estimatesPlease see important disclosure information on pages 4 - 10 of this report.This report is intended for Jefferies clients only. Unauthorized distribution is prohibited. Company DescriptionFoot LockerFoot Locker, Inc is a leading global retailer of branded athletic footwear, apparel, and accessories for men, women and kids. By geography, the UnitedStates accounts for ~70% of the company’s sales, while its largest international markets are Italy, Germany, Canada and France. The flagship FootLocker brand is the company’s biggest but the portfolio of over 3,100 stores also includes other banners: Ladies Foot Locker, Kids Foot Locker,Champs Sports, Footaction, and Runners Point Group as well as the Eastbay e-commerce platform. Nike, its largest vendor, accounts for ~66% oftotal purchases.Company Valuation/RisksFoot LockerOur $24PT is based on ~16x P/E and ~6x EV/EBITDA applied to our FY'27 estimates. Risks include share losses, even higher promos, and channel shift.Dick's Sporting Goods, Inc.Our $186 PT is based on ~12.1x P/E and ~7.5x EV/EBITDA on our CY'26 estimates, a premium to direct sporting goods & athletic peers. UpsideRisks: Competitive backdrop eases and sports participation sharply accelerates and NKE allocations improve. Downside Risks: Competitive backdropintensifies and sports participation sharply decelerates and NKE allocations deteriorate.NikeOur $115 price target is based on ~33x P/E on our FY'27 estimate. Risks include cost inflation, waning product cycle, and FX headwinds.Analyst Certification:I, Corey Tarlowe, certify tha