恩诺维斯（ENOV）：2025年良好开局，专注于执行，看好2025年及以后；目标价60美元，买入

2024A2025E2,107.62,232.82.402.833.022.352.783.0411.5x10.8x 2026E2,371.73.383.449.6x Young Li * | Equity Analyst+1 (212) 778-8671 | young.li@jefferies.comMatthew Taylor, CFA * | Equity Analyst1 (212) 778-8721 | matt.taylor@jefferies.comMichael Sarcone, CFA * | Equity Analyst1 (212) 778-8606 | msarcone@jefferies.comMichael Toomey, CFA * | Equity Analyst+1 (212) 708-2630 | mtoomey2@jefferies.comMatthew Aspro * | Equity Associate+1 (212) 323-3907 | maspro@jefferies.com The Long View: EnovisInvestment Thesis / Where We DifferThe ortho and bracing/rehab markets have continued to stay elevated vspre-COVID levels driven by favorable demographics, better pricing, and betteroutcomes. Within this framework, ENOV is poised to gain share given itsstrong track record of above market growth over the past 10+ years, high-growth acquisitions, and solid execution. We see continued momentum forRecon backed by our proprietary surveys and checks, and we are excited aboutnew products and cross-selling opportunities. We forecast 6%+ (HSD) organicgrowth profile through 2027E+ and expect a continuous cadence of tuck-inacquisitions.Base Case,$60, +84%Our base case PT of $60 is based off 11.5x our2026E EBITDA.This assumes ENOV grows its top line ~6% CAGRin 24-27E.We forecast GM ~60% and EBITDA margin of~17%.The base case assumes LSD-MSD growth in P&Rand HSD-LDD growth in Recon.Sustainability MattersTop Material Issue(s):1)Supply Chain Mgmt: ENOV’s supplier quality assurance program includesan intensive qualification process that includes ENOV personnel visiting supplier sites. After supplierselection and qualification, ongoing relationships are managed via scorecards. Supplier selection is basedon the ability to reduce cost, lead times, and freight in the supply chain. Suppliers also are expected toobey laws that provide a safe and healthy workplace for their employees and protect the environment.Its Supplier Code of Conduct addresses, among other things, compliance with law, labor and humanrights (including child labor and forced labor) and the environment.2)Employee Engagement, Diversity& Inclusion:ENOV expanded its diversity, equity and inclusion process. A comprehensive assessment ofthe programs was completed and new initiatives were implemented as a result.Company target(s):NA.Qs for Mgmt.1)How do you ensure vendors/suppliers continue to provide high-quality products/components? 2) Are there specific DE&I targets you can set for the intermediate and long term?Link to ESG MedTech Framework.Please see important disclosure information on pages 19 - 25 of this report.This report is intended for Jefferies clients only. Unauthorized distribution is prohibited. Upside Scenario,$70, +115%Our upside scenario PT of $70 is based off 12x our2026E upside EBITDA.This assumes ENOV grows its top line ~7% CAGRin 24-27E.Weforecast GM~60.5%and EBITDA margin~17.5%.The upside case assumes MSD growth in P&R andLDD growth in Recon. Downside Scenario,$30, -8%Our downside scenario PT of $30 is based off 8xour 2026E downside EBITDA.This assumes ENOV grows its top line ~4% CAGRin 24-27E.We forecast ~59% GM and EBITDA margin ~16%.The downside case assumes LSD growth in P&Rand HSD growth in Recon.Catalysts1) US H+K share gains driven by differentiatedportfolio.2) OUS expansion driven by Lima, Mathys, andcross-selling of portfolio.3) Macro pressures on supply chain and hospitalstaffing easing.4) Acquisitions of tech, products, and scale.5) Empowr Revision Knee scaling.6) Arvis full launch.7) F&A growing multiple market rates. 2 Orderly CEO TransitionThe CEO retirement and hiring announcement and process was well-planned and executed. MattTrerotola had been with ENOV for 10 years, and had mentioned his retirement plans to the BoD prior.The Board ran a process and focused on growth-oriented leaders and found Damien McDonald, whochecked a lot of boxes for ENOV, given his previous CEO experience at LIVN, DHR background andexperience, familiarity with business systems to drive continuous improvements, and M&A.Ortho/Recon Market Growth Remaining SolidUS Recon 1Q growth was strong to start off the year for Jan and Feb, and softened in March, but isnow back up in April. OUS Recon picked up in March to partially offset the US March softness. 2Qstarted off with stable Recon procedure growth given holidays impact with surgeons taking morevacation time post COVID.ENOV expects the Recon market to be solid/stable for the rest of year.ENOV doesn’t depend on a strong Recon market to grow well, with ~50% of Recon beingExtremities, which grows faster than large joints, thereforeENOV has a higher Recon WAMGR vsother large ortho companies. Higher utilization post COVIDwithin ortho is driven by favorablemacro demographics, aging population who cares more about their health and mobility, better techenabling better outcomes and faster recovery, more WFH and less need to take vacation days forrecovery. 2019 CAGR is now back to normalized, but there’s still some OUS backlogs