JBS美国上市获批

Restricted - External Priya Ohri-Gupta, CFA+1 212 412 3759priya.ohrigupta@barclays.comBCI, US FIGURE 1. We estimate that EBITDA will stay in the $5.8-6.3bn range,with FCF likely to reflect elevated dividendsSource: Barclays ResearchRelative ValueIn terms of valuation, while there has been limited incremental tightening on theannouncement, we expect that this will drive further convergence through TSN and towardsother mid-BBB comps, pointing to room for 20-30bp of compression. While both JBS and TSNshould benefit from their diversified business mix, we continue to view JBS as better placedgiven its geographic footprint. As such, wereaffirmanOverweightrating on JBS.With the PPC 2033s and 2034s trading flat to JBS, 2032s within 7bp, and 2031s through,welower PPC toMarket Weightfrom Overweight. Our fair value is for PPC to trade flat to JBS aswe see the US listing as creating a potential path for PPC to be fully consolidated by JBS overtime.While we see room for compression in TSN 2044s, we think the other 20y bonds andintermediates look more appropriately valued relative to the BBB peer set. In our view, Tysonshould trade better than BBB comps including KHC, SJM, CPB, and about flat to KR. This is inline with where the TSN intermediates, 2047s and 2048s are trading. As such,we lower Tysonto Market Weightfrom Overweight. Comparatively, in light of our Underweight bias on mostpackaged food names (including KHC, CAG and CPB), we expect TSN will perform better. Thecompany repaid $750mn in term loan borrowings in the most recent quarter, bringing grossleverage to 2.6x, and expanded its CP program to $1.75bn while announcing the sale of coldstorage facilities which are expected to generate $250-300mn in proceeds as part of anefforttoreduce network complexity, streamline inventory flow and aid in process simplification.27 May 2025 2 Trade ideas:•In 5y CDS, we recommend selling TSN and buying KHC as we expect decompression of15-20bp.As we discussed recently, given more elevated headline risk to KHC, we expect thename to lag relative to other mid-BBB food comps as a lack of clarity on what actions thecompany could undertake to create value will weigh on performance (seeKraftHeinz:Options beget uncertainty; Lower to UW). Tyson, which is trading flat to KHC in CDS, is betterpositioned given gross leverage of 2.6x (which we project will end the FY at 2.5x).•Sell PPC 2031sas they trade 10bp rich to similar maturity JBS bonds. With other bonds onthe PPC curve trading flat to JBS, we expect these to correct as well.•Sell TSN 2034s and buy JBS 2035s.We recommend rotating into JBS as bonds are trading20bp cheap and see room for compression.FIGURE 4. JBS intermediates look cheap, trading at the wide end of the BBB comp set020406080100120140adj spr, bpSource: Barclays Research•Sell the TSN 2048s and buy TSN 2044s.As we look at the 20y part of the curve, the 2044bonds stand out as cheap both on the curve and relative to the peer set, trading as much as 3 20bp back of the slightly longer-dated TSN 2047s and 2048s. The 2048s look slightly rich,trading the tightest of the three longer-dated TSN bonds and at the tight end of the comp set.FIGURE 5. We recommend swapping within 20y TSN bondsSource: Barclays ResearchBuy JBSBZ 2055s.In the long end, JBS still trades ~30bp wide to most BBB food comps. Weview the credit as better positioned fundamentally and in terms of credit metrics than namessuch as CPB and SJM, particularly as the latter continue to be plagued by headwinds fromchanges in consumer demand as well as on the regulatory front.FIGURE 6. JBS long bonds have room to compress relative to the BBB food peer set020406080100120140160180adj spr, bpSource: Barclays Research.Summary of RatingsBloomberg U.S. Credit IndexOldNewU.S. HG Food and BeverageUnderweightUnderweightJBS USA LUX SA / JBS USA FOOD CO / JBS USA FINANCE INCOverweightOverweightPILGRIM'S PRIDE CORPOverweightMarket WeightTYSON FOODS INCOverweightMarket WeightSource: Barclays Research4 • Analyst(s) Certification(s):I, Priya Ohri-Gupta, CFA, hereby certify (1) that the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect my personal views about any or all of thesubject securities or issuers referred to in this research report and (2) no part of my compensation was, is or will be directly or indirectly related to thespecific recommendations or views expressed in this research report.Important Disclosures:Barclays Research is produced by the Investment Bank of Barclays Bank PLC and itsaffiliates(collectively and each individually, "Barclays").All authors contributing to this research report are Research Analysts unless otherwise indicated. The publication date at the top of the report reflectsthe local time where the report was produced and maydifferfrom the release date provided in GMT.Availability of Disclosures:For current important disclosures regarding any issuers which are the subject of this research report please refer to https://publicresearch.barclay