大湾区洞察：金融自由化——南沙引领潮流

Issuer of report:The Hongkong and ShanghaiBanking Corporation LimitedView HSBC Global Research at:https://www.research.hsbc.comListen to our insightsFind out moreHSBC Global Research PodcastsJing LiuChief Economist, Greater ChinaThe Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limitedjing.econ.liu@hsbc.com.hk+852 3941 0063Lulu Jiang (Reg. No. S1700523070001)Economist, Greater ChinaHSBC Qianhai Securities Limitedlulu.l.l.jiang@hsbcqh.com.cn+86 755 8898 3404Erin XinEconomist, Greater ChinaThe Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limitederin.y.xin@hsbc.com.hk+852 2996 6975Heidi LiAssociateGuangzhouEconomicsChina ◆◆◆ The openingoftheservicesector–the pace isacceleratingMorepilot projectsIn early2025, the Ministry of Commerce (MOFCOM) said that mainland China willroll outmoremeasures to expandtheopeningof the economy(gov.cn, 15 Jan).Theservice sector is apriorityas ithasthepotential to attract FDI as Chinese consumers haveagrowing appetite forhigh-quality services.Indeed, the weakness in Chinese household consumption is primarilyreflected in theshortfall of service consumption–its share of household service consumption inGDP was13.6%as of 2024, much lower thanindevelopedmarkets (US 47.6%, Japan 29.9%,Germany 27%). During the NPC meeting this year, Wang Wentao, Minister of Commerce,highlighted the lack of quality supply asachallengethatmayin turnprovide opportunities forforeign service providers.In April,the central government introduced a work plan for expanding the market access to keyservice sectors (All about services and opening up, 23 April). The policybuilds ona decade ofpilot programsspanning11 provinces and cities initiated in 2015. As of 2024, thesepilotschemes hadattracted RMB293.2bnofFDI into the service sector, accounting for about half ofthe totalservice FDInationally(Xinhua, 22 April).The latest policyannouncementwillexpandthe pilotschemesto20 provinces and cities,and broaden toincludecriticalcomponents forglobal businesses–the healthcare, finance,andtelecomsectorswerehighlighted.We believe this move will inject new impetusinto the developmentof thehigh-quality servicesector.According to the Service Trade Restrictiveness Index (STRI)developed bytheOECD,market access toseveralmainlandChina’skey services sectors–includingaccounting,broadcasting, telecommunication,and motion pictures–are still more restrictive than theworldaverage(Chart 1). Thismeans there is room for further market liberalisation. The latest openingmeasurescouldintroducehealthy competitionto the domestic market.Indeed,foreigninvestmentintheservice sectoraccountsformore thantwo-thirdsof China’s total FDI (in RMBterms), and it hasbeendecliningfor three consecutive years(Chart3).Chart1.Mainland China stillhasplenty of room toliberaliseservice tradeNote:The STRI outcomes reflect restrictions that apply to key strategic services sectors, and indices take values between zero andone, one being the most restrictive.Source:OECD, HSBCThe Greater Bay Area (GBA) and its pilot cooperation zones are at the forefront of the country’sopening. Notable progresshas been madein recent years. Takethefinancialsectoras anexample,theWealthManagementConnect (WMC)schemelaunchedin 2021allowsGBAresidentsto invest incross-boundaryfinancial products. As ofApril2025,there were 154,200individual investors participating in the WMCscheme,whichhasgrownmore thansixtimessince the launch;66% of the investors were mainland GBA residents, while the rest were fromHong Kong and Macao (see Chart15insection 2). Initiativessuch asBond Connect and Stock 2The central governmenthasreleasedaplan to acceleratethe opening of theservicessectorTheGBAhasplayedits rolein testing out theliberalisation measures… 3Connect programshavehelpedtofacilitateeasier access forforeigninvestors totapintomainland’s capital marketfrom Hong Kongand vice versa (Financial opening picks up pace,22 February 2024).In 2024,northbound Bond Connect transaction volumesreachedanewhighofRMB10.4trn, up 4% y-o-y(Chart2).TheStock Connect programalsogrew notablysinceits launch, especially in 2025. According to Wind, average daily turnover (ADT) on SouthboundStock Connecthas grown from HKD0.9bn in 2014 to HKD109.0bn year-to-date, while the ADTfortheNorthboundhas grown from RMB5.6bn in 2014 to RMB176.3bn year-to-date.WithintheGBA,effortshave beenmade toenhancetalent mobility and technologycooperation.Professionals from Hong Kong andMacao–including lawyers, architects,andaccountants–areallowed to practice in mainland GBA citiesafter obtainingtherelevant licences. In addition,preferential corporate income tax (CIT) and individual income tax (IIT) policieswereintroducedin pilot zones (i.e. Nansha, Hengqin, Qianhai,and Hetao)to promote investments andtalentexchangein key sectors.As for technologydevelopment, collaboration between universities,institutions,and business enterprisesare encouraged(Fostering innovation in uncertain times,14 March).Arecent exampleisthelaunch ofHetaoShenzhen-Hong KongScience andTechnology In