康明斯印度有限公司：销售指引良好；定价担忧犹存

-FY2261,4048,80214.37,81628.223.023.716.9112.418.198.0 2025A2026E-120,961.08.0x6.9x1.73%1.51%(49.1)%(50.7)%FY23FY24FY2577,44489,586103,394120,35612,42617,01420,68023,15416.019.020.011,40616,03719,04922,86741.157.968.745.940.618.826.935.837.222.327.828.977.054.846.116.414.312.569.050.140.8 2027E138,575.05.9x1.68%(55.3)%FY26EFY27E140,24127,31219.219.526,66182.596.220.016.638.538.530.330.738.433.010.99.436.230.3 Lavina Quadros * | Equity Analyst91 22 4224 6116 | lquadros@jefferies.comShirom Kapur * | Equity Associate+91 22 4224 6141 | skapur1@jefferies.comRecent researchCummins:Pricing to Take One-TwoQuarters to StabiliseKey Takeaways From Industrial MeetingsIndustrials: Valuations vs previous cycles:Quick glanceIndustrials:L&T,BHEL drive order flowgrowthBudgetFY26–Capex Lower Priority,Though Decent Growth2025Outlook:Budget to be CloselyWatchedCapex Deep Dive: Piecing It Together The Long View: Cummins India LimitedInvestment Thesis / Where We Differ•CPCB implementation will impact margins.•Competitive factors will cap product pricing upside.Base Case,INR2405, -19%•Cummins is a leader with 50%+ market sharein the technology-intensive mid- and high-Horsepower (HP) gensets.•Margins have limited upside as CPCBimplementation impacts the same apart fromcompetitive pricing pressure.•FY27E EPS:Rs96.2 Target Multiple:25xFY27E; Price Target Rs2,405.Sustainability MattersTop Material Issues: 1) Materials Sourcing -The focus on lowering the carbon content in the supplychain and use of recycled materials is being discussed. Cummins' waste recycling rate stood at99.996% in FY22.2) Energy Management -Cummins' installed solar PV plant of 1,800 kWp in FY22to increase utilisation of renewable energy.3) Employee Health & Safety -Industrial operations canbe inherently dangerous, and Cummins has made people and health and safety priorities, often partof the ESG strategy and targets.Company Targets:1) Generate 25% less waste in facilities and operations as a percentage of revenue.2) Create a circular lifecycle plan for every part to use less, use better, use again. 3) Focus to reduceinjury rate among labors and report zero fatalities.Qs to Mgmt:1) What are your commitments around making environment green? 2) What would be themargin improvement post using sustainable inputs? 3) Any audits being undertaken at manufacturingfacilities/campuses to ensure lower energy utilisation?ESG Sector Integration: India Cap GoodsPlease see important disclosure information on pages 8 - 13 of this report.This report is intended for Jefferies clients only. Unauthorized distribution is prohibited. Risk/Reward - 12 Month View4500400035003000250020001500Upside Scenario,INR4025, +35%•Early recovery in the domestic investmentcycle will lead to earnings surprise as demandwill recover faster than expected.•Favorable movement in product mix couldlead to margin improvement.•Higher exports to parent.•FY27E EPS: Rs115 Target Multiple: 35x; PriceTarget Rs4,025. 20252024Downside Scenario,INR2000, -33%•Prolonged delay in the return of theinvestment cycle leading to a delay in gensetdemand pickup in the domestic market.•Further slowdown in exports.•Power deficit levels in India remaining at lowerlevels.•FY27E EPS: Rs80 Target Multiple: 25x; PriceTarget Rs2,000.Catalysts•Company maintaining leadership marketshare•Domestic economic environment improvingsharply in next 12-18 months 2 Exhibit 3 - 4QFY25 EBITDA missed estimates due to miss on topline.(Rs mn)4Q FY24Sales22,685EBITDA4,366Margin (%)Adj. PAT4,988Source: Company data, Jefferies estimatesExhibit 4 - Quarterly Income Statement.(Rs mn)1QFY24SalesExpenditureEBITDAEBITDA margin (%)Other incomeInterestDepreciationExtraordinary itemsPBTTaxTax rate %Reported PATAdjusted PATSource: Company data, JefferiesExhibit 5 - Quarterly Expenditure Breakup.(Rs mn)1QFY24Raw materials% of salesStaff cost% of salesOther expenses% of salesTotalSource: Compay data, JefferiesExhibit 6 - Segment Sales.(Rs mn)1QFY24Power% of salesIndustrial% of salesDistribution% of salesExports% of salesOverallSource: Company data, JefferiesPlease see important disclosure information on pages 8 - 13 of this report.This report is intended for Jefferies clients only. Unauthorized distribution is prohibited. Exhibit 7 - FY14-18 margins dropped 311 bps post CPCB II upgrade.18.217.526.9-30.08101214161820FY13FY14Source: Company data, Jefferies estimatesExhibit 8 - 4QFY25 sales were driven by Industrials, Distribution and Exports.(100)(50)-501001502004QFY181QFY192QFY19Source: Company data, JefferiesExhibit 9 - 4QFY25 gross margins were up 139 bps YoY on cost optimization efforts, product mix and pricing.33.435.736.520.025.030.035.040.045.050.04QFY181QFY192QFY19Source: Company data, JefferiesExhibit 10 - Gross margin improvement aided EBITDA margin rise of 52 bps YoY.12,05812,96512.114.1-10,00020,00030,00040,0004QFY181QFY19Source: Company data, JefferiesPlease see important disclosure information on pages 8 - 13 of this report.This report is intended