安捷伦科技（A）：乐观表现：企业对企业（B2B）业务令人鼓舞且妥善应对关税问题

2024A2025E2026E6,510.06,781.57,186.45.2x5.0x5.295.555.285.54 4.7x6.056.00 Tycho Peterson * | Equity Analyst+1 (212) 738-5583 | tpeterson2@jefferies.comMatthew Stanton * | Equity Analyst(615) 963-8397 | mstanton@jefferies.comJack Melick, CPA * | Equity Associate+1 (617) 345-8671 | jmelick@jefferies.comPriya Patel * | Equity Associate+1 (332) 204-0140 | ppatel5@jefferies.comNoah Kava * | Equity Associate+1 (212) 323-3939 | nkava@jefferies.comLauren Timmins, Ph.D. * | Equity Associate+1 (929) 237-2038 (mobile) | ltimmins@jefferies.com The Long View: Agilent TechnologiesInvestment Thesis / Where We DifferWhile Agilent has done an impressive job delivering above-average core rev& EPS growth in recent years, near-term uncertainty in key end markets(biopharma), geographies (China), & business units (NASD) leaves us cautiouson the company's ability to outperform against the current setup. We see lessupside for multiple to re-rate higher until visibility into return to normal growthin '25 and beyond returns.Base Case,$120, +8%•FY25 revs: +3% organic growth•FY26 revs: ~6% organic growth•~27% OPM in FY25 / ~35% incremental goingforward•FY25E EPS: $5.54•FY26E EPS: $6.00•Price Target: $120 implies ~17x FY25E EBITDASustainability MattersTop Material Issue(s): 1) Supply chain management.Agilent has invested in expanded NASD capacityand committed to automation and engineering enhancements, which include water reclamation, solarenergy, and solvent waste capturing and recycling to promote a more sustainable supply chain.2)Productquality & safetyare particularly important when moving from more air to sea shipping. Agilent hasinvested in vacuum seal and moisture barrier bags to maintain product quality in transit.Company Target(s): 1)Net-zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2050. By 2030, reduce Scope 1 and 2emissions by 50% (vs. 2019 levels).2)Strategically invest in renewable energy — purchased goods andservices, transportation, etc.Questions to Management:1)What investments are you making to achieve net-zero GHG emissions, andhow is your spend in this area going to trend in the next 5 years?2)Have longer shipping lead times forproducts transported by sea led to any supply chain issues, or is it mostly mitigated through buffer stock?Please see important disclosure information on pages 4 - 9 of this report.This report is intended for Jefferies clients only. Unauthorized distribution is prohibited. Upside Scenario,$145, +31%•FY25 revs: +5% organic growth•FY26 revs: +8% organic•~500bps OPM expansion through 2034•More China stimulus in '25/'26•Instrument rebound raises '25 numbers•NASD returns to +LDD growth•Price Target: $145 = ~20x FY25E EBITDA Risk/Reward - 12 Month View160150140130120110100908020252024Downside Scenario,$85, -23%•FY25 revs: +1% organic growth•FY26 revs: +4% organic•~100bps OPM expansion through 2024•No follow-on rounds of China stimulus•NASD growth algo challenged (lower $1B byCDMO target)•Price Target: $85 = ~12x FY25E EBITDACatalystsNew NASD capacity expansion coming online,ramp of commercial programs, and success oflater stage Phase 3sDurable growth inflection in instruments/LSAG asreplacement cycle kicks inChina stimulus (second wave, likely to hit in 2H25).M&A activity 2 Agilent Technologies (A)Equity ResearchMay 28, 20253 Company DescriptionAgilent TechnologiesAgilent is a leading manufacturer of instruments, software, and consumables serving the life sciences, diagnostics, and applied chemical markets.Company Valuation/RisksAgilent TechnologiesOur $120 PT represents a 10-year horizon in our DCF model and implies ~21x FY25E EPS and EV of ~17x EBITDA. Downside Risks: longer instrumentcycle, missed M&A opportunities, prolonged China recovery. Upside Risks: margins surprised to upside on cost-outs, larger buyback, NASD demandon commercial side snaps back.Analyst Certification:I, Tycho Peterson, certify that all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject security(ies) and subjectcompany(ies). I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressedin this research report.I, Matthew Stanton, certify that all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject security(ies) and subjectcompany(ies). I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressedin this research report.I, Jack Melick, CPA, certify that all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject security(ies) and subjectcompany(ies). I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressedin this research report.I, Priya Patel, certify that all of the views expressed in this research report accurately r