原油每周报告

Special report on Guotai Junan FuturesCONTENTSMacroscopic02Oil:WideRangeFluctuationsAtTheWeeklyLevel,HoldingLightPositions In RegularComparison of interest rates,precious metals, and oil pricetrendsOverseas service industry dataChina Credit Data OverviewPositions SupplyOverview of Export Volume ofOPEC+CoreMember CountriesOverview of Export Volume ofNon-OPEC+CoreMemberCountriesUS shale oil production Price and SpreadFutures and spot basis differenceFutures monthly spreadPrice difference between SC,WTI& BrentNet position change DemandOperating rates of refineries inEurope and AmericaOperating rate of Chineserefineries InventoryInventory of various types of oilproducts in the United Statesand EuropeInventory of various types of oilproducts in the Asia Pacificregion 2 Overview01 Special report on Guotai Junan FuturesViewpoint summary:Wide Range FluctuationsAtTheWeeklyLevel, HoldingLightPositionsInRegularPositionsOur viewpoint：◆Themarketiscurrentlyexperiencingwidefluctuationsattheweeklylevel,withlimitedupwardpotentialinthethirdquarter;◆Inthemediumtolongterm,thereissignificantdownwardpressureonoilprices,andBrentmaytest$50perbarrelwithintheyear;Our logic：◆Ontheonehand,OPEC+announcedasignificantincreaseof411000barrelsofproductioninJuly,withacumulativeplannedincreaseofabout1millionbarrelsperdayfromApriltoJuly(excludingcompensatoryproductioncuts),limitingthedestockingeffortsinthethirdquarter.Ontheotherhand,favorablefactorssuchasasignificantcontractioninIran'scrudeoilsupplyunderUSsanctions(disruptedbyUSIranrelations),lowabsoluteinventoriesinmajorregionsexceptforfloatingpositions,andaslowdowninUSshaleoilsupplygrowthstillexist.Intheshortterm,oilpricesmayenterawiderangeofweeklyfluctuations(Brentintherangeof$58-70perbarrel);◆IfOPEC+performswellinincreasingproduction,thelong-termexcesspressureinthecrudeoilmarketwillincrease.Addingtradewaruncertainty,theremaybeadeeperdeclinewithintheyear;Risk statement:◆Globaleconomic,geopolitical,climateandothermacrouncertainties;PricewartriggeredbyinternaldisagreementswithinOPEC+;TheshaleoiltechnologyintheUnitedStateshasmadeanotherbreakthrough.Our strategy：◆Closingmultiplepositions;◆Holdingthepositionof'longnearmonth,shortfarmonth' 4 Special report on Guotai Junan FuturesSupply:OPEC+plansto significantly increase production in July, increasing medium to long-term excess pressureCountry/RegionSupply OverviewKazakhstanInApril2025,theactualproductionexceededtheOPEC+targetbynearly300000barrelsperday(299000barrelsperday).TherewasnosignificantchangeinproductioninMay,anditisexpectedtomaintainahighlevelofoutputinthefuture.KazakhstanstartedincreasingproductioninFebruary2025duetotheexpansionofTengizoilfield;VenezuelaThepressureofUSsanctionshasintensified,makingitdifficultfortheVenezuelanNationalOilCompany(PDVSA)tomaintainitsproductionofsourcrudeoil.ThisactionterminatedChevron'scrudeoilexportcapacity,whichhasbeenapproximately250000barrelsperday(250000b/d)sincetheendof2024;PDVSAcrudeoilinventoryisestimatedtobe19millionbarrels(19mnbl)bytheendofMay2025,equivalenttoapproximately7daysofproduction;TheendofChevron'sexemptionhasledtoasharpdeclineinexportdemand,exacerbatingthepressureofoversupply;The United ArabEmiratesThetargetproductionhasincreasedby180000barrelsperdayfromApriltoJune2025,reaching3.09millionbarrelsperday.Expectedtoincreasebyanother77000barrelsperdayinJuly(dependingontheMay31stmeeting).Amongthem,Murbacrudeoilexportsincreasedby100000barrelsperdayinJune;TheincreaseinMurbacrudeoilproduction(drivenbyAdnoc)hasledtoadeformationoftheDubaibenchmark,resultinginsustainedlowspotprices;IraqWearereducingoverproduction(whichstartedinthefourthquarterof2024),butweneedtobalancethetargetbyretroactivelycompensatingfortheproductioncuts.InMay2025,theproblemofoverproductionstillexists,andtheincreaseintargetswillberestrained.Inaddition,thedifferenceinIraq'soverproductionisexpectedtobeapproximately3000barrelsperdayby2025;RussiaIn2024,theaverageexportofcrudeoilbysea(excludingKazakhstancrudeoil)was3.46millionbarrelsperday(higherthan3.33millionbarrelsperdayin2022).FromJanuarytoApril2025,exportsdecreasedto3.33millionbarrelsperday,lowerthanthe3.6millionbarrelsperdayinthesameperiodof2024(page4).Pricereductionisthereasonfortherecentdeclineinexports;Uralscrudeoilpriceshaverisen:duetoreducedshippingcosts(thetransportationcostofSuezmaxtankersfromPrimorsktoIndiahasdecreasedby20%comparedtoApril.Duringthesameperiod,transportationcostsfromNovorossiyskhavealsodecreasedby10%),UralspricesreachedtheirhighestlevelinMay2025;TheEUwillimplementnewsanctionsonMay20,2025,targetingtheSurgutneftegazoilcompanyand200shadowfleets,andconsiderloweringthepriceceilingof$60perbarreltoatleast5%belowmarketprice.USAThenumberofcrudeoildrillingrigshasdecreasedbynearly25%inthepasttwoyears,andwillcontinuetodeclinein2025,mainlyduetothelowWTIprices(about60-70USdollarsperbarrel)andtheimpactofsteeltariffsonequipmentcosts.Itisexpectedthattheyear-on-yeargrowthofUScrudeoilproductionin2025willonlybe0.4-0.6millionbarrelsperday,andtheshaleindustryiscloseto