全球系统重要性银行推动资产负债表增长

Restricted - External Samuel Earl+ 1 212 526 5426samuel.earl@barclays.comBCI, USAnshul Pradhan+1 212 412 3681anshul.pradhan@barclays.comBCI, USDemi Hu+1 212 526 7398demi.hu@barclays.comBCI, US The details of the aggregate balance sheet show that much of the rise in assets came from fedfunds sold and reverse repo books, which increased by $404bn on the quarter (Figure 2).Securities were also $275bn higher, largely in trading accounts. Trading assets, which excludesecurities, were higher (+$178bn ), as were other assets (+$119bn). The rise in fed funds andrepo books more thanoffsetthe $255bn decline in Q4 when banks managed repo books lowerfor year-end regulatory snapshot purposes.The increase in assets was funded on the liability side largely by repos, which rose by $471bn,which roughly matched the rise in fed funds sold/reverse repos on the asset side. Outside ofexpanded repo books, banks also had a $296bn increase in deposits. Deposits rose the most atthe top four banks ($136bn), followed by the small banks ($90bn) and the other GSIBs ($73bn).Aggregate net interest margins rose at the other GSIBs, small, and foreign banks. At the sametime, they fell at the top four and medium banks (Figure 9). Compared with the same quarter ayear ago, NIMs increased the most for the medium and small banks but were also higher in theother bank categories, except for the top four banks, where they declined.Year-on-year growth in total banking sector assets was $883bn (Figure 3). The top four banksincreased assets by $473bn, while other GSIBs were up by $180bn. Small and foreign banksgrew $187bn and $46bn, respectively, while medium banks declined $3bn.About 40% of thebalance sheet expansion came from securities, with the GSIBs expanding their holdings byabout $375bn in total. Loans were also up notably y/y, rising by $313bn. Reverse repo andfed funds sold were up $259bn y/y.In terms of liabilities, deposits (+$386bn) and repos (+$360bn) supported most of the balance sheet expansion.We discuss the securities portfolios in detail below. 2 Source: SNL Financial, Barclays ResearchFIGURE 6. Loans (% of assets)35%17%51%34%18%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%Top FourOther GSIBMedium2024Q12024Q22024Q3Source: SNL Financial, Barclays ResearchFIGURE 8. Cash and equivalents (% of assets)14%23%10%10%20%0%5%10%15%20%25%Top FourOther GSIBMedium2024Q12024Q22024Q3Includes (non-)interest bearing balances, currency, fed funds sold, and reverserepos; excludes repos and fed funds purchases.Source: SNL Financial, Barclays Research2 June 2025 Source: SNL Financial, Barclays Research Banks' securities purchases in Q1In Q1, banks' total securities portfolios rose by $275bn across held-to-maturity (HTM), available-for-sale (AFS), and trading accounts (Figure 11). However, the entirety of the increase was from a$276bn rise in trading books, mostly at the GSIB banks. Within products, most of the rise was inother securities ($177bn), followed by agency PTs ($85bn). UST holdings fell $13bn, largely on areduction in HTM, while AFS was up a touch. Excluding trading books, other GSIBs added themost at $24bn, while the top four reduced holdings the most at -$21bn.HTM and AFS portfolio holdings were mixed, with HTM portfolios down $60bn and AFSportfolios up by the same amount. Banks have beenshiftingsecurities out of HTM into AFS, asHTM has fallen out of favor, likely as a result of increased scrutiny of unrealized losses followingthe failure of SVB. From a year ago, HTM holdings are $210bn lower, while AFS is higher by$324bn. Figure 10 shows that 30% of banks' securities portfolios is HTM (vs. 35% a year ago) and42% is AFS (vs. 40% a year ago). 6 FIGURE 13. Agency pass-through holdings and changes in holdings by holding type, q/q and y/y (Q1 2025, $bn)Levels and changes q/q, y/yHTM + AFSTotal holdings% of securitiesholdingsQ1 25q/qy/yQ1 2536%1,023-15-930223%14162012044%365-5-16133%334932720%450-16133%1,908-526491Agency pass-throughs: Holdings roseBanks' agency pass-through holdings rose $85bn in Q1,afterhaving fallen by $42bn inQ4 (Figure 13). The increase was mainly driven by trading books, which rose a combined $90bnquarter-over-quarter, mostly at the GSIBs. AFS portfolios also expanded by $10bn while HTMholdings declined $15bn, mostly at the top four banks. Year-over-year, agency PT holdings rose$119bn, with a $91bn increase AFS and a $93bn increase in trading books partiallyoffsetby a$65bn decline in HTM.Figure 14 shows a breakdown of agency PTs held as HTM and AFS into GNMA and conventionalPTs (the breakdown is not available in trading portfolios). Within AFS/HTM holdings of agencyPTs, Ginnies (which count as Level 1 for HQLA purposes) rose $11bn, while conventional PTholdings (which do not count as Level 1) fell $16bn. Banks' favoring Ginnies is also evident in theyear-on-year numbers, where they added $71bn while reducing conventional holdings by$45bn. Tradingq/qy/y57551927111112890938 FIGURE 15. US Treasury holdings and changes in holdings by hold