当市场关注欧佩克+时，美国页岩油在当前价格下挣扎

Lloyd Byrne * | Equity Analyst(212) 323-7528 | lloyd.byrne@jefferies.comJohn Edelman * | Equity Analyst(212) 336-7412 | jedelman@jefferies.comEmma Schwartz * | Equity Analyst1 (212) 336-7254 | emma.schwartz@jefferies.comTara Bleustein * | Equity Associate+1 (212) 323-7595 | tbleustein@jefferies.comGiacomo Romeo ^ | Equity Analyst44 (0) 20 7548 4727 | giacomo.romeo@jefferies.comTheConclusion:After a volatile fewmonths for crude prices, US shale E&Pshave largely de-risked '25 activity plans tohold flat US production. At $60/bbl WTIwe see production struggling to hold flat,supported by our basin-by-basin and co-by-co models. Although E&Ps will continue topush for lower service costs (were lower in'18), labor makes up much of the increaseandwill be hard to push lower.As aresult, we see continued pressure on 2Hoil markets, tier 3 shale breakeven haspushed higher. If prices, move towards $50our bottoms up model projects productioncontracting by >200 kbpd driven by non-Permian. This would accelerate if that pricelasted (Exh 2). Continued ...With Iranian nuclear negotiations a remaining supply uncertainty, the US has beenramping up pressure on Iran by imposing a one-month deadline to push Iran into a new deal. Thebinary result of unsuccessful talks would result in ~1.5mmb/d of supply off the market, while, if adeal is reached and sanctions are lifted Iran has capacity to raise output by ~0.3-0.4mmb/d fromcurrent levels. While supply increases are driving the bearish narrative, uncertainty of demand is alsobearish with all the key energy agencies indicating proposed tariffs would equate to a demand cutof 0.2-0.4mmb/d (LINK). Chinese oil demand data for March showed an average ~3% y/y increase(+0.5mmb/d), supported by better-than-expected economic growth (1Q GDP 5.4% y/y). Crude oilimports increased by 5% y/y and should fall from here, driven by seasonal refinery maintenance(April/May). In the coming months, we would expect to see US tariffs impacting demand forpetrochemical feedstock, fuel oil and diesel, which could be partially mitigated by potential monetaryeasing and fiscal stimulus. Outside Asia, US products demand showed a ~2% growth of ~400kb/dvs the '23 peak for YTD demand (LINK).Exhibit 3 - '25 Jefferies Liquids Growth Outlook.JEFe2024Crude & Condensate13.21NGLs & Other Liquids6.94Total Liquids20.16Source: EIA; JefferiesExhibit 4 - Average Operator Drilling Costs from SEC reporting and JEF ImpliedCapital Efficiency.05101520253035404550201520162017F&D $/flowing boeSource: Company Reports; JefferiesExhibit 6 - Permian Oil Production mmbopd.1.355.505.705.906.106.306.506.706.904Q221Q23 2Q23 3Q23 4Q23 1Q24 2Q24 3Q24 4Q24 1Q25 2Q25 3Q25 4Q25 1Q26 2Q26 3Q26 4Q26Source: EIA; JefferiesPlease see important disclosure information on pages 5 - 9 of this report.This report is intended for Jefferies clients only. Unauthorized distribution is prohibited. 20254Q244Q2513.3113.4413.457.067.227.2120.3620.6620.650.111.7%-0.01-0.1%0.211.0%0.000.0%YoY Growth (mmb/d)YoY Growth (%)Exit Rate (mmb/d)Exit Rate (%)0.090.7%0.010.0%20182019202020212022202320242025Capital Efficiency ($10k/new boe)Exhibit 5 - Total L48 Shale Oil Production mmbopd.1212.212.412.612.81313.213.413.613.84Q221Q23 2Q23 3Q23 4Q23 1Q24 2Q24 3Q24 4Q24 1Q25 2Q25 3Q25 4Q25 1Q26 2Q26 3Q26 4Q26Source: EIA; JefferiesJEFeEIAExhibit 7 - Bakken Oil Production mmbopd.11.051.11.151.21.251.31.354Q221Q232Q233Q23 4Q23 1Q24Source: EIA; Jefferies Exhibit 8 - EF Oil Production mmbopd.11.051.11.151.21.254Q221Q23 2Q23 3Q23 4Q23 1Q24 2Q24 3Q24 4Q24 1Q25 2Q25 3Q25 4Q25 1Q26 2Q26 3Q26 4Q26Source: EIA; JefferiesExhibit 10 - Model Drivers and Output.Completions Per RigAppalachia regionHaynesville regionBakken regionEagle Ford regionPermian regionRest of Lower 48 StatesYoY Production GrowthAppalachia regionHaynesville regionBakken regionEagle Ford regionPermian regionRest of Lower 48 StatesShale Production (Mbpd)Appalachia regionHaynesville regionBakken regionEagle Ford regionPermian regionRest of Lower 48 StatesRig CountAppalachia regionHaynesville regionBakken regionEagle Ford regionPermian regionRest of Lower 48 StatesSource: EIA; Bloomberg; JefferiesPlease see important disclosure information on pages 5 - 9 of this report.This report is intended for Jefferies clients only. Unauthorized distribution is prohibited. .Source: EIA; Jefferies20241.950.942.022.211.581.9720240.00(0.00)0.010.010.37(0.01)20240.160.031.231.176.302.142024373734.554308100 Exhibit 11 - Model Drivers and Output.Completed WellsAppalachia regionHaynesville regionBakken regionEagle Ford regionPermian regionRest of Lower 48 StatesNew Well Productivity Per Lateral FootAppalachia regionHaynesville regionBakken regionEagle Ford regionPermian regionRest of Lower 48 StatesNew Well Productivity Per Completed WellAppalachia regionHaynesville regionBakken regionEagle Ford regionPermian regionRest of Lower 48 StatesLateral LengthAppalachia regionHaynesville regionBakken regionEagle Ford regionPermian regionRest of Lower 48