巴西的私人薪资：巨大机遇，但需谨慎行事

Issuer of report:HSBC Securities (USA) Inc.View HSBC GlobalResearch at:https://www.research.hsbc.com16 -19 June, The May Fair Hotel, LondonRegisterGCC Exchanges Conference 2025Neha Agarwala, CFAAnalyst, LatAm Financials & FintechHSBC Securities (USA) Inc.neha.agarwala@us.hsbc.com+1 212 525 5418Carlos Gomez-Lopez, CFAHead of EM and LatAm FinancialsHSBC Securities (USA) Inc.carlos.gomezlopez@us.hsbc.com+1 212 525 5253EquitiesDiversified Financial SrvcsBrazil ◆◆◆ Market size:Of the total USD1.1trn loans in Brazil (Dec-24), USD380bn or a-third is non-directedindividual loans; of these USD60bn are unsecured personal and USD120bn are payroll-deductibleloans. Private payroll is merely BRL40bn or USD7bn. Febraban estimates thatthe new system forprivate-payroll loans could generate BRL120bn, or 6% of total non-directed individuals loans, overfour years benefitting 19m formal workers out of total 47m.Traditionally,Itau Unibanco andSantander Brasilare the largest players in this segment with c30% market share each.Collateral: In theory, loan repayments will be deducted from workers’ paychecks via the eSocialdigital system, which consolidates employer-submitted records. Additionally, workers cancollateralize up to 10% of their FGTS severance fund and 100% of the terminationpenalty in case ofdismissal; the government plans to authorize the use of FGTS as collateral starting July.Non-directed individual loans (BRLbn)Composition of non-directed individual loans (%)Source: BCBNPL ratio (%)Source: BCBApr-21Apr-23Apr-25Public sector employeesPrivate sector employeesIndividual ex-personal0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%Apr-15Apr-17Apr-19Apr-21Apr-23Apr-25Personal unsecuredPublic sector employeesPrivate sector employeesRetirees & pensionersIndividual ex-personalApr-21Apr-23Apr-25Public sector employeesRetirees & pensioners024681012Apr-15Apr-17Apr-19Apr-21Apr-23Apr-25Personal unsecuredPublic sector employeesPrivate sector employeesRetirees & pensioners 3 Disclosure appendixAnalyst CertificationThe following analyst(s), economist(s), or strategist(s) who is(are) primarily responsible for this report, including any analyst(s)whose name(s) appear(s) as author of an individual section or sections of the report and any analyst(s) named as the coveringanalyst(s) of a subsidiary company in a sum-of-the-parts valuation certifies(y) that the opinion(s) on the subject security(ies) orissuer(s), any views or forecasts expressed in the section(s) of which such individual(s) is(are) named as author(s), andany otherviews or forecasts expressed herein, including any views expressed on the back page of the research report, accurately reflecttheir personal view(s) and that no part of their compensation was, is or will be directly or indirectly related to thespecificrecommendation(s) or views contained in this research report: Neha Agarwala, CFA and Carlos Gomez-Lopez, CFABrazilian Securities Exchange Commission (CVM) Resolution No. 20/2021Pursuant to CVM Resolution No. 20/2021, HSBC has obtained from the analyst(s) listed above under "Analyst Certification" anddisclosed (whereapplicable), the statements set forth in Article 21 and have rendered (where applicable) the statements set forthin Article 22, under the sections titled "Analyst Certification" and "HSBC & Analyst Disclosures".The analyst(s) furthermorecertifies(y) that the recommendations contained in this report have been prepared independently, even in relation to HSBC.Additionally, for purposes of Article 20, the principal analyst responsible for compliance of the mentioned regulation is thefirstname in the list under "Analyst Certification" that has local certification, where applicable.Important disclosuresEquities: Stock ratings and basis for financial analysisHSBC and its affiliates, including the issuer of this report (“HSBC”) believes an investor's decision to buy or sell a stockshoulddepend on individual circumstances such as the investor's existing holdings, risk tolerance and other considerations and thatinvestors utilise various disciplines and investment horizons when making investment decisions. Ratings should not be used orrelied on in isolation as investment advice. Different securities firms use a variety of ratings terms as well as different ratingsystems to describe their recommendations and therefore investors should carefully read the definitions of the ratings used ineach research report. Further, investors should carefully read the entire research report and not infer its contents from theratingbecause research reports contain more complete information concerning the analysts' views and the basis for the rating.From 23rd March 2015 HSBC has assigned ratings on the following basis:The target price is based on the analyst’s assessment of the stock’s actual current value, although we expect it to take sixto 12months for the market price to reflect this.When the target price is more than 20% above the current share price, the stockwillbe classified as a Buy; when