南非汽车行业：5月：强劲势头，年初至今销售额增长21%

South AfricaAutos May:Strongmomentumwith sales up 21% YTD South Africa ◆Newvehicle salesgrew22.0%y-o-yinMay’25;strong 30.0%growthinpassengerand 6.7% incommercial Nick Webster*Head of Research, South AfricaHSBC Bank plcnick.webster@hsbc.com+44 7468 703441 ◆Export salesdeclinedby14.6% y-o-yandareup 1.4% YTD Harshul Sharma*Analyst, South Africa Consumer and IndustrialsHSBC Securities and CapitalMarkets (India) Private Limitedharshul.sharma@hsbc.co.in+91 91 3676 7047 ◆Uncertainty around tariffs a key risk, while cumulative effect ofrate cutsandeasinginflationsupportpositive momentum Vehicle salesgrewstronglyby22.0% y-o-y(+11.9%inApr’25)to 45,308units inMay’25.Passengervehicle sales increased by30.0%(+16.9% inApr’25)to31,741units.Commercial vehicle salesgrew by6.7% y-o-y to 13,567units,havingturnedpositiveinApr’25after 13 months of consecutive decline. Of the total reported industry sales,88.4%represented dealer,6.8% rental,1.8% government, and3.0% corporate.Market share forMotuswasup 10bpm-o-mto 13.5%inMay,with itsvehicle salesupby38.0% y-o-y,continuing thepositivetrajectory sinceOct’24, post24 consecutive months of decline.Export salesweredown14.6%y-o-y, largely attributable to a major exporting OEMhalting production for assembly area upgrades.The manufacturing PMIdeclinedfurtherto43.1points (Apr’25: 44.7), remainingbelow 50for theseventhconsecutive month,reflecting a deterioration in business conditions.Price dynamics continued to trendpositively, with motor vehicle inflationat2.1% y-o-y in the latest print, amidacontinuedeasing in newand usedvehiclepricegrowth. * Employed by a non-US affiliate of HSBC Securities (USA) Inc, and isnot registered/ qualified pursuant to FINRA regulations We expect consumer relief in the medium term, but near-term pressures areevident.Consumer sentimentin 1Q25slumped to-20 index points from-6 in 4Q24,possibly triggered by the threat of higher taxes, discord among partners in thegovernment of national unity (GNU), the withdrawal of US aid to SA and the rapiddeterioration in diplomatic relations between thetwo countries(Local and global riskstempering the pace of recovery, 30 Apr 2025). CPIremained moderate at 2.8% in Aprilvs2.7% in March.The SARBloweredits policy rateby 25bpto7.25% at itsMayMonetary Policy Committee(MPC), a significant change from the MPC’s hawkishstance in its previous two meetings, but also comes as the SA government abandonedits VAT hike plans.Looking forward, above-inflation increases to social grants and theexpansion of the zero-rated VAT basket should partially shield low-incomehouseholds.We also expect a broader revival in household spendingsupported bythecumulative effects of lower inflation and rate cuts, alongside a reduction infuelprices. Outlook:Automotive exports to the US will now face material cost disadvantages, raisingconcerns about pricing competitiveness and profitability for multinational OEMs operatingdomestically.The tariff uncertainty is also creating a difficult environment for businessesand could hinder competitive strategies, delay capital investments, distort long-termplanning and increase short-term volatility.TheVAT hike reversaland last week’s 25bp cuttothepolicy ratearepositive for household consumption andconsumer confidence. GCC Exchanges Conference 2025 16 -19 June, The May Fair Hotel, London Register Issuer of report:HSBC Bank plcViewHSBC Global Research at:https://www.research.hsbc.com Disclosures & DisclaimerThis report must be read with the disclosures and the analyst certifications in the Disclosure appendix, and with the Disclaimer, which forms part of it. Potential impact of US tariffs on South Africa Autos ◆Vehicles produced outside the US face a punitive 25% tariff, and other automotive productsare now also impacted. Thiswill begintoshowanimpact on South Africa’s export-oriented(c70% of manufacturing is outbound)auto industry by July when the orders it had alreadysecured before the tariff imposition will have been fulfilled. ◆The 90-day pause on the separate 31% country-specific tariff imposed on South Africabased on the US trade deficit with it will also expire in July. ◆South Africa benefits from duty-free access to the US market underthe African Growth andOpportunity Act(AGOA), which remains vitally important to the SouthAfrican automotive industry.The policy is up for renewal in Sep’25 and,given the diplomatic tensions,there is a risk here. ◆In 2023, the US was SA’s second-biggest automotive trading partner after Germany, withtotal trade between the two countries valued at ZAR56.8bn. This comprised ZAR27.9bn inexports from SA to the US and ZAR28.8bn in imports from the US. ◆Exports are more concentrated around the higher-end models from the likes of BMW andMercedes–higher tariffs would clearly make those more expensive and erode the costcompetitiveness of SA. ◆Vehicles broadly account for 22% of South Africa's exports to the US, sotherecouldbemore far-reaching consequences for local manufacture