保护弱势群体：新关税负担的成本

IntroductionThe participation of vulnerable economies in theglobal economy remains stubbornly low, despiteprovisions for special and differential treatment inthe multilateral rulebook.The new tariff tensions could further threaten thelittle gains made by least developed countries,small island developing States and landlockeddeveloping countries.Vulnerable economies account for only a smallfraction of US imports. They contribute less than0.5% to the US trade deficit and would have amarginal contribution to its tariff revenue.Yet, they could face some of the highest newUS tariffs, resulting in a decline of vital exportsand posing substantial risks to their development. Vulnerableeconomiesrefer to:least developedcountries,small islanddeveloping States,landlockeddeveloping countries. Vulnerable economies’ share of globalexports is very small.Share of global exports and population in 2023 (%)Source:UNCTAD Secretariat, based on UN Comtrade and World Bank for the year 2023.Note:Small island developing States excluding Singapore.Share of global exports (%)Share of global population (%)Vulnerable economies2.716.71.31.30.30.8Least developed countriesLandlocked developing countriesSmall island developing States7.214.4 And this has hardly changed over thepast decade.Vulnerable economies’ share of global exportsSource:UNCTAD Secretariat, based on UNCTADStat.Note:Small island developing States excluding Singapore.Least developedcountriesLandlocked developingcountriesSmall island developingStates20052015202419952005201520241995200520152024SDG target 17.11Significantly increase the exportsof developing countries, in particular with a viewto doubling the least developed countries’ shareof global exports by 2020 19950.01.02.0% 4Source:UNCTAD Secretariat, based on UN Comtrade for the year 2023.Note:Small island developing States excluding Singapore.The US is vital for their exports, yet theymake up only a small part of US imports.Relative importance of exports to the US in terms of vulnerableeconomies’ exports and US imports.Trading partners' perspectiveshare of vulnerable countries'total exports (%) to the USUnited States' perspectiveshare of the United States'total imports (%)Vulnerable economiesSmall island developing StatesLeast developed countriesLandlocked developing countries0.60.90.28.01.68.92.125.3 5Source:UNCTAD Secretariat, based on UN Comtrade.Note:Small island developing States excluding Singapore.In fact, they contribute only 0.3% to theUS trade deficit.Vulnerable countries’ share of US imports and contribution tothe US goods trade deficit in 2023 (%)1.6%0.3%0.9%1.5%0.6%-1.2%0.2%-0.2%VulnerableeconomiesLeast developedcountriesSmall islanddeveloping StatesLandlockeddeveloping countriesShare in total US importsContribution to the US trade deficit New US tariffs arean extra burdenfor vulnerable economiesA scenario where the United States unilaterallyraises its tariffs to the levels announcedbetween January and May 2025, includingnew country-specific tariffs. Source:UNCTAD Secretariat, based on US Presidential actions, including Executive Orders published by the WhiteHouse and US Federal Register, and Guidance by US Customs and Border Protection.Notes:Belarus, Cuba, North Korea and Russia are exempted from new country-specific tariffs under Annex I as othertariff schedules apply for countries without “Normal Trade Relations”. For China, sectoral tariffs apply on top of illicitdrug-related tariffs of 20%. Many of the exempted products are subject to ongoing Section 232 investigations.New US tariffs are built up in layersand are different for every country.New tariffs on top of existing tariffs based on US Presidentialactions between January and mid-May 2025.Country-specific tariffsSectoral (exempted from new country-specific tariffs)for all countries except for Canada, Mexico and Chinaup to 50% for some - on hold for a period of 90 days (Executive Order 14257, Annex I)145% for the first month forChina then reduced to a 10% baseline tariff,for non-USMCA originating goods fromCanada andMexicoExempted products (Executive Order 14257, Annex II, and further additions via PresidentialMemoranda (e.g. on smartphones)on iron or steel and derivatives of steel under Section 232 (national security)on aluminium and derivates of aluminium under Section 232 (national security)on automobiles and parts under Section 232 (national security)on non-USMCAoriginatingpotash fromCanada andMexicoon non-USMCAoriginatingenergy-related products fromCanadain addition to a 20% fentanyl tariff and Section 301 tariffs until 13 August 2025Country-specific tariffsSectoral (exempted from new country-specific tariffs)for all countries except for Canada, Mexico and Chinaup to 50% for some - on hold for a period of 90 days (Executive Order 14257, Annex I)145% for the first month forChina then reduced to a 10% baseline tariff,for non-USMCA originating goods fromCanada andMexicoExempted products (Executive Order 14257, Annex II, and further additio