未来评级上调数量减少

Restricted - External Asia Credit StrategyAvanti Save, CFA+65 6308 3116avanti.save@barclays.comBarclays Bank, SingaporeYimin Weng, CFA+65 6308 2716yimin.weng@barclays.comBarclays Bank, SingaporeSarah Beh+ 65 6308 5087sarahemi.beh@barclays.comBarclays Bank, SingaporeAsia Credit ResearchJit Ming Tan, CFA+65 6308 3210jitming.tan@barclays.comBarclays Bank, SingaporeRoanna Chau+852 2903 2625roanna.chau@barclays.comBarclays Bank, Hong KongWilson Ho, CFA+852 2903 2656wilson.ho@barclays.comBarclays Bank, Hong KongImtiaz Shefuddin+65 6308 4906imtiaz.shefuddin@barclays.comBarclays Bank, Singapore Asia Credit AlphaOverviewOur constructive view on Asia credit is supported by anexpectation of no surge in new deal volumes and that peakdisruption from macro developments has passed.Rally to continue. Macro uncertainty continues to recede, and risk appetite remainsstrong, even though passage of the the US tax bill and rises in US/Japan long bonds havecaptured attention. We believe market participants have accepted that the macro backdrop willremain volatile but that peak disruption has also passed. Against this backdrop, we expect Asiacredit to continue to trade with a firm tone underpinned by robust technicals (limited new dealvolumes and sizeable reinvestment demand from bond maturities).Resilience in Asia Credit spreads.Over the past two weeks, credit spreads in Asia High Gradehave remained resilient as a whole, tightening by 3bp in this period. Within High Grade, we haveseen outperformance by thehigher beta segments,including BBB rated China TMTs (11bptighter), India High Grade (7bp tighter), as well assegments that lagged previouslysuch as theThai corporates (11bp tighter, led by TOPTB and PTTGC), and the Taiwanese complex (8bptighter, led by TAISEM). On the other hand, the Philippines complex has underperformed AsiaHigh Grade, widening by 4bp.In contrast, the Asia High Yield segment has widened 10bp over the past two weeks. India HY exVEDLN has outperformed the broader Asia High Yield segment, tightening by 3bp, spurred bythe India airports (5bp tighter) and steel (3bp tighter) segments. On the other hand, theIndonesia (42bp wider) and China Property (+96bp wider) segments have lagged.29 May 2025 Asia Credit StrategyAvanti Save, CFA+65 6308 3116avanti.save@barclays.comBarclays Bank, SingaporeYimin Weng, CFA+65 6308 2716yimin.weng@barclays.comBarclays Bank, SingaporeSarah Beh+ 65 6308 5087sarahemi.beh@barclays.comBarclays Bank, Singapore 1Trump delays EUtariffsuntil July 9, European markets rally, Reuters, 23 May 20252Court strikes down Trump'stariffs,ruling them illegal, CBS News, 28 May 20253Bloomberg: Trump GlobalTariffsDeemed Illegal, Blocked by Trade Court (3); Bloomberg: A federal court just killedTrump’stariffprogram, immediately striking them down nationwide.Note: Biggest gainers and laggards are the bonds with the largest or smallestpercentage change in price, respectively, on a m/m basis. China property, LGFVs andperpetual bonds are excluded. *EHICAR 12 2027 and **UPLLIN 4.625 2030 has alsooutperformed. ***The NWDEVL 4.75 2027, 5.875 2027, 4.5 2030, 8.625 2028, and****VLLPM 7.25 2027 have also underperformed.Source: Bloomberg, Barclays ResearchOverhang of macro-economic volatility continues.We continue to be in a period of sustainedvolatility.Aftera lull intariff-relatedheadlines post the US-Chinatariffreprieve, at the end oflast week President Trump re-ignited the focus ontariffswith his threat to hike US tradetariffson the EU to 50% from 1 June. On Sunday night, this rhetoric proved again to be a 'negotiating'tactic, as the EUtariffhike was delayed to 9 July1. This morning in Asia time, the United StatesCourt of International Trade has ruled thetariffsimposed by the Trump Administration underthe International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) illegal2, deeming that "anyinterpretation of IEEPA (International Emergency Economic Powers Act) that delegatesunlimitedtariffauthority is unconstitutional". According to Bloomberg reports, the ruling doesnotaffectthetariffssubject to Section 232 and 301 levies, including the 25% on US imports ofsteel, aluminum, autos, and autoparts.3The Trump Administration has since filed notice ofappeal with the US Trade Court (see Thinking Macro: Never a dull moment, 29 May 2025).In other developments, Moody's downgrade of the United States' sovereign credit rating fromAaa to Aa1 due to a decline of fiscal metrics, is likely to bring renewed attention on the strengthof foreign demand for US assets including Treasuries. On the equity side, the US's share ofglobal equity flows is falling, at a time when global ex-US equities are breaking out from theirpost-GFC range. Nevertheless, with the long-term flows gap between the US and Europe/RoWstill looking wide, the reallocation in equities may still be in its early stages, according to ourequity team. But so far, there is no clear evidence of "sell America" flows in global credit data. Insaying that, the focus remains on foreign