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19 - 25 May26 May - 1 June75,089116,775135,40886,999AprilMay93,061100,716Restricted - External Change72,242-4%16%90,2894%Change8% European InsurancePOSITIVEEuropean InsuranceLarissa van Deventer+44 (0)20 3555 1527larissa.vandeventer@barclays.comBarclays, UK FIGURE 2. Visitors to Hong Kong from Mainland China (# persons per day, % change wow)Note: Weeks with public holidays in China highlighted in green. Typhoon Saola was on 1 September 2023 and Typhoon Yagi on 5/6 September 2024.Source: Barclays Research, Bloomberg; Immigration Department, The Government of the HKSARFIGURE 3. Visitors to Hong Kong from Mainland China (# persons per day)-300,000-200,000-100,0000100,000200,000300,00001/01/202301/02/202301/03/202301/04/202301/05/202301/06/202301/07/202301/08/202301/09/202301/10/202301/11/202301/12/202301/01/202401/02/202401/03/202401/04/202401/05/202401/06/2024ArrivalsDeparturesSource: Barclays Research, Bloomberg; Immigration Department, The Government of the HKSARHistorically, the weekly pattern shows an increase in visitors on Friday, with weekend volumestypically stronger than weekday volumes. In the last week, average weekend volumes were1.87x above average weekday volumes (the post-lockdown average ratio is 1.37x).Monthly:Historically, May volumes are -6% below those of April (2012-18). For May 2025, theaverage daily volumes were 8% higher than those of April 2025. June volumes have historicallybeen in line with those of May, while volumes picked up by c.20% mom in July.3 June 2025 01/07/202401/08/202401/09/202401/10/202401/11/202401/12/2024 01/01/202501/02/202501/03/202501/04/202501/05/2025 2 FIGURE 4. Average daily visitors to Hong Kong from Mainland China by month (average # persons per day)Note: The most recent month's data is MTD; data for January highlighted in green.Source: Barclays Research, Bloomberg; Immigration Department, The Government of the HKSARFIGURE 5. Average daily visitors to Hong Kong from Mainland China by year (# persons per day)020,00040,00060,00080,000100,000120,000140,000160,00020112012201320142015201620172018201920202021Source: Barclays Research, Bloomberg; Immigration Department, The Government of the HKSARYearly:On an annual basis, the average number of MCV per day peaked in 2018 at 139,831. The2023 daily average was 73,361, or c.52% of the peak. In 2024, average volumes of 92,965 were atc.66% of 2018's annual volumes, and 27% above the 2023 average. YTD volumes are at 72% of2018, at an average of 100,711 persons per day.Impact on the investment case:MCV can impact sales of several insurers in Hong Kong,including Prudential Plc, as regulations stipulate that certain products can only be bought bythose physically present in Hong Kong. These typically pertain to savings products that provideexposure to USD-linked investments, with critical illness riders that provide access to Westernhealthcare.Prior to the pandemic, products sold specifically to MCV drove c.20% of Prudential's Asian lifesales. In our view, a recovery in MCV supports our Overweight rating on the stock.3 June 2025 20222023202420253 Analyst(s) Certification(s):I, Larissa van Deventer, hereby certify (1) that the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect my personal views about any or all of thesubject securities or issuers referred to in this research report and (2) no part of my compensation was, is or will be directly or indirectly related to thespecific recommendations or views expressed in this research report.Important Disclosures:Barclays Research is produced by the Investment Bank of Barclays Bank PLC and itsaffiliates(collectively and each individually, "Barclays"). Allauthors contributing to this research report are Research Analysts unless otherwise indicated. The publication date at the top of the report reflects thelocal time where the report was produced and maydifferfrom the release date provided in GMT.Availability of Disclosures:Where any companies are the subject of this research report, for current important disclosures regarding those companies please refer to https://publicresearch.barclays.com or alternatively send a written request to: Barclays Research Compliance, 745 Seventh Avenue, 13th Floor, New York, NY10019 or call +1-212-526-1072.The analysts responsible for preparing this research report have received compensation based upon various factors including the firm's total revenues,a portion of which is generated by investment banking activities, the profitability and revenues of the Markets business and the potential interest of thefirm's investing clients in research with respect to the asset class covered by the analyst.Research analysts employed outside the US byaffiliatesof Barclays Capital Inc. are not registered/qualified as research analysts with FINRA. Such non-US research analysts may not be associated persons of Barclays Capital Inc., which is a FINRA member, and therefore may not be subject to FINRA Rule2241 restrictions on communications with a subje