DSM-Firmenich / Evonik 营养快讯

3Q191Q203Q201Q213Q21 1Q223Q221Q233Q231Q243Q241Q253Q25ERestricted - External EVKn.DE/EVK GROVERWEIGHTEuropean DiversifiedChemicalsPOSITIVEPrice TargetEUR 25.00Price (26-May-25)EUR 20.34Potential Upside/Downside+22.9%Source: Bloomberg, Barclays ResearchDSFIR.AS/DSFIR NAOVERWEIGHTEuropean SpecialtyChemicalsNEUTRALPrice TargetEUR 128.00Price (26-May-25)EUR 99.52Potential Upside/Downside+28.6%Source: Bloomberg, Barclays ResearchEuropean Diversified ChemicalsAlex Stewart, CFA+44 (0)20 3555 4957alex.stewart@barclays.comBarclays, UKAnil Shenoy+91 (0)22 6175 2487anil.shenoy@barclays.comBarclays, UKKatie Richards+44 (0)20 3555 0315kathryn.richards@barclays.comBarclays, UKEuropean Specialty ChemicalsAlex Sloane+44 (0)20 3555 0645alexander.sloane@barclays.comBarclays, UKSetu Sharda+ 91 (0)22 6175 1934setu.sharda@barclays.comBarclays, UK FIGURE 2. m2m FY25 Net pricing model for Nutrition & Care (€mn)FIGURE 3. Methionine spot prices have been increasing in 2025 so far12345May-21Aug-21Nov-21Feb-22May-22Aug-22Nov-22Feb-23May-23Aug-23Nov-23Feb-24May-24Aug-24Nov-24Feb-25May-25China ($/t)Europe (€/t)USA ($/t)Source: FeedAdditivePrices, Barclays ResearchSeveral companies in Europe have been increasing their prices this week. Evonik, and otherChinese players, had raised prices in China earlier this yearaftera fire at a supplier's plant.Evonik is also investing low double-digit million euros for a technical upgrade at its Europeanmethionine plant, which would lead to a partial shutdown for 8-10 weeks between May-July2025. On the Q1 call, Evonik spoke of other companies like NHU also placing some of theirplants into maintenance. However, according to FeedAdditivePrices, some of these plants willstart coming up in the next few months. Yet, Evonik raised prices of methionine globally by 5-8%recently which, if passed on, will benefit Q3 EBITDA as the majority of Q2 contracts are alreadydone. According to FeedAdditivePrices, more than 90% of Q2 volumes and ~50% of Q3 volumesare already contracted. In their CMD on May 22, the management of Evonik indicated that Q3would be "not-too-bad" compared to H1. As a reminder, the company has baked in anormalization of methionine prices in H2 in the base case of their guidance.Vitamins/DSM-FirmenichVitamin E spot prices in Europe have started to come down gradually, with prices falling to€12.25/Kg (27-May) from €12.50/Kg (21-May) and €14.75/Kg in April. Vitamin A also continues tocorrect with spot prices €24/Kg (27-May) from €26/Kg (21-May) and €32/Kg in April. Vitamin B2spot prices were flat vs last week at €16/Kg (27-May). The elevated prices of vitamin A and Ehave been driven by the fire at a BASF plant last year. BASF has announced plans to restartvitamin E production in Germany in May 2025, which is slightly earlier than the initial guidanceof July. It is expected that it will take some time to ramp up to full capacity.2 Source: FeedAdditivePrices, Barclays Research27 May 2025 We run a correlation of spot vitamin prices impact with a 3-month lag and DSFIR's ANH (Animal,Nutrition & Health) EBITDA change YoY (Figure 6). For this analysis, we have used a fixedcapacity and blended prices, incorporating a mix of vitamin capacities. Given that vitamin priceshave remained elevated throughout Q1, hypothetically, the correlation predicts +€120mn Q2EBITDA change based on average Q1 prices. We caveat that bulk vitamins account for only one-third of ANH. Therefore, changes in performance within the premix and performance solutionsegments could distort the correlation. Additionally, the vitamin transformation plan initiated in2023, which aims to save €200 million, may also impact the correlation.FIGURE 6. DSM-Firmenich's ANH EBITDA change vs. EBITDA change predicted with spot prices on 3-month lag-200-150-100-500501001502002Q233Q234Q231Q242Q243Q244Q241Q252Q25EANH EBITDA change YoYEBITDA change predicted with 3 month lag€mnSource: FeedAdditivePrices, Barclays Research3 AppendixWe have found a correlation of 0.87 between the net pricing in Nutrition & Care and EBITDAimpact calculated from the change in methionine prices y/y. However, we note that net pricingin Nutrition & Care is not explicitly reported by Evonik, and we back-calculate it by deductingimpact from all other factors (like volumes, FX, M&A, inflation etc) from the absolute change inEBITDA y/y. We calculate the impact from methionine spot prices by multiplying change inprices y/y with Evonik's capacity of ~700Kt and assuming a utilization of 75%. We weightcapacity and prices by regions.Our assumption behind using the net pricing for Nutrition & Care is that methionine is the swingfactor in the division and hence most of the net pricing change can be explained by methionine.Also, we have used a stable utilisation rate of 75% while calculating the EBITDA impact frommethionine prices. This is a drawback as utilisation rates keep changing. However, the goodcorrelation seen historically gives us confidence in our analysis. 4 Analyst(s) Cert