博思艾伦汉密尔顿（BAH）：并非稳健的收入指引-有机增长前景与5-8%目标对比

6.356.35 2026E2027E11,999.012,729.06.89764.0012,856.013,722.06.206.90 2028E13,503.0--7.70 Sheila Kahyaoglu * | Equity Analyst+1 (212) 336-7216 | sheila.kahyaoglu@jefferies.comEllen Page * | Equity Associate+1 (212) 323-3381 | epage@jefferies.com The Long View: Booz Allen HamiltonInvestment Thesis / Where We DifferBAH has positioned itself as an organic growth leader in the governmentservices market. However, with a key contract loss and a more difficult Civilprocurement environment, we see more limited upside to earnings from here.We expect EPS to post a 7% CAGR in FY26-28 vs 14% over the past 5 yrs.Organic EBITDA is likely range bound with less favorable mix of Civil.Base Case,$120, +11%•Revenue grows 1% organic in FY26E and 6% inFY27E with a reset in Civil this year, but a returnto growth beginning in FH2.•Adj. EBITDA margins of 11.0%.•Tax rate of 24%.•Average share count of 122MM.•Price Target: $120. Multiple: 1) 17.6X (10%discount to S&P vs. 10-yr avg 6% premium); 2)12.2X (10% discount to S&P vs. 10-yr avg 9%prem); and 3) FCF yield of 5.4% (26% discountto S&P vs. 10-yr avg 7% discount).Sustainability MattersTop Material Issue(s): 1)GHG Emissions:SBTi Emissions Targets: Booz Allen Hamilton is currently inthe process of establishing data-driven and meaningful emissions reductions targets, consistent with thecriteria set forth by the Science Based Target initiative (SBTi). BAH will set intermediate targets on its pathto net-zero by 2050.2)Employee Engagement, Diversity & Inclusion:Booz Allen Hamilton is committedto diversity initiatives with 89% of its executive leadership team are women and/or people of color.Company Target(s): 1)Achieve net-zero emissions by 2050;2)15% reduction in emissions by 2026 on aper employee and per square foot basis;3)Joined the Business Ambition for 1.5oC campaign, undergoinga two-year effort to set targets for emissions reductionsQs to Mgmt: 1)As a labor-oriented business, how does Booz Allen Hamilton attract and retain top talent,including diverse and underrepresented persons to its organization?The Five ESG Issues Investors Should Look At When Investing in A&DPlease see important disclosure information on pages 20 - 25 of this report.This report is intended for Jefferies clients only. Unauthorized distribution is prohibited. Upside Scenario,$200, +86%•Near-term Federal IT spending accelerates withdefense budget supporting key service areas.OrganicCAGR of 6%through FY27 with aresumption of 5 Civil contracts at full rate andquicker backlog conversion..•Pace of contract awards accelerates materially.•Pricingenvironmentmargins expansion•11.5% adj. EBITDA margins.•FY27E Adj. EPS: $7.70; Target Multiple: ~27x (3-yr peak 37% prem to S&P vs 13% 3-yr avg); PriceTarget: $200. Downside Scenario,$95, -12%•Continuing resolution slows contract rampsand new awards. Competition in the emerginggrowthsegments/intelligence intensifies,contract protests increase. Revenue flat y-o-y inFY26 and -2% FY27.•EBITDA margins contract to 10.8%.•No further share repurchase.•FY27E Adj. EPS: $5.80; Target Multiple: ~16x(10-yrtrough 16%discount to S&P);PriceTarget: $95.Catalysts•Organic growth reaccelerates from flattish w/resumption of 5 impacted program.s•Ramp of recent wins such as Thunderdome,EDITS, DMAC, SMART, offset losses such as VAPTEMS and price adjustments.•Continued material contract awards, includingother large Artificial Intelligence/Cyber wins.•FCF conversion improvement with cleanernumbersin FY26 following net$185MMpositive one time items in FY25E.•Accelerated repurchases or renewed, accretiveM&A. improves,providing 2 Investment ConsiderationsIn this report we highlight the following:•1) FY26 (March YE) Guidance Initiated with 0-4% Top Line Growth with Deceleration Drivenby Civil•2) FY26 Organic Growth +1% (Flat Reported) With Civil Down LDD•3) Margins Range Bound Near 11%•4) FCF Growth Modest on a Core Basis with One Timers Boosting Cash in FY25•5) Price Target and Valuation1) FY26 (March YE) Guidance Initiated with 0-4% TopLine Growth with Deceleration Driven by CivilFollowing 11.6% organic growth in FY25, management has initiated FY26 (Mar YE) revenue guidanceto 0-4% growth, reflecting ~$12.2BB at the midpoint. This includes ~$20MM (20bps) of revenueacquired from the PGSC deal, closed in June 2024, offset by a $122MM headwind from the absenceof release of ICS claim audit reserves recorded in FQ2:25. The company pointed to continuedmomentum in Defense and Intel, while Civil (35% of FY25 revs) is expected down LDD (est -10% y-o-y for FY26E) leaving overall revenue flat on our estimate.Q4 Adj. EBITDA came in at $316MM for 10.6% margins, taking FY25 EBITDA to $1.315BB or 11.0%margins. Management has initiated the full-year guidance for ~11% EBITDA margins in FY26 as well,which would be the fourth consecutive year at this margin level.The company reported a 0.7X B2B with a change in backlog, implying bookings of $2.1BB up 3% y-o-y, for a full year B2B of 1.4X. However, the company exp