第21周图表-叙利亚制裁解除可能在中期使供应增加每日35万桶油当量

20022004200620082010201220142016201820202022Restricted - External European Integrated EnergyPOSITIVEEuropean Integrated EnergyLydia Rainforth, CFA+44 (0)20 3134 6669lydia.rainforth@barclays.comBarclays, UKMatthew Cooper+44 (0)20 3555 6525matthew.cooper@barclays.comBarclays, UKNaisheng Cui, CFA+44 (0)20 7773 0486naisheng.cui@barclays.comBarclays, UKRamachandra Kamath+91 (0)22 61752308ramchandra.kamath@barclays.comBarclays, UKThea Lacroix+44 (0)20 3555 3088thea.lacroix@barclays.comBarclays, UK Refining margins and product cracksFIGURE 3. Diesel crack spread, $/bl010203040506014710 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 5210 Year Range2025202410 Year avgWeekSource: Bloomberg, Barclays ResearchFIGURE 5. Jet fuel crack spread, $/bl710 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 52202410 Year avg-101030507014710 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 5210 Year Range2025202410 Year avgWeekSource: Bloomberg, Barclays Researchnet importer. As a result, a potential additional supply of c.350kboe/d could come back to themarket in the medium term, depending on the reconstruction timeline.2 FIGURE 2. Gasoline crack spread, $/blSource: Bloomberg, Barclays ResearchFIGURE 4. Naphtha crack spread, $/bl-30-20-1001020301410 Year Range2025WeekSource: Bloomberg, Barclays Research19 May 2025 Source: Bloomberg, Barclays ResearchFIGURE 8. Implied NWE refining margin, $/bl-1001020301471013 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 5210 Year Range2025WeekSource: Bloomberg, Barclays ResearchFIGURE 10. US Gulf gasoline WTI crack, $/bl-10010203040506014710 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 5210 Year Range2025WeekSource: Bloomberg, Barclays Research, EIA19 May 2025 Source: Bloomberg, Barclays ResearchFIGURE 14. Global crude oil floating storage, mbl0501001502002501471013 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 52Week7 year range7 Year avgSource: Bloomberg, Barclays ResearchFIGURE 16. Brent vs. refining margin020406080100120140May-12May-13May-14Jun-15May-16May-17Brent (LHS)Source: Bloomberg, Barclays Research19 May 2025 Source: Bloomberg, Barclays Research19 May 2025 US inventories and productionFIGURE 20. US total inventories, mblSource: EIA, Bloomberg, Barclays ResearchFIGURE 22. US gasoline inventories, mbl2002202402601471013 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 52Week7 year range20252024Source: EIA, Bloomberg, Barclays Research19 May 2025 Product supplyFIGURE 26. Gasoline supplied in the US, mboed7891014710 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 52Week5-year RangeSource: Bloomberg, Barclays Research19 May 2025 20252024 Relative price performanceFIGURE 28. SXEP vs. SXXPSource: Bloomberg, Barclays ResearchFIGURE 30. bp vs. SXEP80859095100105May24Jun24Jul24Aug24Sep24Oct24Nov24Dec24Jan25Feb25%Source: Bloomberg, Barclays Research19 May 2025 FIGURE 32. TTE vs. SXEPSource: Bloomberg, Barclays ResearchContinued...FIGURE 34. REP vs. SXEP80859095100105May24Jun24Jul24Aug24%Source: Bloomberg, Barclays Research19 May 2025 Continued....FIGURE 40. European IntegratedsSource: Bloomberg, Barclays ResearchFIGURE 41. Middle East stocks vs ADX Index8090100110120130140150May 24Jun 24 Jul 24 Aug 24 Sep 24 Oct 24 Nov 24 Dec 24 Jan 25 Feb 25 Mar 25 Apr 25 May 25ADNOC GasSource: Bloomberg, Barclays Research ADNOC Distribution Analyst(s) Certification(s):We, Lydia Rainforth, CFA, Ramachandra Kamath, Naisheng Cui, CFA and Matthew Cooper, hereby certify (1) that the views expressed in this researchreport accurately reflect our personal views about any or all of the subject securities or issuers referred to in this research report and (2) no part of ourcompensation was, is or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this research report.Important Disclosures:Barclays Research is produced by the Investment Bank of Barclays Bank PLC and itsaffiliates(collectively and each individually, "Barclays"). Allauthors contributing to this research report are Research Analysts unless otherwise indicated. The publication date at the top of the report reflects thelocal time where the report was produced and maydifferfrom the release date provided in GMT.Availability of Disclosures:Where any companies are the subject of this research report, for current important disclosures regarding those companies please refer to https://publicresearch.barclays.com or alternatively send a written request to: Barclays Research Compliance, 745 Seventh Avenue, 13th Floor, New York, NY10019 or call +1-212-526-1072.The analysts responsible for preparing this research report have received compensation based upon various factors including the firm's total revenues,a portion of which is generated by investment banking activities, the profitability and revenues of the Markets business and the potential interest of thefirm's investing clients in research with respect to the asset class covered by the analyst.Research analysts employed outside the US byaffiliatesof Barclays Capital Inc. are not registered/qualified as research analysts with FINRA.