第23周图表-原油库存与布伦特原油价格差异正在扩大

-20%-15%-10%-5%0%5%10%15%20%-100%06Nov-07May-09Nov-10May-12Nov-13May-15Nov-16May-18Nov-19May-21Nov-22May-24BrentOECD crude stock (RHS)OECD commercial stock (RHS)Restricted - External European Integrated EnergyPOSITIVEEuropean Integrated EnergyLydia Rainforth, CFA+44 (0)20 3134 6669lydia.rainforth@barclays.comBarclays, UKMatthew Cooper+44 (0)20 3555 6525matthew.cooper@barclays.comBarclays, UKNaisheng Cui, CFA+44 (0)20 7773 0486naisheng.cui@barclays.comBarclays, UKRamachandra Kamath+91 (0)22 61752308ramchandra.kamath@barclays.comBarclays, UKThea Lacroix+44 (0)20 3555 3088thea.lacroix@barclays.comBarclays, UK Refining margins and product cracksFIGURE 3. Diesel crack spread, $/bl010203040506014710 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 5210 Year Range2025202410 Year avgWeekSource: Bloomberg, Barclays ResearchFIGURE 5. Jet fuel crack spread, $/bl710 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 52202410 Year avg-101030507014710 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 5210 Year Range2025202410 Year avgWeekSource: Bloomberg, Barclays ResearchDemand is the key variable but is hard to assess. So far, data from Saudi Aramco and Joint OilData Initiative (JODI) have showed strong demand in 1Q and we see this trend continuing, as3Q is seasonally a strong quarter in terms of oil demand, with demand typically rising2-3mb/d between 1Q and 3Q each year –oftendependent on how warm or cold the winterwas. This is important when considering OPEC+ motivations for increasing production intosummer.2 FIGURE 2. Gasoline crack spread, $/blSource: Bloomberg, Barclays ResearchFIGURE 4. Naphtha crack spread, $/bl-30-20-1001020301410 Year Range2025WeekSource: Bloomberg, Barclays Research2 June 2025 Source: Bloomberg, Barclays ResearchFIGURE 8. Implied NWE refining margin, $/bl-1001020301471013 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 5210 Year Range2025WeekSource: Bloomberg, Barclays ResearchFIGURE 10. US Gulf gasoline WTI crack, $/bl-10010203040506014710 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 5210 Year Range2025WeekSource: Bloomberg, Barclays Research, EIA2 June 2025 Source: Bloomberg, Barclays ResearchFIGURE 14. Global crude oil floating storage, mbl0501001502002501471013 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 52Week7 year range7 Year avgSource: Bloomberg, Barclays ResearchFIGURE 16. Brent vs. refining margin020406080100120140Jun-12Jun-13Jun-14Jun-15Jun-16Jun-17Brent (LHS)Source: Bloomberg, Barclays Research2 June 2025 Source: Bloomberg, Barclays Research2 June 2025 US inventories and productionFIGURE 20. US total inventories, mblSource: EIA, Bloomberg, Barclays ResearchFIGURE 22. US gasoline inventories, mbl2002202402601471013 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 52Week7 year range20252024Source: EIA, Bloomberg, Barclays Research2 June 2025 Product supplyFIGURE 26. Gasoline supplied in the US, mboed7891014710 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 52Week5-year RangeSource: Bloomberg, Barclays Research2 June 2025 Relative price performanceFIGURE 28. SXEP vs. SXXPSource: Bloomberg, Barclays ResearchFIGURE 30. bp vs. SXEP80859095100105May24Jun24Jul24Aug24Sep24Oct24Nov24Dec24Jan25Feb25%Source: Bloomberg, Barclays Research2 June 2025 FIGURE 32. TTE vs. SXEPSource: Bloomberg, Barclays ResearchContinued...FIGURE 34. REP vs. SXEP80859095100105May24Jun24Jul24Aug24%Source: Bloomberg, Barclays Research2 June 2025 Continued....FIGURE 40. European IntegratedsSource: Bloomberg, Barclays ResearchFIGURE 41. Middle East stocks vs ADX Index859095100105110115120125130135140145150May 24Jun 24 Jul 24 Aug 24 Sep 24 Oct 24 Nov 24 Dec 24 Jan 25 Feb 25 Mar 25 Apr 25ADNOC GasSource: Bloomberg, Barclays Research ADNOC Distribution Analyst(s) Certification(s):We, Lydia Rainforth, CFA, Ramachandra Kamath, Naisheng Cui, CFA and Matthew Cooper, hereby certify (1) that the views expressed in this researchreport accurately reflect our personal views about any or all of the subject securities or issuers referred to in this research report and (2) no part of ourcompensation was, is or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this research report.Important Disclosures:Barclays Research is produced by the Investment Bank of Barclays Bank PLC and itsaffiliates(collectively and each individually, "Barclays"). Allauthors contributing to this research report are Research Analysts unless otherwise indicated. The publication date at the top of the report reflects thelocal time where the report was produced and maydifferfrom the release date provided in GMT.Availability of Disclosures:Where any companies are the subject of this research report, for current important disclosures regarding those companies please refer to https://publicresearch.barclays.com or alternatively send a written request to: Barclays Research Compliance, 745 Seventh Avenue, 13th Floor, New York, NY10019 or call +1-212-526-1072.The analysts responsible for preparing this research report have received compensation based upon various factors including the firm'