芒果超媒（300413 CH）买入高质量内容推动会员收入增长

Issuer of report:HSBC Qianhai Securities LimitedView HSBC Qianhai Securities Research at:https://www.research.hsbc.comListen to our insightsHSBC Global Research PodcastsMAINTAIN BUYTARGET PRICE(CNY)27.80SHARE PRICE(CNY)22.40(as of26 May 2025)MARKET DATAMarket cap(CNYm)Market cap (USDm)3m ADTV (USDm)FINANCIALS AND RATIOS(CNY)Year toHSBC QH EPSHSBC QH EPS prevChange (%)Consensus EPSPE (x)Dividend yield (%)EV/EBITDA (x)ROE (%)52-WEEK PRICE(CNY)Source: LSEG IBES, HSBC Qianhai Securities estimatesJing Han* (Reg. No. S1700518080001)Head of A-share Media & Internet ResearchHSBC Qianhai Securities Limitedjing01.han@hsbcqh.com.cn+86 10 5795 2344Bruce Sun* (Reg. No. S1700522090001)Analyst, A-share Media & Internet ResearchHSBC Qianhai Securities Limitedbruce.z.j.sun@hsbcqh.com.cn+86 10 5795 2357* Employed by a non-US affiliate of HSBC Securities (USA) Inc, and isnot registered/ qualified pursuant to FINRA regulationsEquitiesMediaChina05/24Target price: 27.80 Find out morePREVIOUS TARGET(CNY)34.70UPSIDE/DOWNSIDE+24.1%41,9045,8364012/2024a12/2025e 12/2026e0.730.97-25.00.9030.71.05.16.211/24High: 30.65 Low: 18.26 Current: 22.40 Free float30%BBG300413 CHRIC300413.SZ12/2027e1.031.171.301.121.28-8.4-8.61.011.131.2321.819.117.21.41.65.54.98.38.916.0024.5033.0005/25 2Financial statementsYear to12/2024a12/2025e12/2026e12/2027eProfit & loss summary(CNYm)Revenue14,08014,69715,80016,826EBITDA7,1306,4446,9927,346Depreciation & amortisation-5,809-5,015-5,202-5,324Operating profit/EBIT1,3201,4291,7902,022Net interest189181200207PBT1,7631,7502,1302,369HSBC QianhaiPBT1,7631,7502,1302,369Taxation-420101-21-24Net profit1,3641,9262,1932,439HSBC Qianhainet profit1,3641,9262,1932,439Cash flow summary(CNYm)Cash flow from operations-251,6881,3931,757Capex-165-50-50-50Cash flow from investment-3,491909090Dividends-412-578-658-732Change in net debt7,427-1,243-1,057-1,335FCF equity-1901,6381,3431,707Balance sheet summary(CNYm)Intangible fixed assets8,6969,2279,5739,798Tangible fixed assets131135138140Currentassets17,87219,20021,14123,338Cash & others5,5086,7507,8079,143Total assets32,53034,39336,68339,106Operating liabilities9,96610,48211,23511,952Gross debt34343434Net debt-5,474-6,717-7,774-9,109Shareholders' funds22,48923,83725,37227,080Invested capital23,59123,78025,14326,376Ratio, growth and per share analysisYear to12/2024a12/2025e12/2026e12/2027eY-o-y % changeRevenue-3.74.47.56.5EBITDA5.7-9.68.55.1Operating profit-16.18.225.213.0PBT-4.7-0.721.711.2HSBC QianhaiEPS-29.341.213.911.2Ratios (%)Revenue/IC (x)0.70.60.60.7ROIC5.26.27.17.6ROE6.28.38.99.3ROA4.25.55.96.2EBITDA margin50.643.844.343.7Operating profitmargin9.49.711.312.0EBITDA/net interest (x)Net debt/equity-24.3-28.1-30.6-33.6Net debt/EBITDA (x)-0.8-1.0-1.1-1.2CF from operations/net debtPer share data(CNY)EPS Rep (diluted)0.731.031.171.30HSBCQianhaiEPS (diluted)0.731.031.171.30DPS0.220.310.350.39Book value12.0212.7413.5614.48Valuation dataYear toEV/salesEV/EBITDAEV/ICPE*PBFCF yield (%)Dividend yield (%)* Based onHSBC QianhaiEPS (diluted)ESGmetricsEnvironmental IndicatorsGHG emissionintensityEnergy intensityCO2reduction policySocial IndicatorsEmployee costs as % ofrevenuesEmployee turnover (%)Diversity policySource: Company data,HSBC Qianhai Securities*GHG intensity and energy intensity are measuredin kg and kWhrespectivelyagainst revenuein USD ‘000sIssuerinformationShare price(CNY)Target price(CNY)RIC(Equity)Bloomberg (Equity)Market cap(USDm)Price relativeSource: HSBCQianhai SecuritiesNote:Priced at close of 26 May 2025Financials & valuation:Mango Excellent Media 3In 2024, Mango’srevenuefell 4% y-o-y to RMB14,080m,whileits attributablenet profit plummeted62% y-o-y to RMB1,364m (its2024attributable net profit declined 29%y-o-ycompared with2023 attributable net profit,excluding the impact of changes in tax policies), 25% below ourprevious estimate, as we underestimated the downward pressure onadvertisers,andwewereoverly optimistic about the growth of the company's content e-commerce business.1Q25 netprofit declined 20% y-o-yto RMB379m,23%below our previousestimate,asadvertisingdemand was weak andthedemand for TV shopping in the company’scontent e-commercebusinesscontinue to shrink in 1Q25. We previously overestimated therevenuecontribution fromboth businesses in 1Q25.Earnings estimates changesRevenue estimate changes:We lower ourrevenue estimates by 7% to RMB14,697m for 2025, and 7% to RMB15,800m for2026, mainly on the back of (1)lower revenue forecasts of advertising business.Thecompany's advertising businessis mainly brand advertising, which is more sensitivetoadvertising demand changes than other forms of advertising.We see downside pressure for itsadvertising business given the sluggish demand in the advertising market;2)lower revenueestimatesofcontent e-commercebusiness.We are more cautious about the company'scontent e commerce profitability given weak domestic consumption and intense competition.With this note, we introduce our 2027revenue estimate of RMB16,826m.Gross margin