印度电力：印度能源交易所（IEX）价格在同一天触底和见顶

Disclosures & DisclaimerThis report must be read with the disclosures and the analyst certifications inthe Disclosure appendix, and with the Disclaimer, which forms part of it.Power demandslowsinApr(demand/peak up2%/5%YoY),plummetsinMay(demand/peakdown4%YoY each)Pricesin solar hoursdropto near zero;non-solar hour pricesspike to INR10, echoingurgent needforBESS to shift supplyc8GW of thermal + gas capacitiesremoved by CEA “temporarily”as they remainednon-operationalon high inputpricesRains dampendemand growth in April and May.Power demand / peak demandgrew a mere c2%/5% in April and declined4%/4%y-o-yin thefirst 25 days of May. Thiswas a result of unseasonal rains in the country reducing cooling needs together with ahigher base of last year due to severe heat waves.We expect to see the impact of thelarge base until the end of May after which we expect demand growth to normalize.Low demand andlarge supply turn exchange prices to near zero.Whiledemandremained weak,incremental supply fromc25GW of solar capacity additionandincreased supply from hydro due to early rainfall causedaverage IEX pricesto drop by22% in May so far,and further drop toINR0.2-0.3 per unitduring a few solar timeblockslast week.However, during the same days,the prices maxed out at INR10 perunit duringmultiple time blocks in non-solar hours.This points toIndia’ssurplus energyin solar hoursbut constrained supply in non-solar hours,causinganeed ofBESS(battery energy storage systems)to shift some of the excess solar generation to thenon-solar hoursproviding price arbitrage.Last week itself, NTPCGreen wona 4-hour80MWbattery tenderat INR0.43-0.46m per MW per month which translates to a perunitcostofcINR4.2-4.5/unitfor 4 hours of batteryif used only one cycle a day and willbehalvedif usedtwice during the day.c8GW of conventional capacity removed“temporarily”.CEA’sreport removed2.8GW of coal-based and5.1GW of gas-based plants from installed capacity as theseplantsremained non-operational for a longtime due to highraw materialprices. Itmentioned thatwhenever these plants start generating again, they will be added back.We believe since these projects havenot generated for a long time, they are not in aposition to immediately startgeneratingdue to their deterioration evenif input pricesnormalize and would require some overhaul to be brought back.However, 4.5GW ofnew capacity was added in April,including 3.3GW of renewables, 0.7GW of nuclear(third plant in the lasttwoyears)and0.2GW ofhydro.Renewable auctionsremain slowas only 1.2GW of capacity was auctioned inApril-Mayas developers look to sign more PPAs for the large capacities won in the last twoyears.Further, 145GW ofrenewable capacity remains under constructionas per CEAasof Mar’25. A meaningful quantum ofthese capacitiesalso face right of wayandtransmission issues and power purchase agreements areyet to be signed.Smartmeteradditionspickuppace.Q4FY25witnessed 3.8 million smart metersgetting installed (sequential growthof58% from Q3). For Q1FY26 so far,3.6m smartmeters have already been installed.IndiaPowerIEX pricesbottom out and peak out in the same day ◆◆◆ Find out more 2Power demandgrew2.1%y-o-yinApril2025Demand declined c4% in first25 days of MayPower demandgrew 3.8% inFY25Power demandinApril2025grewc2.1%y-o-y Source: Elekore, HSBC calculationsAll-India energy requirement growth trend (%)–yearlySource: Elekore, HSBC calculations. Note: FY26 is FY26 till April’25All-India energyrequirement growth trend (%)–monthly (y-o-y)Source: Elekore, HSBC calculations25.5.5.5.5.25.5.AprtAprt 16% of all capacity remainedunder maintenanceindicatingthat govt is actively ensuringthat as much thermalcapacities remain operationalas possiblePeak demandgrewc5%y-o-yinApril2025However, it declined4% inMay so far to c231GWOwing to industrypreparedness, overallpowershortages were negligible 4As heating demandroseinJanuary 2024, someshortagesappearedin thesecond half ofthe month,buttheyeased inFebruary 2024Despitedemandgrowingsharplyin March-July2024,deficits remainednegligibledue tothegovernment’spreparednessShortages negligible sinceOctober2024Thermal generation remainedelevatedin March whilerenewable contributionincreased to 15%Renewablecapacityreached176GWatthe end ofApril2025,or37%oftotalinstalledcapacity Source: Elekore, HSBC. Fiscal year is from April-March 4.4GW of gas plants and2.5GW ofthermal plantsthathave remained non-operational for a long timewere removed by CEASolar capacity reached61%of total renewable capacity inApril2025Of the c3.3GW capacityaddition, 1GWfromwind Source: Elekore, HSBC. Data as ofFebruary2025Renewable capacity trend (%),by typeSource: Elekore, HSBC. Data as ofApril2025Renewable net capacity additions (%),by typeSource: Elekore, HSBC. FY25data is as ofApril2025 63.3GW of capacity was addedinApril2025.700MW ofnuclear capacity,200MW of hydro and350MWof thermal plants werecommissioned in April.Renewable energy contributedc13% of total powerconsumption in2023–flat vs2022 (despite mor