Credo Technology Group：多元化正在得到验证

2027ConsOldNewCons0.27E0.41E0.50E0.34E0.28E0.46E0.54E0.38E0.29E0.48E0.56E0.41E0.30E0.49E0.58E0.44E1.12E1.84E2.17E1.58E28.9Restricted - External Change y/y20262027850%32%471%35%68%33%26%32%133%33% CRDOOVERWEIGHTUnchangedU.S. Semiconductors &Semiconductor CapitalEquipmentNEUTRALUnchangedPrice TargetUSD 85.00raised 21% from USD 70.00Price (02-Jun-25)USD 62.65Potential Upside/Downside+35.7%Source: Bloomberg, Barclays ResearchU.S. Semiconductors & SemiconductorCapital EquipmentTom O'Malley+1 212 526 0692thomas.omalley@barclays.comBCI, USKyle Bleustein+1 212 526 7618kyle.bleustein@barclays.comBCI, USMatthew Pan+1 212 526 4106matthew.pan@barclays.comBCI, USSneha Muthe+1 212 526 8385snehakhagendra.muthe@barclays.comBCI, US 3 Large Customers Support Top Line Beat:Reported April revenue above at $170M (+26%Q/Q) vs. St. $160M on the back of continued strong AEC product-line growth. By segment,Product sales beat at $164.5M (+27% Q/Q vs. St. $151.9M) and IP License beat at $4.2M vs. St. at$3.6M (+40% Q/Q). Lastly, Product Engineering Services (NRE) came in below at $1.3M (-50%Q/Q vs. St. $4.8M). The company cited that this quarter AMZN made up 61% of revenue and twoother customers (MSFT and xAI) made up greater than 10% of revenue each. GMs came in aboveat 67.4% (vs. St. 64%) because of solid product gross margins up >350bps Q/Q driven byincreasing scale. Opex was just above at $52M (vs. St. $51M) and up sequentially due toincreased headcount. In all, this nets EPS above at $0.35 vs. St. $0.27.FIGURE 1. April Quarter ResultsSource: Barclays Research Estimates and BloombergLarge Customers Continue Support for July Beat:Guides July ahead at $190M (+12% Q/Q vs.St. $163M) with expectations for coming quarters to have 3-4 10% customers. By segment, weexpect Product revenue to be up ~12% Q/Q with AEC headlining the growth on a $s basis. Weexpect IP and NRE to remain in the L-MSD range (NRE at $1.4M and IP at $4.2M). Guides GMsabove at 65% (vs. St. 63.9%) but down sequentially to the high end of the LT guidance range.Guides opex higher at $55M (vs. St. $52M) and expects a diluted share count of 188M shares.This nets an implied EPS above at $0.37 (vs. St. $0.27). Looking ahead, the company expectsFY26 revenue to exceed $800M (up ~85% Y/Y), with opex to grow at less than half the rate ofrevenue from FY25 to FY26. Additionally, expects Net margin to approach 40% in FY26.3 Changes to EstimatesOur CY25 revenue/EPS move to $768M/$1.54 (prior $681M/$1.23), and CY26 moves to $984M/$2.04 (prior $866M/$1.69).Our price target of $85 is based upon 42x our CY26E EPS of $2.04. Our prior price target of $70was based upon 41x our CY26E EPS of $1.69.FIGURE 3. CRDO Barclays vs. ConsensusJul QRevenues$190MEPS$0.38Revenues$167MEPS$0.30Revenues$163MEPS$0.27CONSENSUSChanges to Revenue and EPS Estimates - New vs. Old vs. ConsensusNEWOLDSource: Barclays Research Estimates and Bloomberg Oct QCY25CY26$199M$768M$984M$0.40$1.54$2.04$173M$681M$866M$0.31$1.23$1.69$168M$663M$811M$0.28$1.10$1.43 Analyst(s) Certification(s):I, Tom O'Malley, hereby certify (1) that the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect my personal views about any or all of the subjectsecurities or issuers referred to in this research report and (2) no part of my compensation was, is or will be directly or indirectly related to the specificrecommendations or views expressed in this research report.Important Disclosures:Barclays Research is produced by the Investment Bank of Barclays Bank PLC and itsaffiliates(collectively and each individually, "Barclays"). Allauthors contributing to this research report are Research Analysts unless otherwise indicated. The publication date at the top of the report reflects thelocal time where the report was produced and maydifferfrom the release date provided in GMT.Availability of Disclosures:Where any companies are the subject of this research report, for current important disclosures regarding those companies please refer to https://publicresearch.barclays.com or alternatively send a written request to: Barclays Research Compliance, 745 Seventh Avenue, 13th Floor, New York, NY10019 or call +1-212-526-1072.The analysts responsible for preparing this research report have received compensation based upon various factors including the firm's total revenues,a portion of which is generated by investment banking activities, the profitability and revenues of the Markets business and the potential interest of thefirm's investing clients in research with respect to the asset class covered by the analyst.Analysts regularly conduct site visits to view the material operations of covered companies, but Barclays policy prohibits them from accepting paymentor reimbursement by any covered company of their travel expenses for such visits.Barclays Research Department produces various types of research including, but not limited to, fundamental analysis, equity-linked analysis,quantitative analysis, and trade ideas. Recommendations contained in o