住房数据综述-情况更糟

Restricted - External U.S. Homebuilding & Building ProductsPOSITIVEU.S. Homebuilding & BuildingProductsMatthew Bouley+1 212 526 9029matthew.bouley@barclays.comBCI, USElizabeth Langan+1 212 526 5960elizabeth.langan@barclays.comBCI, USAnika Dholakia+1 212 526 8780anika.dholakia@barclays.comBCI, USElaine Ku+1 212 526 7529elaine.ku@barclays.comBCI, US FIGURE 1. New Home Sales +11% m/m in Apriltended to underperform following cycle-turns in housing starts from peak. As we move intoJune, we suspect backwards-looking housing data may continue to reflect a weakened springselling season and further reveal signs of potential pricing and incentive pressure, challengingbuilders' largely 2H weighted guides.New Home Sales +11% m/m (SA) as Builders Utilize Incentives to DriveDemandThe New Home Sales data for April (released 23 May 2025) rose +11% m/m SAAR and +5% y/yNSA, which we think likely reflects builders leaning into incentives to drive Apriltraffic(i.e. DHIand TOL both spoke to incentives driving higher sales pace into April). We think this numbercould still be revised lower given builder order commentary broadly suggest April demand wasstill choppy, and we always caution the smaller sample size for the NHS data leads to a verywide 90-percent confidence interval (this month's +11% came with a +-13.5% interval), withresulting revisions likely.New Homes Supply Is Also Rising, Similar to 2005 Levels Just Before theHousing Bubble PoppedThe supply of new homes for sale in April (seasonally adjusted) is at the highest level sinceNovember 2005, when we were just on the cusp of the housing collapse. New home months'supply is now at 8.1 months, and we think inventory levels continuing to hover in this rangeindicates builders built too much inventory in the last year. We expect these elevated levels ofinventory could drive pricing declines and persistent incentive pressure for homebuilders asthey work through this inventory (we think there is risk incentives move higher into the summerand 2H).We show New Home inventory immediately below, but also highlight later in thisnote that Existing Home inventory is rising quickly in key builder markets. 2 Source: U.S. Census2 June 2025 FIGURE 2. Supply of New Homes for Sale At the Highest Level Since November 2005Source: U.S. CensusFIGURE 3. This Puts the New Home Months Supply Near Prior Peaks at 8.1 months6.10.02.04.06.08.010.012.014.0Jan-00Sep-00May-01Jan-02Sep-02May-03Jan-04Sep-04May-05Jan-06Sep-06May-07Jan-08Sep-08May-09Jan-10Sep-10May-11Jan-12Sep-12May-13Jan-14New SF Month's Supply (NSA)Source: Barclays Research, U.S. CensusTaking a closer look at new home inventory by type, the recent rise looks to be driven bycompletednew home inventory, which we think remains a risk to price and incentives as wemove beyond the Spring Selling Season, with builders looking to move this inventory.2 June 2025 FIGURE 4. New Home Inventory by Type - On a historical view, new home inventories remain elevated,suggesting there is an increased risk that builders could continue pulling back on starts as weprogress through the year, with an uptick in completed homes also supporting slowed permits.Source: Barclays Research, U.S. CensusFIGURE 5. Completed New Home Inventory Still On the Rise020406080100120140160180200Nov-70Jun-72Jan-74Aug-75Mar-77Oct-78May-80Dec-81Jul-83Feb-85Sep-86Apr-88Nov-89Jun-91Jan-93Aug-94Mar-96Oct-97May-99Dec-00Jul-02Feb-04Sep-05Apr-07Nov-08Jun-10Jan-12Aug-13Mar-15Oct-16May-18Dec-19Jul-21Feb-23Sep-24Completed NewHomes (000s)Source: Barclays Research, U.S. CensusSF Housing Starts Were -2% M/M in April, Permits -5% M/MWe focus most on single-family building permits as the most accurate and leadingdatapoint within total starts data.SF permits for April were -5% m/m at a SAAR of 923kafterMarch's -2% m/m at a SAAR of 972k. YoY, unadjusted SF permits were -6% in April vs -2% inMarch. SF starts were -2% m/m at a SAAR of 927k following -14% m/m in March. YoY, unadjustedSF starts were -12% vs -10% last month.We think that slowing m/m data since February displays what we think is an appropriatemoderation of starts givensofterhousing demand, especially as builders work throughexisting elevated inventory.On this note, we sense some investors have been debatingwhether slowing housing starts could be a sign of more industry discipline and developmenttowards a more attractive entry point for builder stocks. We argue that downside risk stillpersists for builders given continued demand weakness, elevated incentives at the peak of thespring selling season, and rising inventory in several markets that could pressure pricing.Thus,we think slowed starts are not enough of a reason to be more positive on builders, asdownward revisions are likely still to come in our view, and inventories still remainelevated. Indeed starts may need to fall even further (<900k) to even consider a decline innew home inventories as sales likely weaken.We highlight that typically following a peak in4 FIGURE 6. Single-F