再生元就中国GLP-1/GIP激动剂达成交易，P2 COURAGE数据引发更多疑问而非答案

Restricted - External First LookNOVOb.CO/NOVOB DCEuropean Pharmaceuticals& Life SciencesPrice TargetPrice (28-May-25)Potential Upside/DownsideSource: Bloomberg, Barclays ResearchROG.S/ROG SWEuropean Pharmaceuticals& Life SciencesPrice TargetPrice (30-May-25)Potential Upside/DownsideSource: Bloomberg, Barclays ResearchEuropean Pharmaceuticals & LifeSciencesEmily Field, CFA+44 (0)20 7773 6263emily.field@barclays.comBarclays, UKShirley Chen, PhD+44 (0)20 7773 2109shirley.chen@barclays.comBarclays, UKCharles Pitman-King, CFA+44 (0)20 3134 6023charles.pitman-king@barclays.comBarclays, UKYihan Li, PhD+44 (0)20 3555 3563yihan.li@barclays.comBarclays, UKSidhartha Modi+91 (0)22 6175 1326sidhartha.modi@barclays.comBarclays, UKAnurag Surendra Sharma+91 (0)22 6175 4548anuragsu.sharma@barclays.comBarclays, UK OVERWEIGHTNEUTRALDKK 700.00DKK 453.65+54.3%EQUAL WEIGHTNEUTRALCHF 275.00CHF 265.50+3.6% Key takes from P2 COURAGE interim results (Fig 1): Low-dose combo was well toleratedbut did little on incremental weight loss (though we acknowledge its better musclepreservation vs. sema), while triplet looks not viable from tolerability/safety perspective.•Semaglutideled to 10.4% weight loss at week 26, where ~34% were from lean mass loss•(consistent vs. prior data).•Lower-dose comboshowed generally comparable safety profile and body weight loss (9.9%)•vs. sema (10.4%), but better preserved muscles (17% loss).•Higher dose comboshowed slightly higher weight loss at 11.3% (including 17% muscle loss•similar to lower dose), but there were 10.6% TEAE-induced discontinuation (vs. 4.6% forsema).•Tripletdemonstrated the most pronouncedeffect,with 13% weight loss (including only 7%•muscle loss), but we see tolerability issues with 28% discontinuations and 2 deaths (1undetermined, 1 due to cardiacFIGURE 1. REGN COURAGE dataSource: REGN company data2 Analyst(s) Certification(s):We, Emily Field, CFA, Charles Pitman-King, CFA and Shirley Chen, PhD, hereby certify (1) that the views expressed in this research report accuratelyreflect our personal views about any or all of the subject securities or issuers referred to in this research report and (2) no part of our compensationwas, is or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this research report.Important Disclosures:Barclays Research is produced by the Investment Bank of Barclays Bank PLC and itsaffiliates(collectively and each individually, "Barclays"). Allauthors contributing to this research report are Research Analysts unless otherwise indicated. The publication date at the top of the report reflects thelocal time where the report was produced and maydifferfrom the release date provided in GMT.Availability of Disclosures:Where any companies are the subject of this research report, for current important disclosures regarding those companies please refer to https://publicresearch.barclays.com or alternatively send a written request to: Barclays Research Compliance, 745 Seventh Avenue, 13th Floor, New York, NY10019 or call +1-212-526-1072.The analysts responsible for preparing this research report have received compensation based upon various factors including the firm's total revenues,a portion of which is generated by investment banking activities, the profitability and revenues of the Markets business and the potential interest of thefirm's investing clients in research with respect to the asset class covered by the analyst.Research analysts employed outside the US byaffiliatesof Barclays Capital Inc. are not registered/qualified as research analysts with FINRA. Such non-US research analysts may not be associated persons of Barclays Capital Inc., which is a FINRA member, and therefore may not be subject to FINRA Rule2241 restrictions on communications with a subject company, public appearances and trading securities held by a research analyst’s account.Analysts regularly conduct site visits to view the material operations of covered companies, but Barclays policy prohibits them from accepting paymentor reimbursement by any covered company of their travel expenses for such visits.Barclays Research Department produces various types of research including, but not limited to, fundamental analysis, equity-linked analysis,quantitative analysis, and trade ideas. Recommendations contained in one type of Barclays Research maydifferfrom those contained in other types ofBarclays Research, whether as a result ofdifferingtime horizons, methodologies, or otherwise.In order to access Barclays Statement regarding Research Dissemination Policies and Procedures, please refer to https://publicresearch.barclays.com/S/RD.htm. In order to access Barclays Research Conflict Management Policy Statement, please refer to: https://publicresearch.barclays.com/S/CM.htm.Primary Stocks (Ticker, Date, Price)Novo Nordisk(NOVOb.CO, 28-May-2025, DKK 453.65), Overweight/Neutral, CE/JRoche(ROG.S, 30-May-2025, CHF 265.50), Equal Weight/Neutral, A/D/E/J/K/L/M/NUnless o