领导者重新评级与新公司助力大众市场商品行业

1OVERWEIGHT(Maintain)OVERWEIGHT(Maintain)NI Xinyunixinyu@htsc.com+(86) 21 2897 2228WANG Kexinwangkexin019215@htsc.com+(86) 21 2897 2228Sector performanceSource: Wind, Huatai ResearchStockrecommendationsCodeTP (LocalCurrency)Rating600887 CH36.33BUY600600 CH92.30BUY168 HK71.78BUY300973 CH61.50BUY9985 HK19.96BUY002847 CH99.84BUY002461 CH12.60BUY000729 CH15.60BUY1112 HK17.67BUY220 HK11.17BUY600298 CH42.96BUYSource: Company data, Huatai Research estimatesJan-25May-25Beverage FoodBeverageAnalystSACNo. S0570523080004SFC No. BVQ058AnalystSAC No. S0570524020001SFC No. BVO215CompanyYiliTsingtao BreweryTsingtao BrewLigao FoodsWeilongYankershop FoodZhujiang BreweryBeijing YanjingBreweryH&H InternationalUni-President ChinaAngel Yeast(28)(17)(5)718May-24(%) Sep-24FoodCSI300 This report must be read withimportant disclosures and analyst certifications located on the end of the report.How our views differ from the market’s1)We believe the market underestimatesthe valuation andprofit upsideof large-cap leaders. Weare optimistic about theirre-rating,catalyzedby capital inflows andfundamentalimprovements.2)In contrast to the market’s focus on‘newconsumption’firmsin the discretionary segment, we identify‘new consumption’targetswithinthe consumerstaplessegment that feature changes in products andchannels, backed by solid fundamentals and high earnings delivery potential.Industry risks: macroeconomic growth falling short of our expectations; intensifiedindustry competition;worsecost volatility than we expect; food-safetyissues. This report must be read with important disclosures and analyst certifications located on the end of the report.4BeijingYanjingBrewery(000729 CH)Beijing Yanjing Brewery (Yanjing) reported revenue/attributable NP/recurring NP of RMB14.67/1.06/1.04bn in 2024 (up 3.2/63.7/108.0% yoy), inline with its preliminary results report (revenue/attributable of RMB14.67/1.06bn). This translates into 4Q24 revenue/attributable NP/recurring NP ofRMB+1.82/-0.23/-0.22bn (+1.3% yoy/RMB-0.31bn/RMB-0.37bn for 4Q23), showcasing notable loss reductions. Advancing the reform initiatives,Yanjing saw its beer sales volume/per-tonne price change by+1.6/-0.6% yoy in 2024, with U8’s sales volume up 31.4% yoy to 696k kL owing toproduct iterations in its home market and penetration into untapped markets. This resulted in a better-than-peers operating results. Profit wise, the2024 GPM/attributable NPMrose 3.1/2.7pp yoy, indicating enhanced profitability backed by product-mix upgrade, lower costs, and cost reduction& efficiency enhancements. Yanjing expects its revenue to grow 9% yoy for 2025 (8% yoy for 2024), denoting development confidence. We believeYanjing could achieve expedited profitability growth leveraging sales ramp-up of U8.As 2025 is the final year for Yanjing to wrap up it its 14th FYP, weexpectsustained high sales growth in U8 to unlock long-term earnings potential,and expect reformmeasures to continue bearing fruits. We forecast2025/2026/2027 EPSatRMB0.52/0.65/0.80. As our estimated NP CAGR for2024-2026 (42%) is higher than its peers’ average of 9% on Wind consensus, we value the stock at 30x 2025E PE, above its peers’ average of 22x,for our target price of RMB15.60. BUY.(Our latest report on Beijing Yanjing Brewery waspublished on23 April 2025.)Risks: food-safety issues; disappointing premiumization progress; and intensified competition. This report must be read with important disclosures and analyst certifications located on the end of the report.DisclaimersAnalyst CertificationI/We, NI Xinyu, WANG Kexin, hereby certify that the views expressed in this report accurately reflect the personal views of theanalyst(s) about the subject securities or issuers; and no part of thecompensation of the analyst(s) was, is, or will be, directly orindirectly, related to the inclusion of specific recommendations or views in this report.General Disclaimers and DisclosuresThis research report has been prepared by Huatai Financial Holdings (Hong Kong) Limited (hereinafter referred to as“HFHL”).The information herein is strictly confidential to the recipient. This report is intended for HFHL, its clients and associatedcompanies. Any other person shall not be deemed a client of the Company merely from his or her receipt of this report.This report is based on information deemed reliable and publicly available by HFHL, but HFHL and its associated company(ies)(collectively, hereinafter“Huatai”)makes no guarantee as to the accuracy orcompleteness of such information.The opinions, assessments and projections contained herein only reflect the views and judgments at the issuance date. Huataimay issue research reports that contain inconsistent views, assessments and projections with those set out herein at differenttimes. The prices, values and investment returns of the securities or investment instruments referred to herein may fluctuate. Pastperformance is not a guide to future performance, future returns are not guaranteed, and a loss of or